The states of Aguascalientes and Querétaro are on a roll, leading Mexico in economic growth and growing considerably faster than the national average, data from Citibanamex shows.
In its State GDP Growth 2017-2018 report, the financial group said Aguascalientes led with 6.1% annual average growth in the six-year period starting 2010. Automotive manufacturing was the main force behind the strong growth.
Querétaro followed with a 5.1% growth rate, while nationwide the figure was 2.9%.
Querétaro’s industrial sector — backed by a construction boom and a strong manufacturing industry focused on the export market— grew by 11.8% and was the single largest impetus for the surge.
The construction industry grew by 28.5% mainly due to the completion of public works while manufacturing increased by 6%, driven by activity in the aeronautical, food and chemical industries.
The economic upturn also created more jobs in the state this year, with registrations up 8.3% at the Social Security Institute (IMSS) in the first 11 months of the year, compared to 4.4% nationally.
Aguascalientes is expected to grow by 5.6% next year and Querétaro by 4.9%.
Quintana Roo is projected to be the third best performing state economy in 2018 with 4.5% growth followed by Guanajuato with 4.3% and San Luis Potosí with 4.2%.
While Aguascalientes recorded 6.9% growth in the first half of this year, that figure was only good enough for fourth place nationally.
Baja California Sur recorded the strongest economic growth in the first half of 2017 with a 9.2% jump followed by Puebla with 7.6% and Morelos with 7.5%.
However, on projections Aguascalientes will reclaim the top spot next year.
The top five performing economies of 2017 by year’s end are projected to be Baja California Sur (8.4% projected growth), Puebla (6.7%), Querétaro (5.4%), Aguascalientes (5.2%) and San Luis Potosí (4.9%).
Baja California Sur — where the service sector dominated by tourism contributes to two-thirds of the state’s GDP — is on track to claim top spot in 2017 despite a surge in violent crime that has affected key destinations such as La Paz and Los Cabos.
However, its growth is expected to halve to 4.2% next year.
The economies of 30 of Mexico’s 32 federal entities are expected to grow next year with only the gulf coast states of Campeche and Tabasco predicted to buck the trend.
The Campeche economy will contract by 6.6% in 2018, according to the Citibanamex forecast, while Tabasco’s economy will shrink by a similar figure of 6.3%.
Both states, along with Chiapas, Guerrero, Hidalgo, Oaxaca, Tamaulipas, Tlaxcala and Veracruz, recorded downturns in the first half of 2017 and only Tamaulipas is projected to recover by year’s end to show very slight growth of 0.3%.
Growth for Mexico as a whole is projected to be 2.4% in 2018, half a percentage point down on the figure recorded from 2010 to 2016, but slightly better than the 2.1% growth projected for this year.