The candidates: Anaya, López Obrador, Rodríguez and Meade. The candidates: Anaya, López Obrador, Rodríguez and Meade.

AMLO leads in latest poll with 52%, twice that of nearest rival

His support is up 4% from the previous poll on May 2

With a month to go before the election, left-wing presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador has surpassed the 50% mark in the latest poll by the newspaper Reforma.

AMLO, as he is widely known, was the choice for president of 52% of those polled between May 24 and 27, up 4% from Reforma’s previous poll on May 2.

He polled twice the support of his nearest rival, right-left coalition candidate Ricardo Anaya, who had 26% support, down four points from May 2.

Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate José Antonio Meade gained two points to win 19% support, while independent Jaime Rodríguez Calderón went from 2% to 3%.

The results did not include the 17% who did not answer the question, for whom would you vote for president if the election were held today.

“Unless there is something really heroic, tragic or absolutely imponderable . . . this race is indeed as over as it can be,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a political analyst and associate professor at CIDE, a public research center in Mexico City. “In general, AMLO’s advantage is too big and seems too consolidated. The other candidates have not been able to connect with a majority.”

López Obrador’s party also gained. Asked for which party they would vote in an election for Deputies to the lower house of Congress, 42% chose Morena, up from 36% at the beginning of the month.

The National Action Party polled 20%, down from 24%, and the PRI 18%, up from 16%.

Asked which candidate stood “for the change you want,” López Obrador scored 61%, up from 54% May 2. Anaya dropped from 31% to 26%.

Voters will go to the polls on July 1.

Source: Reforma (sp), Dallas News (en)

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