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Hurricane season: expect a few more this year. Hurricane season: expect a few more this year.

Conagua forecasts four more cyclones than average for this year

10 hurricanes predicted for the eastern Pacific, seven for the Atlantic

The National Water Commission (Conagua) is predicting 32 tropical cyclones will affect Mexico this hurricane season, four more than the average recorded in recent years.

Conagua director Roberto Ramírez de la Parra told attendants at a national civil protection meeting in Acapulco yesterday that 18 of the cyclones are forecast for the eastern Pacific Ocean and 14 for the Atlantic.

Of the Pacific weather events, eight are expected to be tropical storms, four are predicted to be Category 1 or 2 hurricanes and six are forecast to be hurricanes reaching an intensity of Category 3 or above.

In the Atlantic, seven tropical storms, four Category 1 or 2 hurricanes and three Category 3 or higher hurricanes are predicted.

Between four and six of the tropical cyclones are expected to have a direct impact on the Mexican coast, Ramírez said.

He added that the first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which doesn’t officially start until June 1, formed yesterday.

Subtropical Storm Alberto was 105 kilometers north-northwest of the western tip of Cuba at 1:00pm CDT today and has moved away from the Yucatán coast in the last few hours.

The United States National Hurricane Center expects the storm to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late today or tomorrow before approaching the northern Gulf Coast of the United States late Monday.

On the Pacific side, the hurricane season officially began May 15.

More stormy weather may be in store for next year, depending on El Niño.

The Conagua chief said there was a 55% chance that the weather phenomenon will return in the fall of 2018 and a 67% probability for the spring of 2019.

The latter eventuality, Ramírez said, could lead to a higher number of tropical cyclones and heavier rainfall next year.

He also said the Valley of Mexico, in which the metropolitan area of Mexico City is located, has received 30% more rain than average during April and May.

Source: El Universal (sp), CBS News (en)

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