Poll puts Morena in the lead for president. Poll puts Morena in the lead.

Poll: 80% say it’s time for ruling party to go

Morena continues to lead as party of choice for president

With just a year to go until the election that will decide President Enrique Peña Nieto’s successor, things are not looking good for the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI): 80% of those polled in a new survey said it was time for a different party to govern Mexico.

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The national poll by the Reforma newspaper group found that the party most likely to take the nation’s reins is the leftist National Regeneration Movement known as Morena, led by candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

If an election were held now, the poll found, it would be third time lucky for the Tabasco-born firebrand and the man widely known by his initials AMLO would become Mexico’s new president.

Reforma surveyed 1,200 Mexican adults by telephone between July 13 and 16.

When asked which party they would vote for if a presidential election were held today, respondents showed a clear preference for the AMLO-led Morena with 28% indicating they would vote for the party, down one point from another Reforma poll in January.

In Mexico’s electoral system, where there is no second-round run-off, that would mean López Obrador would become Mexico’s new president.

The right-wing National Action Party (PAN) followed with 23%.

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PAN has provided two recent presidents. Vicente Fox broke a 71-year stranglehold on power by the PRI in 2000 and ruled until 2006.  His successor, Felipe Calderón, was in power from 2006 to 2012.

The incumbent PRI came in third with 17% while unnamed independent candidates garnered 10% support among those surveyed.

The Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) that López Obrador led in the last two presidential elections languished well behind with just 6% of respondents saying it would be their party of choice.

Apart from Morena, none of the major parties has decided who their presidential candidate will be.

However, the response to another question gave a perhaps even starker indication of the dire predicament faced by the PRI.

When asked whether they thought the party should continue governing the country or that the party of government should change, a resounding 80% of respondents said it should change.

Just 13% indicated that they believed that PRI rule should continue.

The poll also surveyed name and image recognition among voters for 18 potential candidates it proposed, finding that only four were recognized by more than half of those surveyed and none had greater positive than negative images.

Again López Obrador led the way.

Only 13% said that they didn’t know him, making him the most recognizable candidate, with 33% of respondents saying that they had a very good or good opinion of him.

However, that figure was outweighed by 38% who responded that their opinion of him was bad or very bad.

Margarita Zavala, the most favored contender of the PAN and wife of former president Calderón, was the second most recognized potential candidate but only 23% of respondents said they had a very good or good opinion of her compared with 28% who responded bad or very bad.

Mexico City Mayor Miguel Ángel Mancera, who was recently touted as the most favored politician to lead a proposed right wing-left wing PAN-PRD coalition, also had a poor positive to negative differential of 18% and 25%, respectively.

Interior Secretary Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong, who seems the most likely PRI candidate at this stage, was rated similarly with 15% saying their opinion of him was positive compared to 30% who responded unfavorably.

All other potential candidates proposed by the poll, including PAN national president Ricardo Anaya, Foreign Affairs Secretary Luis Videgaray and Nuevo León Governor Jaime Rodríguez, did not enjoy name recognition by more than half the respondents.

Tellingly, in a variety of hypothetical scenarios proposed with different candidates pitted against each other, López Obrador always came out on top.

That suggests that parties have their work cut out for them to find a candidate who will be competitive against the upstart Morena.

However, the often controversial and divisive Morena leader has led in the polls before to no avail and as always, the biggest challenge for him and his rivals — whoever they may be — is to win the only poll that really counts, that on election day next July.

Mexico News Daily

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  • Maria Guadelupe

    I would vote for any candidate willing to stop the war on drug, the fuero, clean up the dysfunctional justice where there is none because the courts are a business and who would make his police, all of them work for the people.

    • Joshua Rodriguez

      couldn’t have said it better Yess i would vote for the same like all the people are doing and probably all the party’s are crooked so whats the use they all promise the same and do the worst.

  • Güerito

    Good.

  • cooncats

    Just a technical comment: A poll in which one party has an identified and widely known candidate versus the other parties that have not chosen candidates is not likely to be indicative of what things will look like when all the parties have candidates. This is interesting but don’t give it too much weight at this point.

    Having said that, if the reports of big time corruption that are posted here almost weekly and sometimes more than weekly are accurate and not leaving anyone out regardless of party label, it is hard not to conclude the PRI is by far the most corrupt and thieving in this country. Perhaps people are finally getting tired of it

    And then there’s the known skill at vote buying and ballot box stuffing of the PRI. That won’t show up in the polls but it sure will show up in the polling places on election day.

  • I voted for Lopez Obrador in the last election and will vote for him again. He proved himself as a great administrator and leader when he was Jefe of Mexico city. He implemented a lot of very good programs and improved life in Mexico city. I think he has demonstrated his ability to stand up to Trump. He has said that it would be better to withdraw from NAFTA than negotiate at a disadvantage and his ideas about purchasing the agricultural products that Mexico buys from the US from Argentina, Brazil and Chile make a lot of sense.

    • cooncats

      I wouldn’t cite the kind of inflexibility that would cause a politician to kill a trade relationship that is beneficial to Mexico to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars per year as a desirable asset. While I find his populism and desire to fight the endemic corruption here very attractive, if you follow Amlo you come to see his dogmatism could result in the kind of political chaos we see in the U.S. now.

      A very good example is his inflexibility in forming a coalition that would have won easily in Mexico City and really damaged the PRI.

      Does “balancing the relationship” with the U.S. mean that Mexico will begin to respect U.S. immigration law the way they expect Americans to respect Mexico’s? Does “balancing the relationship” mean that Mexico will seek to end the several hundred billion dollar per year flow of money southward?

      Be careful of what you ask for, you may get it. Ask a Venezuelan what this means.

      • Güerito

        It was the state of Mexico.

        PRD has become a joke. It polls below 10% nationlly. Little known fact: Before Mancera, the last five Mayors of Mexico City were all members of PRD when they took office, but all five have resigned from PRD. Mancera ran under the PRD banner, but is not a registered member. (Mancera completely lacks charisma and is not liked in home base of Mexico City)

        The leadership of PRD has sided with PRI on most of the big issues over the last 4 or 5 years. The PRD candidate in the State of Mexico was receiving funds and support from PRI to boost him in an attempt to keep down the Morena vote. He got 18% of the vote and is now running around touting himself as a coalition candidate for President!

        The presidential campaign next year is coming down to the entire ruling political and social class in Mexico v. AMLO. That’s an easy choice for me.

        The truth is, as I noted a few times during the US presidential campaign, AMLO has a lot in common with Trump. They both terrify the corrupt ruling elites.

        • cooncats

          He didn’t necessarily have to coalition with PRD. And BTW although he takes heat for screaming about the vote buying and fraud, he’s right about it. The PRI are like the American
          Democrats in this regard. You can’t win close elections with them because they are masters of stuffing the ballot box.

          In his shoes, I would have sucked it up and done whatever necessary to win that election. It would have pretty much guaranteed a much bigger win next year. Remember, you can’t change stuff if you don’t get elected. Any way you look at it, it was the golden opportunity.

          Don’t get me wrong, I think this country needs a serious shaking up and maybe Amlo is the guy to do it. The corruption has become an epidemic. I wonder though if a guy who has a poor history of working with others will be able to get anything done if elected. Most likely the PRI/PAN will continue to control the legislature.

          He does have a good record from Mexico City. But he will have to bend a little and form a coalition with someone to win next year. How about MC? They are doing good things in Guadalajara.

          One thing for sure, the fabled Chinese curse about living in “interesting” times seems more true than ever on both sides of the border. Maybe we need to go hide out in Bolivia.

  • John

    PRI (17%) + PRD (6%) + VERDE (5%) = 28% Coalition.

    Still much work to do!

  • gypsyken

    AMLO will stand up effectively to the utterly disgusting, despicable, abhorrent, loathsome, venal, corrupt, and racist orange-headed fascist monster who occupies the U.S. White House, and he will inspire others to do so, if the monster has not been removed, one way or another, by the time of the election, which it increasingly and hopefully seems may happen.

    • Güerito

      AMLO will stand up effectively to the utterly disgusting, despicable, abhorrent, loathsome, venal, corrupt, and racist ruling class in Mexico.

      That’s why I support him.

    • cooncats

      Raving nutcase Ken.

  • TioDon

    Different party, same criminals…

    • Joshua Rodriguez

      AMEN

  • JP

    It is time to have honest peoples governing Mexico. And that is impossible because mexicains have corruption in their blood. It is more easy to rob than to work, etc.

  • jwd

    There is always talk about Political Corruption in Mexico. In my view, Political Corruption is Mexico is not the problem, it is a symptom of the problem. The entire culture is corrupt, that is the problem! What the politicians do is simply an extension of that problem. It makes no difference who is in power, money will be stolen and friends/family will be gifted, it is the Mexican way! When the population begins looking at themselves and the corrupt activities they participate in and how they need to change, things at the top begin to change, not before!

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