A new opinion poll shows that leftist presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador has 42% support among voters, a lead of almost 11 points over his nearest rival.
The survey, conducted by the newspaper El Universal and the consulting firm Berumen, puts right-left coalition candidate Ricardo Anaya in second place with 31.1% support followed by the ruling party’s José Antonio Meade, who has 21.9%.
Independent candidate Margarita Zavala lags well behind her three opponents, with just 5% support.
The “effective preference” percentages were calculated by removing the 17.4% of responses given by respondents didn’t know who they would vote for or cited a name that will not appear on the ballot.
López Obrador, or AMLO as he is widely known, has long maintained a strong lead over his rivals, although this poll indicates that the race has tightened slightly in comparison with a survey by the newspaper El Financiero last month, when the former Mexico City mayor had an 18-point lead.
Several analysts, including financial company Goldman Sachs, have predicted that the third-time aspirant will most likely win the July 1 election.
Almost 43% of those contacted for the El Universal / Berumen poll agreed, while 21.1% said Meade would win and 20.5% indicated Anaya would prevail.
The poll also determined which party within each coalition that the three leading candidates represent will generate the highest number of votes for them.
For López Obrador, candidate for the “Together We Will Make History” coalition, the party he founded and leads — the National Regeneration Movement, or Morena — will contribute to 65.1% of his overall tally, according to the poll.
Almost one of three votes for the political veteran, or 32.4%, will come from Labor Party (PT) supporters while the socially conservative Social Encounter Party (PES) will provide just 2.5% of AMLO’s total votes.
For Anaya, candidate for the “For Mexico in Front” coalition, the poll said that 81.9% of his votes would come from the National Action Party (PAN) he previously headed as president, with just 11.1% and 7% coming from the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) and Citizens’ Movement (MC) respectively.
As expected, the poll indicated that the vast majority of Meade’s support will come from the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), contributing to 92.4% of his overall tally, followed by the Ecological Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) with 7.1%.
The New Alliance Party (Panal), created by former SNTE teachers’ union boss Elba Esther Gordillo, will account for just 0.4% of the “Everyone for Mexico” coalition candidate’s vote, the poll said.
Two other questions posed by the poll also reflected the ruling party’s current unpopularity among voters.
When asked which candidate and which party they would never vote for, 40.2% and 47% of respondents said Meade and the PRI respectively.
Just over 21% of those polled said they would never vote for López Obrador while 14.7% said the same about Anaya, suggesting that he is the least disliked of the major party candidates.
In addition, just under half of all respondents (49.3%) said that the PRI is the worst party, more than five times the number who said that the PAN (9.5%) or Morena (9.3%) is the worst.
Paradoxically, the PRI came out on top when those surveyed were asked which party has initiated laws or programs that have benefited them.
El Universal suggested the result is likely due to the high number of PRI governments at local and state levels. However, it should be noted that 37% of respondents — the largest cohort by far — said that no party had benefited them.
The survey results were based on 1,256 interviews conducted between April 3 and 5 with men and women aged over 18 who are eligible to vote.
Source: El Universal (sp)