Friday, January 24, 2025

Are US tariffs a ploy to speed up USMCA review? Thursday’s mañanera recapped

The stability of the Mexican peso in recent days and the upcoming USMCA review were among the issues President Claudia Sheinbaum spoke about at her Thursday morning press conference.

Reporters also got an update on ridership numbers for the Maya Train railroad, the previous federal government’s most ambitious infrastructure project.

Claudia Sheinbaum talking to reporters about Donald Trump wanting to speed up USMCA reveiw. She's holding two fingers up as she rests her right arm on the presidential podium in the National Palace
Sheinbaum pointed out that Trump himself acknowledged in a memo issued Monday that USMCA review won’t happen until 2026 — and that the trade pact’s scheduled review isn’t the same as a renegotiation. (Daniel Augusto/Cuartoscuro)

USMCA review is in 2026, Sheinbaum stresses after WSJ report that Trump is pushing for early renegotiation 

The Wall Street Journal reported this week that “President Trump is using the threat of imposing stiff tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico as soon as next week to pressure the two nations to start renegotiating a continental trade deal, according to people familiar with the matter.”

The WSJ noted that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, “is up for statutory review in 2026,” but citing its sources said that “Trump hopes to renegotiate it sooner.”

For her part, Sheinbaum highlighted that a memorandum Trump issued on Monday — the “America First Trade Policy” — acknowledges that the USMCA review will take place in 2026.

“It’s not even a renegotiation,” she added, although Trump has said he wants to renegotiate the three-way pact.

Sheinbaum said that work related to the 2026 review is starting but declared that there would be no reason to bring the review forward.

A sign showing the rates for buying and selling US dollars in Mexico
Sheinbaum also discussed the Mexican peso, pointing out that the currency has been doing better and better against the U.S. dollar since Donald Trump took office Monday. (Graciela López Herrera/Cuartoscuro)

“What normally begins is a process of consultation with business people, workers, different sectors of society to see how the trade agreement has worked,” she said.

Trump’s memo directed the United States Trade Representative to “assess the impact of the USMCA on American workers, farmers, ranchers, service providers, and other businesses and make recommendations regarding the United States’ participation in the agreement.”

Sheinbaum highlights that the peso hasn’t depreciated since Trump took office 

Sheinbaum noted that Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate fell to 3.69% in the first half of January, and highlighted that the peso hasn’t depreciated against the US dollar since Donald Trump was sworn in as U.S. president on Monday.

The peso “could have” lost ground following “the arrival of President Trump” but its value “has been maintained,” she said.

“That means there is confidence and that the Mexican economy is doing well, it’s strong,” Sheinbaum said even though economic growth slowed in 2024 and is forecast to slow further this year.

The peso — which depreciated significantly in the second half of last year — has in fact appreciated since Trump commenced his second term.

According to Bank of Mexico data, the USD:MXN rate at the end of the trading day on Thursday was 20.32. Compared to the USD:MXN closing rate of 20.77 last Friday, the peso has appreciated 2.2% this week.

One factor favoring the peso is that Trump didn’t follow through with his threat to impose a 25% tariff on Mexican exports on the first day of his second term. However, he said Monday that his administration could levy a duty of that size on Mexican exports starting Feb. 1.

Maya Train ridership exceeded target in 2024, says railroad director 

Oscar David Lozano Águila, the Maya Train's general director at the press conference of Mexico's President Sheinbaum. Behind him as he speaks is a graphic with statistics about the Maya Train
Oscar David Lozano Águila, the Maya Train’s general director, told reporters Thursday that the government-run train has so far transported around 790,000 passengers. (Daniel Augusto/Cuartoscuro)

Óscar David Lozano Águila, general director of the state-owned Maya Train company, presented data that showed that 791,730 Maya Train tickets were sold between Dec. 16, 2023 — when the railroad partially opened — and Jan. 20, 2025.

“We’ve managed to transport around 790,000 people. The target in 2024 was 700,000, we exceeded it,” he said.

Lozano said that the ridership goal this year is 1.2 million passengers. The railroad — which links cities and towns in Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán, Quintana Roo and Chiapas — is now fully operational. The government’s long-term target is 3 million passengers per year.

Data presented by Lozano showed that the busiest stations on the Maya Train railroad are the Mérida (Teya) and Cancún (Airport) stations. The Mérida-Cancún route has been the most popular in the 13 months since the railroad opened, closely followed by the Cancún-Mérida route.

By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies ([email protected])

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