The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) announced a surprise cut to its key interest rate on Thursday, just hours after data showed that headline inflation reached its highest level in over a year in July.
In a split decision, the Banxico board voted to lower the central bank’s benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.75%. It was the second cut this year, after a 25-basis-point reduction in March.
In a statement announcing its latest cut, Banxico said that decreasing core inflation “better reflects the inflation trend” than headline inflation, which has been increasing.
It noted that the annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, declined for an 18th consecutive month in July to reach 4.05%.
The annual headline rate was much higher at 5.57%, increasing for a fifth consecutive month in July to reach its highest level since May 2023.
Banxico said that its board “assessed the behavior of inflation and its determinants, as well as of inflation expectations” before three of the five members, including Bank Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, voted in favor of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut.
The bank said that headline inflation is still expected to converge to its 3% target in the fourth quarter of 2025, although it acknowledged that its forecasts for this year and next are subject to a range of upside and downside risks.
Banxico said that the upside risks include persistence of core inflation; greater foreign exchange depreciation; greater cost-related pressures; climate-related impacts; and the intensification of geopolitical conflicts.
It also noted that Mexico’s economy slowed in the second quarter, “thus prolonging the weakness that has been observed since the end of 2023.”
“The balance of risks to growth of economic activity remains biased to the downside,” Banxico added.
The bank said that “although the outlook for inflation still calls for a restrictive monetary policy stance, its evolution implies that it is adequate to reduce the level of monetary restriction.”
“Thus, with the presence of all its members, the Board decided by majority to lower the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.75%,” Banxico said.
The central bank also said that its board “foresees that the inflationary environment may allow for discussing reference rate adjustments” at future monetary policy meetings.
The interest rate cut ‘doesn’t make sense’
Some economic analysts asserted that the Bank of Mexico’s decision to lower its key interest rate lacked logic.
Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Mexico’s Banco Base, said in a post to X that it “doesn’t make sense” for Banxico to cut its interest rate given that it increased its forecast for headline inflation in the final quarter of this year to 4.4% from 4%.
Banco de México subió la expectativa de inflación. Ahora esperan un promedio de 4.4% para el último trimestre del año.
Perdón pero no tiene sentido que esperen una mayor inflación y recorten la tasa de interés 🤷🏻♀️ pic.twitter.com/N0koWmhYy3— Gabriela Siller Pagaza (@GabySillerP) August 8, 2024
In a subsequent post, she described the decision as a “mistake” and asserted that it could diminish the central bank’s reputation.
Abraham Vela, an economist and academic, said that simultaneously increasing the forecast for inflation and lowering interest rates was a “monetary aberration.”
Alfredo Coutiño, Latin America director at Moody’s Analytics, wrote on X that Banxico had taken “an unnecessary risk.”
“In the face of turbulent financial conditions and deteriorating expectations for the peso, today’s monetary decision is imprudent and shows a lack of commitment with the top mandate of price stability,” he said.
“… The monetary decision is completely inconsistent with the inflationary conditions. On one side, Banxico ‘significantly’ corrects to the upside inflation estimates for the rest of the year and on the other it eases monetary conditions. Apparently the monetary [policy] work of the three members of the board [who voted in favor of a cut] is not governed by the monetary mandate of price stability,” Coutiño wrote.
“The sole mandate of Banxico doesn’t include economic growth or public finances as a priority,” he added.
Some analysts predicted that the central bank would cut its key interest rate today, but the majority of those surveyed by both Citibanamex and Reuters forecast that the second reduction of 2024 would come later in the year.
Peso strengthens after Bank of Mexico announcement
Reuters reported that the Mexican peso depreciated immediately after the announcement of the interest rate cut to trade at 19.01 to the US dollar.
However, the peso subsequently strengthened to reach 18.90 to the greenback at 5 p.m. Mexico City time. That rate represents an appreciation of just over 2% for the peso compared to its closing position on Wednesday.
The Bank of Mexico’s decision to cut its key rate — which will take effect on Friday — will reduce the difference between the Banxico rate and the United States Federal Reserve’s rate from 550 to 525 basis points.
The large gap between the two rates has benefited the peso for an extended period as it has made Mexico an attractive destination for investors, including those engaged in carry trade. In that context, it is somewhat surprising that the peso appreciated on the same day that Banxico announced an interest rate cut.
The central bank’s new inflation outlook
Banxico increased its headline inflation forecasts for the current quarter as well as Q4 of 2024 and Q1 of 2025.
- Q3 2024: forecast increased to 5.2% from 4.5% at the end of June.
- Q4 2024: forecast increased to 4.4% from 4% previously.
- Q1 2025: forecast increased to 3.7% from 3.5%.
- Q2 2025: forecast maintained at 3.3%.
- Q3 2025: forecast maintained at 3.1%.
- Q4 2025: forecast maintained at 3%.
Core inflation forecasts
Banxico made just one change to its core inflation forecasts, making a lower prediction than previously for the current quarter.
- Q3 2024: forecast decreased to 4% from 4.1% at the end of June.
- Q4 2024: forecast maintained at 3.9%.
- Q1 2025: forecast maintained at 3.6%.
- Q2 2025: forecast maintained at 3.3%.
- Q3 2025: forecast maintained at 3.1%.
- Q4 2025: forecast maintained at 3%.
Mexico News Daily
There was logic behind the decision – core inflation is trending down (the headline rate includes volatile NON core prices : oil, some agri produce and other commodities)
Is there that much difference between 11% and 10.75%? Both still unbelievably high and discouraging to domestic businesses.
I always find it a mystery in the use of the term core inflation as if the increaes of food and fuel is not inflationary,,,,,,BULLSHIT!
Is there any benefit for the current President?
Part of this is what caused the US market to tank for a few days last week. They call it the ‘carry trade’ but was a pure arbitrage. World wide investors were borrowing the yen at a zero interest rate and buying the peso bonds at 11%. The Japan bank moved up the interest rate on the yen and the Mexican government lowered the bond rate. This caused a huge volatility in the two currencies and the perceived profit on the arbitrage was washed away by the currency loss.
Regarding the high bond rate, that was nothing more than AMLO rewarding his supporters. There is no possible way a government can support such a high interest rate. Most Mexicans can’t borrow money, if they could, they couldn’t afford to pay the interest rates. Adjusting the interest rate has little effect on the buying habits of Mexicans. Sheinbaum will get this squared away and the peso will go back to 20-1.