I think 2024 is going to be a significant year for Mexico, so I’m going out on a limb to make some predictions for this year.
Below you’ll find my 17 predictions of the top news stories in Mexico this year. Please note that I am not expressing an opinion on whether these are good or bad things to come, but just my best guess at what will dominate the headlines.
- The nearshoring boom will continue to accelerate and Mexico will receive a record amount of foreign direct investment.
- One if not two Chinese auto companies will announce massive plant investments in Mexico.
- Increased discussion and tension will arise among USMCA partners (U.S., Canada, Mexico) over the rapidly increasing Chinese investment and imports into Mexico.
- The NBA will confirm that an expansion team will come to Mexico City.
- Claudia Sheinbaum will win the presidential election in a landslide.
- The Mexican peso will not move significantly in reaction to the election results (as it often does).
- The Maya Train project will be more positively viewed by the end of the year and increasingly be recognized as a strategically important investment for the region.
- The Tulum airport will receive a surprisingly high number of new flights and become a major flight destination.
- The Isthmus of Tehuantepec train will get increased interest and attention due to continued problems with the Panama canal.
- Mexico will become an increasingly important topic in the upcoming U.S. elections. Issues like immigration, fentanyl, and drug cartels will cause some candidates to threaten significant actions against the country.
- Despite the campaign rhetoric, Mexico will increase its lead and share as the largest trading partner of the United States.
- Tesla will accelerate its plant investment in Monterrey.
- The number of U.S. and Canadian citizens moving to Mexico will continue to accelerate.
- A record number of international tourists will come to Mexico.
- The Bank of Mexico will finally begin to lower interest rates in the first quarter of the year, which should weaken the peso gradually.
- The Mexican peso will end the year above 18 to the US dollar.
- Mexico will end 2024 as the 10th largest economy in the world (moving up 2 places from 2023 and 4 places from 2022).
What do you think? How many of my predictions do you agree or disagree with? In the spirit of dialogue and debate, I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for over 27 years.
I think and hope that you nailed it.
Well written and well thought out. Cheers
You make some good predictions here but I wish I could share your optimism. I agree with you that Claudia Sheinbaum will probably win by a landslide in the June elections because: a) She has had all the financial resources of the AMLO administration to back her campaign and b) her opponent has run out of steam too soon. Xóchitl Gálvez, had all the right credentials coming from a humble indigenous background turned educated and successful entrepreneur and Senator but she should have stuck with her initial plan to run as Mayor of CDMX and not for the Presidency where she is clearly out of her depth. And finally c) MORENA will do everything in its power to assure that it remains in office for another six years whether by fair means or foul in order to consolidate its agenda of destroying democracy by removing any possible counterbalances to ensure its survival (Electoral Tribunal, INAI, Supreme Court etc.) in its quest to establish an authoritarian one-party state. Sadly Mexico will not have any effective defenses in place to stop this. Look what happened when the new airport was cancelled before AMLO had even formally assumed office back in 2018. No institution was capable of reversing such an arbitrary move which will prove to be the cause of incalculable damage to Mexico’s future development as a major international communications hub as well as offering a decent first impression to anybody arriving at the door of world’s 14th most important economy.
I would also question all the positive hype about “Nearshoring”. Once a foreign investor realizes how the deck is stacked against him in a court of law added to the fact that deep down there is an institutional loathing of anything that smells remotely of private enterprise Mexico will be like a Ferrari with an empty gas tank (i.e. all the potential to succeed but at the same time an uncanny ability to shoot itself in the foot at every opportunity).
I’ve spent almost two thirds of my life in Latin America since leaving England in 1980 (aged 25). My work has taken me to every single country in Central and South America on multiple occasions. I’ve seen first hand how this movie ends in places like Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba and it’s never pretty. For all its shortcomings, I love this country and am proud to call Mexico my home. I only hope my fears are unfounded.
I’m in the motorcycle world. India is already producing them plus shipping costs for less than Mexico can. It might even be easier transporting by ship to not have to deal with land borders. So I’m not 100% convinced Mexico’s location is an advantage. Add to that the right hates Mexico. It’s a bit ironic Elon would want a plant in Mexico when he’s part of that right world. Tesla itself is an entire conversation. Many people won’t buy them because of him. They will have major challenges going forward with competition.
All of this is true. I agree completely. I also hope our shared fears can be untrue!
Optimism for 2024 without talking about corruption and cartel activity is like talking about weight loss without diet & exercise. Look no further than what has happened in the agriculture industry for Mexico.
well said old chap
You are absolutely right 👍…. unfortunately….!
But still….I think there are enough people ( good and smart mexican citizens) that will go out and vote for the best candidate to gover Mexico: XOCHITL GÁLVEZ.
18. Mexico will build a road without topes(speed bumps). Haha. Infrastructure needs to be addressed to satisfy many of the things you list.
For people that read this service the peso will likely be the biggest thing to watch. I’m already seeing a shift to Mexico attracting the “poor” customer. Everyone looking for 1 and 2 bedrooms. The Mexicans are the ones renting to the Americans and Canadians.
Many of us with homes say we wouldn’t come to Mexico now. I can buy a beautiful home in a 55 plus community in California for less than my Mexico home is worth.
Musk doesn’t *love the right…wing. He loves the *right to free speech. Which in The United States is becoming endangered.
Your optimism is spot on. Mexico continues to move forward irrespective of the pundits and self promoters that want to drag Mexico and it’s peoples down.
Mexico is undergoing a transformation from decades of corrupt neoliberal regimes to a burgeoning democracy spearheaded by AMLO. Mexican mass media owned by the oligarchs spread hate and fake news; however, Mexicans have woken up and are behind the current president. Not only the poor are doing well, but also the well to do are reaping the benefits and changes the 4T (4th transformation).
Some heavy projections but I like them; not sure NBA will move fast enough to finalize Mexico City team & think Elon Musk’s multiple “fronts” could unfortunately delay devotion to Monterrey plant.
18. Marijuana legalization will finally be passed….
All good points.I think that the cartel, drugs and crime will dominate many of the points. Sheinbaum has stated that the past presidents have all been corrupt. What will she do to make sure she doesn’t fall into the same trap. Crime will be a deterrent to near shoring, tourism and people moving to Mexico. Fentanyl is a very real problem. This stuff can kill you if you just handle it. The US will take a political position on this and use it as leverage on other issues. If Mexico doesn’t stop this, the US could take the position that this is killing Americans and will institute military action against the cartels. Maybe even demand a military base in Mexico.
This could also be deemed to support immigration. It is cheaper to build a wall across southern Mexico than the southern US. This could be a joint US and Mexican effort.
Shiembaum has to figure out how law enforcement works. Is it military, federal, state or local. Near shoring won’t continue I’d employers feel their works are not safe.
But Mexico is still a wonderful place and growth is eminent.
Onshoring is completely dependent on how the Mexican government treats foreign corporations. In the case of mining, the perception right now is that the government is hostile to foreign investment. This needs to be changed if that sector is to continue to grow and generate good jobs. The best thing that could happen would be for Mexico to ramp up the minting of official gold and silver coins and encourage the public to buy them. This would stimulate mining, generate jobs, and provide the populace with a hedge against inflation.
XOCHITL GÁLVEZ will win.
I’ve been going to Mexico since 1960, both vacations and residing for periods of time. The fact of reality is that Mexico is – always has been – like the remakes of a bad movie: the storyline remains basically the same, but the actors change while the outcomes are similar.
Mexico now realizes that the U.S. will no longer be the deep pockets resource of the past. China has stepped in and continues cozy steps toward increasing future fiscal commitments to Mexico.
Bad money doesn’t ever make a good ending for a movie.
I think you have a good chance of being right with most of these predictions. The fly in the ointment of nearshoring IMO is twofold: First, the petty local corruption and criminal sway on state and local governments here, and second the dismal condition of infrastructure. Something in excess of current commerce is moved in often overloaded and poorly maintained trucks over a very poor and deteriorating road system. The reliance on often ridiculously overpriced private highways and badly maintained “free” roads that rely on badly run states is the Achilles heel of the Mexican economy. You can’t build a first world economy on a third world transport and infrastructure system.
Mexico collects huge sums of tax money far too much of which is either misspent or just stolen outright. That has to change or the companies leaving China will make other choices from a whole host of better run competitors.