Almost half of more than 1,000 Mexico-based employers intend to hire additional staff during the final quarter of 2023, according to the results of a survey conducted by staffing company Manpower Group.

Manpower’s latest Employment Outlook Survey found that 48% of employers are planning on hiring more workers between October and December.

Just 12% of surveyed employers intend to reduce the size of their workforces in the final quarter of the year, while 37% expect to maintain their current employee numbers. The remaining 3% are unsure what staffing changes, if any, they will make in late 2023.

Based on that data, Mexico’s “seasonally adjusted net employment outlook” for Q4 is +36%, six points above the average for 41 countries where Manpower conducted its survey. The only countries with higher net employment outlooks for the final three months of the year are Costa Rica (41%), Brazil (38%), Switzerland (38%) and India (37%).

The result for Mexico is undoubtedly positive, although the 36% net score is four points lower than it was 12 months ago.

Manpower also calculated net employment outlooks for seven regions of Mexico.

The northwest (Baja California, Baja California Sur, Sonora and Sinaloa) had the best outlook with a 48% net score followed by western Mexico (41%); the north and northeast (both 37%); central Mexico (35%); Mexico City (31%); and the southeast (27%).

Information technology workers should keep an eye on employment websites as the net percentage of employers in that sector who expect to grow their workforces in the final quarter of the year is 53%.

The energy sector ranked second with a 49% net outlook followed by life sciences and health (44%); retail and services (40%); manufacturing (36%); finance and real estate (33%); communication services (30%); and transport, logistics and automotive (25%).

Fourth quarter hiring intentions also vary depending on the size of the employer. The net outlook for large companies and organizations is +44%, while the percentages for medium, small and very small businesses are 36%, 29% and 27%, respectively.

Companies seeking to hire additional employees in late 2023 will primarily have to lure workers away from their current jobs as unemployment is close to record low levels in Mexico. The national statistics agency INEGI reported in late August that the unemployment rate in the second quarter of the year was 2.8%, up slightly from the record-low of 2.7% registered in Q1.

Most Mexicans who want jobs already have one, but a majority of workers – 55.2%, according to the most recent INEGI data – are employed in the vast informal sector.

However, given that many formal sector companies are looking to hire more staff,  Manpower believes that the total number of formal sector workers will reach a new high of over 22 million by the end of the year.

The U.S.-based company – one of the world’s largest staffing firms – anticipates that a net total of between 700,000 and 750,000 new formal sector jobs will have been created in Mexico by the close of 2023. Almost 624,000 new jobs were added between January and August, according to the Mexican Social Security Institute, lifting the total number of formal sector employees to just under 22 million.

At a press conference on Tuesday, Manpower’s general director for Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America said there are reasons to be optimistic about future employment prospects in Mexico due to the growing nearshoring phenomenon, in which foreign companies establish operations here to be close to the United States market and to take advantage of a range of other benefits Mexico offers such as affordable labors costs.

Many foreign companies that have decided to nearshore to Mexico will set themselves up in the country in 2024 and 2025, Alberto Alesi said.

With reports from Aristegui Noticias, El Economista and Milenio