On June 2, Mexicans will choose a new president, a new congress and many thousands of state and local officials in Mexico’s largest elections ever.
At present, polls show a large advantage to Claudia Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate supported by incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), over her principal rival, Xóchitl Gálvez, who heads the opposition coalition ticket in Mexico’s presidential elections.
Beyond the presidential race, the outcomes in congressional and state elections will have big implications for the political clout of Mexico’s new president, the temperature of political debates, and the potential for approving major reforms of Mexico’s institutions, championed by AMLO to further his vision of Mexico’s transformation.
As elections approach, analysts in Mexico, the U.S., and internationally have expressed serious concern about the strength of Mexico’s democracy and the potential negative impact of AMLO’s proposed reforms.
Given the closely interconnected relationship between Mexico and the United States, Americans must pay close attention to the outcomes of Mexico’s elections and what follows. The U.S. needs good working relations with its southern neighbor to deal with migration, crime and trade issues.
AMLO is hoping that his allies will win a super majority in both houses of Congress in June, allowing his party to pass proposed constitutional and legal reforms when lawmakers take office in September, and before he leaves office on Oct. 1.
The proposals would significantly alter the workings of Mexico’s electoral authorities, Congress, judiciary, and independent regulatory institutions, among others. The thrust of the reforms as proposed would centralize more power in the executive branch and the presidency. However, there is significant opposition to several proposals, including some that previously spurred mass protests. It is far from clear what may result.
What happens in Mexico is vital for the United States. Mexico is the U.S.’s largest trade and co-production partner, supporting some 5 million U.S. jobs. Most irregular migration crosses the US-Mexican border. Mexico remains the largest single source of U.S. immigrants and the source of family and cultural ties for over 35 million U.S. citizens. Also, the vast majority of the deadly fentanyl fueling U.S. overdose deaths comes in through Mexico.
The U.S.-Mexico relationship is simultaneously domestic and international for both countries. There is much to gain by cooperation, but the policies and politics of both countries often spur tensions and discord. It takes strong political commitment and skillful management to sustain good collaboration.
Of great concern is that the quality of Mexico’s democracy and governance has been declining, according to a variety of reports that compare countries around the world. This alarming trend gets too little attention.
Mexico faces daunting challenges in building prosperity and assuring rule of law. Regular news reports of criminal violence and thriving cartel power underscore this. Mexico has had more homicides during the current presidential administration than during any other presidential term in recent decades. Mexico is ranked as having the third worst criminality score globally, with extortion and other crimes worsening. A key study notes that despite improvements over the past four consecutive years, Mexico was less peaceful in 2023 than it was in 2015. Significant violence has marred the election season and many worry about organized crime shaping local elections.
There are respected international studies that put Mexico’s democracy in a broader perspective, which I summarize below.
The Bertelsmann Transformation Index, covering some 130 countries, shows Mexico dropping in its scores between 2016 to 2024. It argues that Mexico is “currently on a path of de-democratization.” It cites attacks on independent institutions and a significant decline in Mexico’s rule of law and governance scores, among other concerns.
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2023 ranks Mexico 90th out of the 167 countries it studied. This index categorizes Mexico as a “hybrid” democracy, which falls below a “full” or a “flawed” democracy. It finds Mexico’s ranking dropped 15% since 2018 and highlights the numbers of civilian deaths related to criminal violence.
International IDEA’s Global State of Democracy Indices, which cover 173 countries, finds that since 2018 Mexico has declined in 12 of the 22 indicators it uses for assessing countries. The biggest declines are in parliamentary effectiveness, freedom of speech, press freedom, judicial independence, predictable enforcement, and strength of civil society.
The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Democracy Reports, which cover 202 countries, find a notable decline in Mexico’s ratings for all of its indexes, and shows particularly large drops in Mexico’s scores for “deliberative democracy,” “liberal democracy,” and “electoral democracy”. V-Dem cites attacks on judiciary and electoral institutions, false government information, and increased polarization, among other issues.
Freedom House’s latest Freedom in the World report, rating some 195 countries, characterizes Mexico as “partly free.” It describes a decline in freedoms beginning after 2017 and flags concerns with organized crime and violence, corruption, lack of government transparency, poor rule of law, and civil liberties more broadly.
The World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index finds that Mexico’s rule of law scores declined notably between 2018 and 2023 among the 100 plus countries analyzed, with particularly bad ratings on corruption, security, and criminal justice performance.
The World Bank prepares Worldwide Governance Indicators covering over 200 countries and territories. The data from 2012, 2017 and 2022 show Mexico’s percentile rank declined in every category over the ten years, with the largest drops in government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption.
Finally, a 2023 Pew survey of 24 countries also flashed a warning on Mexico’s democracy. The Pew survey showed that support for a leader making decisions without interference from a parliament or court had grown more in Mexico than in any other country studied (rising 23% to 50% of those polled).
The key point: it is essential to understand Mexico’s current election cycle in the context of the serious concerns raised by expert studies examining democracy and governance around the globe. These echo Mexico-focused analyses by media and organizations about the violation of human rights and civil liberties, attacks on individuals and NGOs that criticize the government, and violence against journalists and activists.
Mexicans of course have the most at stake, but next in line is the United States. The U.S. is invested heavily in ties with Mexico, including a major trade agreement and a massive presence of U.S. companies.
The U.S. will be better off with a strong, democratic Mexican partner to help fortify prosperity and security, just as Mexico needs a strong partner in the United States. Both countries need to understand the trends shaping electoral outcomes on the other side of the border, and engage each other to forge as constructive a partnership as possible. This will bring better outcomes for Americans and Mexicans.
Earl Anthony Wayne is currently teaching as a Distinguished Diplomat in Residence and Professorial Lecturer at American University’s School of International Service. He is a Public Policy Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars and Co-Chair of the Advisory Board of its Mexico Institute. Wayne is a former Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs, a former U.S. ambassador to Mexico and to Argentina and a former Deputy Ambassador in Afghanistan.
What does this article tell us? That many reports and studies show things getting worse in Mexico. But the article is very, very thin on details as to what the specific problems are and how they might be resolved and how one party or candidate has better proposals for the future. The people of Mexico seem pretty determined not to return to the past of corruption and collusion with the cartels that characterized the administrations of the PRI and the PAN. So, although there have been failures under AMLO, there is hope for changes that Scheinbaum can bring about, especially in important policies related to climate change and the environment.
It tells us that the stakes are high, which is what the headline says. It’s not a research journal article.
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Quite true, Mr. Wagner. These indices tend to value checks and balances, rule of law and strong civil societies, which have been weakened under the AMLO administration has he seeks an more populist approach and centralized executive authority. His own party would seem more likely to continue with such an approach, though their candidate might not pursue some of the proposals he has laid out. The other party, hard to say. Obviously rhetorically they are opposed to this approach, but as a coalition, what they do once in power would be a bit uncertain.
Agree with you 100%
Agree with Mr. Wagner 100%
Been full time resident for the pass 25 yrs and now citizenship … voting for Claudia Sheinbaum and Morena all the way on Sunday for progress !
Worry less about the elections board and the Supreme Court and focus more on who is more likely to decrease poverty in Mexico.
“Democracy dies in Darkness”
Yes, exactly! Thanks, Tony Wayne
One of the interesting issues in this election, as in the US election, is the extent to which voters split ballots. In rural Guanajuato, this probably means MORENA for the president, PAN for governor, and take your pick for senators and mayors.
From the standpoint of constitutions, no two countries are more alike: limited presidential terms, two houses of Congress, independent judiciary. There were a lot of changes that the Mexican writers made, after looking at their own history and the history of the US constitution. One of them was to make amendments somewhat easier. We’ll see if MORENA gets the super majority it says it wants, and whether Steinbaum actually will want to have those changes. The likelihood of mass demonstrations against them may give her the wiggle room to table them.
Anyone else find it a bit rich for a former US diplomat to lament “…that the quality of Mexico’s democracy and governance has been declining.”? From the representative of a system that, three times in this century, has elected a President who lost the popular vote, one of which incited an insurrection (among many other crimes) and could well return to the White House thanks to the slave-related Electoral College. Matthew 7:3-5
The hypocrisy of the United States is amazing. Talk about a declining democracy, a corrupt Supreme Court and destroying of women’s rights. At least in Mexico, gay marriage and abortion are legal.
You really need to take the time to understand the reasoning of the Electoral College. Or are you so blinded by your liberal stake that you can’t see both sides.
Here in these replies, I again see references to things we cannot change and things we can change. If you remember in the 80’s the great scientist told us, we would be in an ice age now, now its global warming if you are a scientist or a professor and you want anything published you had better go along with global warming. What we can change, we can recognize this whole LBGQ whatever for what it is, MENTAL ILLNESS.