Hurricane season starts a little earlier for those in the Pacific Ocean region than it does in the Atlantic, beginning on May 15 instead of June 30, although both extend through November 30. Of course, that doesn’t mean tourists interested in a summer vacation in Baja California Sur destinations like Los Cabos, La Paz, or Todos Santos should clutch their proverbial pearls in fear of a hurricane ruining their plans.
It’s safe to travel during this period. But travelers should take precautions (more on this later) and be prepared for at least a couple of rainy days, particularly if they visit during July, August, or September, the three months that see the most days with precipitation on average. Severe tropical storms and hurricanes are few, but do happen on occasion, most commonly in September. It’s not a coincidence that’s the month when many locals take their vacations.
A civil protection plan has been announced for the 2025 hurricane season
At the start of each hurricane season, national, state, and local government officials coordinate their plans for the coming months to ensure they’re ready for any eventuality. For 2025, Plan DNIII-A has been put into effect. It’s not the catchiest name, but it does promise the services of 3,000 military members through the offices of Mexico’s Navy. These troops will be deployed in reconnoitering potentially vulnerable areas, particularly those susceptible to flooding. They may also be assigned to any of the state’s five municipalities in the event of storm-based emergencies.
Since Hurricane Odile in 2014, the strongest hurricane ever to hit Baja California Sur and a disaster in every sense of the word, the state has rebounded, and the subsequent disaster prevention framework is now considered a nationwide model.
What do the projections for this year say?
Of course, the best-case scenario is that only a handful of storms affect Baja California Sur. Meteorological models for hurricane season are still changing and thus still being argued over by various North and Central American weather monitoring agencies. Mexico’s Navy has released its projections, forecasting 18 tropical storms during this year’s season, 10 of which are hurricane strength, and four of which are major hurricanes, meaning categories 3, 4, or 5, which correspond to wind strengths upwards of 111, 131, and 155 miles per hour, respectively.
That forecast would be slightly above average in terms of storms, but it bears noting that only a small portion would likely affect Baja California Sur. It’s also worth mentioning that much depends on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle, which affects water temperatures and thus the ability of tropical storms to develop (waters above 26.6 degrees Celsius (80 degrees Fahrenheit) are necessary to facilitate formation).
El Niño is famously associated with above-average water temperatures, while La Niña indicates the obverse, or cooler waters. The third category is “neutral”, meaning about average water temperatures. The latter condition is expected to prevail in 2025. However, these patterns are subject to change, which undoubtedly accounts for the discrepancies among various meteorological prognostications.
What preparations should tourists make when visiting during hurricane season?
U.S. residents traveling to Baja California Sur during hurricane season are encouraged to register with the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP), a free service that provides real-time updates during weather emergencies.
Naturally, the necessity of these updates is tied to when you travel. The overwhelming number of tropical storms affecting the Baja California peninsula occurs during August, September, and October. Historically, more arrive in September (56 tropical storms and hurricanes) than in August (19) and October (22) combined.
Other recommended actions before traveling during this time of year include monitoring the National Hurricane Center’s Eastern Pacific page, which allows you to monitor the status and relative strength of incoming storms. This will let you know which days might not be great to go to the beach or book water-related activities.
Making backup copies of important documents and packing emergency kits is likely unnecessary. Local hotels and resorts will almost certainly have a backup generator for power and will be built solidly enough to ensure your belongings, including passports, stay safe and dry. They’ll also make sure the food and beverage service never stops. But if you’re a stickler for preparedness, you can follow these steps, too.
What should you do if a hurricane happens during your vacation in Los Cabos?
Hurricanes are an adventure. For locals, they’re often not so fun, since when electricity, internet connectivity, and running water are out and you don’t have a generator, there’s not much to do except commiserate with your neighbors and try to drink all your beers before they get warm. A luxury resort is a better place to be.
A word of caution about standing water, which often pools in regional streets due to poor drainage and can easily become contaminated. After Tropical Storm Lydia in 2017 — a storm noted for its flooding — I dealt with successive infections due to tainted water around the Cabo San Lucas Marina. Fortunately, all were taken care of by my ENT.
Still, I’d advise waiting until the streets are dry before venturing out to indulge in the normal human occupation of assessing the damage after a hurricane has blown through.
In some cases, storms cause the closure of beaches and activities, and in severe instances, regional airports. Thus, travel insurance may be a worthwhile option for those traveling to Baja California Sur in August, September, or October.
What’s in a name?
The process of naming tropical storms whose speed exceeds 39 miles per hour (74 is the threshold for hurricanes) dates back to 1953, when the National Weather Service in the U.S. initiated the practice. Just as some iconic athletes can get their jersey numbers retired, some hurricanes of an especially destructive nature get their names retired. For example, the previously mentioned Odile is no longer in use.
Two names back in the rotation this year will be all too familiar to long-time residents or visitors: Juliette and Kiko. The former was one of the wettest storms in the history of the peninsula in 2001 (Caduaño and Santiago received a scarcely imaginable 39.8 inches of rain, the highest total ever recorded regionally), while the latter hurricane took a rare inside-out track to make landfall on Los Cabos’ East Cape at 115 miles per hour back in 1989.
However, the first three named storms in 2025 will be Alvin, Barbara, and Cosme.
Chris Sands is the Cabo San Lucas local expert for the USA Today travel website 10 Best, writer of Fodor’s Los Cabos travel guidebook and a contributor to numerous websites and publications, including Tasting Table, Marriott Bonvoy Traveler, Forbes Travel Guide, Porthole Cruise, Cabo Living and Mexico News Daily. His specialty is travel-related content and lifestyle features focused on food, wine and golf.
