Two months after the first case of Covid-19 was detected in Mexico, the total number of confirmed cases rose to 16,752 on Tuesday and the death toll increased to 1,569.
The federal Health Ministry reported 1,223 additional cases of the infectious disease and 135 new deaths. The former figure represents the second highest single-day increase in case numbers since health officials announced the first two on February 28.
Since the government declared the commencement of phase three of the coronavirus pandemic on Tuesday last week, confirmed cases have increased 91% from 8,772 to 16,752.
Almost 4,500 Covid-19 cases have now been detected in Mexico City, more than 2,700 people have tested positive in neighboring México state and nearly 1,400 cases have been confirmed in Baja California. At the other end of the scale are Colima, Durango and Nayarit, which have reported just 26, 56 and 67 cases, respectively.
Almost half of all municipalities across the country – 1,164 of 2,458 – have not yet reported a single Covid-19 case.
Of the almost 17,000 confirmed cases, 5,329 are currently considered active, Health Ministry Director of Epidemiology José Luis Alomía told reporters at the nightly coronavirus press briefing on Tuesday.
Mexico City also has the highest number of active cases with 1,521 followed by México state and Tabasco with 943 and 326, respectively. At the municipal level, Iztapalapa and Gustavo A. Madero in Mexico have the highest number of active cases, with 276 and 209, respectively, followed by Centro (Villahermosa), Tabasco, with 181.
Alomía said that there are also 11,220 suspected cases of Covid-19 in Mexico and that just over 77,000 people have now been tested. Just over 8,000 people who tested positive, 48% of the total, have now recovered from the disease that has claimed the lives of almost 220,000 people around the world as of Wednesday morning.
More than one in five coronavirus-related deaths in Mexico have occurred in the capital, where 348 people have lost their lives to Covid-19. Baja California has the second highest death toll with 186 followed by Sinaloa and México state, where 130 and 128 coronavirus patients, respectively, have died.
Tabasco is the only other state with a triple-figure death toll, with 106 fatalities. Only six states have reported fewer than 10 deaths: Aguascalientes (2), Colima (2), Chiapas (6), Durango (6), Zacatecas (7) and San Luis Potosí (7).
Among Mexico’s municipalities, Tijuana, Baja California, has recorded the highest number of deaths with 133 followed by Culiacán, Sinaloa, with 95 and Gustavo A. Madero, Mexico City, with 70.
Alomía said that in addition to the 1,569 confirmed coronavirus deaths, there are 164 fatalities suspected to have been caused by the disease. He said that between 60% and 80% of critically-ill Covid-19 patients that have required intubation have ended up dying.
Based on confirmed deaths and confirmed cases, Mexico’s Covid-19 fatality rate is currently 9.4 per 100 cases. However, testing rates in Mexico are low compared to many other countries, meaning that the real fatality rate is almost certainly much lower.
The Health Ministry estimates that there are about eight undetected cases for each confirmed one, in which case Mexico would have an accumulated total of just over 150,000 cases and the fatality rate would be about 1.
The federal government predicts that the highest number of infections will occur in the first two weeks of May and that the greatest pressure on Mexico’s health system will come later the same month.
Modeling completed by the Data-Driven Innovation Lab at the Singapore University of Technology and Design also predicts that infections will peak in Mexico in the first half of May before the number of cases reported on a daily basis starts to decline.
The lab is currently predicting that the pandemic will end in Mexico on September 5 with 100% of total Covid-19 cases having occurred by that date. The pandemic will be 97% over by June 12 and 99% finished by June 25, according to the lab’s modeling.
It is currently predicting that the global coronavirus pandemic will end on December 2 with 97% of cases having occurred by May 30 and 99% by June 17.