United States President Donald Trump didn’t announce any “reciprocal tariffs” on imports from Mexico on Wednesday, but a 25% tariff on Mexican canned beer is set to take effect on Friday.
During a speech in the Rose Garden of the White House, Trump presented a chart outlining “reciprocal tariffs” on imports from a long list of countries, but Mexico wasn’t among them.
President Trump announces a minimum 10% tariff on all countries plus additional country-specific rates. pic.twitter.com/jM5272SSCm
— CSPAN (@cspan) April 2, 2025
In a fact sheet explaining the “reciprocal tariff” executive order the U.S. president signed on Wednesday, the White House said that Mexico and Canada are “unaffected by this order.”
“This means USMCA-compliant goods will continue to see a 0% tariff, non-USMCA compliant goods will see a 25% tariff, and non-USMCA-compliant energy and potash will see a 10% tariff,” the White House said.
“In the event the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA [International Emergency Economic Powers Act] orders are terminated, USMCA-compliant goods would continue to receive preferential treatment, while non-USMCA-compliant goods would be subject to a 12% reciprocal tariff,” the fact sheet said.
On March 6, Trump announced that imports from Mexico covered by the USMCA free trade pact would not be subject to U.S. tariffs until at least early April. He had imposed a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada two days earlier due to what the White House said was the two countries’ failure to take adequate action against “the influx of lethal drugs” to the U.S.
While the tariff-free trade of USMCA-compliant goods continues for now, 25% tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum, and hundreds of products made with those metals, remain in effect. Those tariffs also applies to the steel and aluminum the United States imports from all other countries.
On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced an expansion of those tariffs to include “two additional aluminum derivative products: beer and empty aluminum cans.”
As beer itself isn’t an “aluminum derivative product,” it appeared that only canned beer — the beer and its receptacle — would be affected by the 25% tariff. CNBC interpreted the Department of Commerce notice in that way.
However, Reuters’ interpretation was that the tariff would apply to “all beer imports.”
Mexico is the largest exporter of beer to the United States, sending suds worth US $6.3 billion to its northern neighbor last year, according to U.S. Census Bureau data cited by Reuters. The 25% tariff — scheduled to take effect this Friday — could make Mexican beer less competitive in the United States market, where Modelo Especial is the best-selling beer.
Auto tariffs to take effect on Thursday
In his “liberation day” address, Trump confirmed that the auto tariffs he announced last week would take effect on Thursday.
The U.S. president announced last Wednesday that he would impose a 25% tariff “on all cars that are not made in the United States.”
However, U.S. content in vehicles assembled in Mexico will be exempt from the duty, lowering the effective tariff on vehicles made in Mexico.
Guillermo Rosales, president of the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors, said that a vehicle made in Mexico for export to the United States has, on average, 40% U.S. content. The effective tariff on a vehicle assembled in Mexico with 40% U.S. content would be 15%.
The United States’ 25% tariff also applies to certain imports of auto parts, but the White House said last week that “USMCA-compliant automobile parts will remain tariff-free until the Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), establishes a process to apply tariffs to their non-U.S. content.”
It was unclear how soon that process would be established.
3 takeaways for Mexico from the US government’s Wednesday announcements
- The White House fact sheet indicates that if the Mexican government can satisfy the Trump administration that it is taking sufficient action to stem the flow of migrants and fentanyl to the United States, tariffs on non-USMCA-compliant imports from Mexico could be cut by 13 percentage points to 12%. For that to occur, Trump would have to terminate the IEEPA orders that currently apply to Mexican goods.
- President Claudia Sheinbaum was right. On numerous occasions, she expressed confidence that Mexico would avoid the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on its exports to the United States as Mexico doesn’t charge tariffs on most imports from the U.S.
- The USMCA still means something. While Trump has imposed tariffs on some imports from Mexico and Canada, the three-way trade pact is still protecting the United States’ neighbors to a certain extent.
Sheinbaum to respond to US tariffs on Thursday
At her Wednesday morning press conference, Sheinbaum said that she would announce on Thursday a range of measures to strengthen the Mexican economy.
“The program we’re going to present tomorrow is not just related to the tariffs that the United States could impose. It’s a comprehensive program to strengthen the Mexican economy,” she said.
Mexico could announce tariffs on certain imports from the United States in retaliation for the duties imposed on Mexican goods, although Sheinbaum has said her government won’t take an “eye for an eye” approach. Mexico could target certain products such as U.S. pork and bourbon, as it did in 2018 when Trump imposed tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum.
The Sheinbaum administration could also impose new or additional tariffs on products from other countries, such as China and other Asian nations, as it seeks to protect and strengthen Mexican industry.
The president on Wednesday noted that Mexico imports “a lot of vehicles, particularly from Asia” and described that situation as a “problem.”
She said that her government is seeking to bolster domestic vehicle production so that the majority of vehicles purchased in Mexico are made in Mexico.
Sheinbaum indicated in February that additional tariffs on imports from China were a possibility. If the Mexican government were to impose additional tariffs on Chinese products, such as vehicles, it could go some way to appeasing Trump, who has accused Mexico of being a transshipment hub from Chinese goods destined for the U.S.
A placated Trump could consider giving Mexico some relief from the tariffs that some of its goods currently face when exported to the United States.
The peso gets a boost
The Mexican peso depreciated to around 20.50 to the US dollar before Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” address at 2 p.m. Mexico City time but strengthened later in the day.
The USD:MXN rate was 20.23 at 7:15 p.m. Mexico City time.
“The peso appreciated because Trump didn’t announce tariffs for Mexico,” Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, said on X shortly after 3 p.m. when the peso was trading at just above 20.20 to the dollar.
She said that the “high tariffs” the United States is set to impose on goods from other countries and the exemption of duties on goods shipped to the U.S. under the USMCA “provide Mexico an opportunity to increase its market participation” in the U.S.
Mexico shipped goods worth US $505.85 billion to the U.S. last year, capturing 15.5% of the United States’ $3.26 trillion market for imports.
While 25% tariffs currently apply to the non-USMCA compliant goods the United States imports from Mexico, Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said last month that most companies in Mexico that ship products to the U.S. would be able to “easily or without major difficulty” comply with the rules of the North America free trade pact and thus avoid tariffs.
LIBERATION DAY RECIPROCAL TARIFFS 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/ODckbUWKvO
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 2, 2025
Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs
“My fellow Americans, this is liberation day,” Trump said at the beginning of his 48-minute speech in the Rose Garden.
He said that “reciprocal tariffs” would take effect at midnight Thursday, but promptly noted they wouldn’t be “full reciprocal.”
According to the chart Trump presented, “reciprocal tariffs” based on “tariffs charged to the U.S.A., including currency manipulation and trade barriers” will apply to 50 countries, including the European Union. The U.S. tariffs will apply to imports at roughly half the rate at which the exporting countries tax U.S. imports, according to the chart.
While the U.S. government isn’t imposing reciprocal tariffs on imports from Mexico, Trump took aim at Mexico during his address due to the large trade surplus it runs with the United States.
The U.S. president put the United States’ annual deficit with Mexico at US $300 billion, although the figure was significantly lower than that last year at just under $172 billion, according to U.S. data.
During his speech, Trump also railed against NAFTA, the North American trade pact superseded by the USMCA in 2020, describing it as the “worst trade deal by far” and asserting that it caused the loss of 90,000 factories and 5 million manufacturing jobs in the United States.
He said that the implementation of reciprocal tariffs is “our declaration of economic independence” and that “jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country.”
By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies (peter.davies@mexiconewsdaily.com)
interesting how this will work out longer term…. substantially higher prices for the consumers
Thank you for a well detailed analysis of the tariff policies of both USA and Mexico. I would suggest that Mexico only ships bottled beer to America!
Agreed. Cans are lined with plastic anyway and I don’t want plastic touching my beer. Thanks to Ball company’s invention of “lined” aluminum cans.
If you don’t want plastic touching your beer buy cans. But your gringo attitude seems to be the norm now. If you don’t like it ban it. Our voters and our gov seems intent on destroying itself. America has become a control freak society. And I’m an R saying this.
I’m glad Mexico is better. I’m glad I’m here right now. And I’m glad I’m building a house here as well. Mostly Mexican building products will be used, if not all. I can’t escape the US fast enough. Thanks to the more calm and cooperative stance of the Mexican government Mexico will come out the other side better than the US. And Mexico will STILL have a better business environment and worker base!
They later stated that it would be on all beer. Glass and can
From a famous American economist: ECM 2020 2028 R
President Trump announced a baseline 10% tariff on U.S. imports, with steeper reciprocal levies on goods from Europe, Japan, China, and more than 50 other nations. The problem is that he will be blamed for the recession/depression the world is headed into, which will not bottom until August 25th, 2028. Economists widely criticized tariffs for deepening the global trade collapse during the Great Depression. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs were targeting agriculture because they did not understand currency. I disagree with what Trump is doing with tariffs. Some are justified where the EU is very abusive, for they are still living in the days of Marxism. You keep high tariffs to protect local jobs at the expense of your living standards. Citizens must pay 20% more for goods made domestically because they are subsidized by blocking imports from other provinces, as inside Canada, or nations such as the EU.
I believe Trump will have a PR problem because the economy is turning down because of global debt and warmongering, but the LEFT and economists, who are biased leftists in general, will blame Trump and his tariffs. I stated at the November WEC in 2024 that it did not matter who won economically, the world is in trouble, and we were headed into a recession by 2028.
I was pro-Trump because of the war, and I knew he was anti-war. My computer warns that we are headed into World War III, and I stated that clearly at the 2011 WEC conference in Philadelphia. I understand that many hate my guts because they do not like the forecasts. These are NOT my personal opinions. My job is to present the forecasts that Socrates has put out. I have also said at our WEC events that I have tried my best to defeat my own model. I have consistently failed.
Trump announced that universal 10% tariffs on all imports into the US will go into effect on April 5th, in a key moment for global trade. Certain countries will be hit with steeper tariffs based on US trade deficits, as high as 50% – these begin April 9th. Insofar as the UK is concerned, Trump says the UK will have a 10% tariff on goods, but the EU’s rate will be 20% Theis will benefit the UK for what you will see is redeployment of goods being shipped from the AAEU to the UK and then sent to USA to skirt the tariffs.
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, formally known as the Tariff Act of 1930, was signed into law by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. This protectionist legislation significantly raised U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods, aiming to shield American industries during the Great Depression. However, it exacerbated global economic tensions by prompting retaliatory tariffs from other nations, further reducing international trade. The act is often cited as contributing to the severity of the worldwide economic downturn in the 1930s.
That is because the economists were all LEFTIST Marxists. I had to read in high school The Great Crash by Galbraith and I came to understand everything I was being taught is school was a lie – just LEFTIST propaganda. Galbraith never mentioned that all of Europe defaulted on its debt. Even Canada defaulted. That is what pushed the dollar to historic highs and that is what led to the protectionism. It was all currency.
If Galbraith told the truth, then FDR’s New Deal was wrong – the problem was not greedy capitalists, but greedy politicians. Nevertheless, just as they still lie every day in economics classes around the globe, selling covertly Marxism/Keynesianism, nobody mentions the Sovereign Defaults of 1931 that led to the collapse of 9000 banks.
Canada suspended the gold standard in 1931, following the United Kingdom’s decision to abandon it in September of that year. The move was part of a broader response to the economic pressures of the Great Depression, which led many countries to exit the gold standard to gain more flexibility in monetary policy. Canada’s suspension occurred shortly after Britain’s, aligning with its economic ties to the British Commonwealth. The exact timing is often cited as October 1931, marking a critical step in Canada’s efforts to mitigate financial instability during the crisis. This decision differentiated Canada from the United States, which retained the gold standard until 1933.
1931 Dow 1927 37 Dollar
The US share market, based on the Dow Jones Industrials, fell 89%. However, the dollar rose 41%. That means in real terms of international value, the Dow Jones declined by only about 47% – not 89%. Nobody understood the capital flows, and nobody understood currency.
Trump will be blamed for the Tariffs
Just as they blamed the Capitalists rather than Governments in the 1930s
President Trump announced sweeping global tariffs on Liberation Day — a risky move that he vowed would lure manufacturing back to the United States. Sorry – it’s the taxes, not tariffs!
This will upend the global economy mainly because Europe is HIGHLY Marxist. We are talking about culture shifts, not just economic
Sorry. I cannot be Partisan. I have to call the Shots as they are fired
Who is this famous person?
Dems want there to be “equality” as to wages and wealth. Republicans want there to be “equality” when it comes to trade. Neither are attainable or even desirable. We are indeed in a world that has gone mad. I’m glad I’m escaping the western world as we speak.
Is it
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Martin A. Armstrong
Born Martin Arthur Armstrong
November 1, 1949 (age 75)
New Jersey
Nationality American
Occupation Forecaster
Known for Economic Confidence Model
Martin Arthur Armstrong (born November 1, 1949) is an American self-taught[1] economic forecaster and convicted felon who spent 11 years in jail for cheating investors out of $700 million and hiding $15 million in assets from regulators.[1]
Oh no, another nut trying to trash the New Deal by labeling all economists he doesn’t like “leftist Marxists.” As if one of those words by itself weren’t enough! If I had pearls I’d be clutching them!
Donald Trump: making the US smaller, weaker, meaner, and stupider day by day. Fortunately, Mexico is a nation with intelligent leadership and an industrial policy that appears to make sense. Mexico is already on track to benefit from the US’ shortsightedness.
So right. Thanks
“If I had pearls I’d clutch them” HAHAHAHA 😀
Lager beers mostly taste the same to me, so the tariff on US consumers might shift me to a US beer in the US, all else being equal. (I’m less likely to buy beer made overseas and shipped to wherever I am, in general.) However consumer taste is a complex subject. Sometimes more expensive alcohol is viewed as better, for example.
This may hurt Grupo Modelo, or it may not (or not much). If it does, it would probably benefit Budweiser sales, and its parent company Anheuser-Busch InBev, owner of Grupo Modelo. Heads I win, tails, I also win. Also, as The Genius takes out businesses and probably millions of jobs worldwide due to actual damage or to the inability of companies to plan, alcohol sales probably won’t dip as much as fresh nutritious food and/or family/midrange restaurants. The tariffs are just the visible part of the iceberg. “Full speed ahead!”
Beer in a bottle.
Frankly not much of a punishment.
Americans and also a lot of Canadians love Mexican beers, myself I am a Dos X fan, in fact this was easy.
Canadians also appreciate Tequila. A lot.
Mexico runs a trade deficit for many reasons, one of which is there are twice as many Americans as Mexicans and Americans buy more stuff than Mexicans, so of course, any smaller country that sells to a bigger, richer one will sell more to more of those people than they buy from those people since there are fewer people in the smaller country with less money to spend on consumer stuff.
This is an obsurd Kabuki Theater designed to denigrate other countries and other people. It’s basically a poor attempt at recolonization.