Saturday, August 16, 2025

Central bank has bad news for AMLO with reduced growth forecast

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Governor Díaz: lower growth.
Governor Díaz: lower growth.

Mexico’s central bank was a bearer of bad news for incoming president Andrés Manuel López Obrador today, lowering its growth expectations for his first full year in office.

In its quarterly inflation report, the Bank of México (Banxico) predicted growth of 1.8% to 2.8% in 2019, down from a range of 2.2% to 3.2% in its previous report.

López Obrador said earlier this month that Mexico has the capacity to double its rate of economic growth from 2% to 4%, and that the private sector is committed to doing its part to achieve it.

Banxico also lowered its growth outlook for this year to a range of 2% to 2.6% compared to a 2% to 3% range in its last forecast.

Bank of México governor Alejandro Díaz de León explained that “the most important factor for which we decided to reduce our growth expectations for these two years was the economic growth result of the second quarter.”

The quarterly report said that “in the second quarter of 2018, economic activity contracted due to declines in primary and secondary [sector] activities as well as a loss of dynamism in the services sector.”

Díaz de Léon did, however, express optimism about the trade pact reached this week between Mexico and the United States, describing it as “a very important step” and predicting that a final agreement could trigger new investment and boost growth.

“We are very optimistic that this agreement and this understanding to modernize the commercial relationship can be extended and finalized in the next weeks, months,” he said.

“It would clearly be an element of uncertainty that would diminish considerably.”

With respect to inflation, the central bank made upward revisions for both 2018 and 2019.

Inflation will reach 4.2% in the last quarter of this year, Banxico said, compared to an estimate of 3.8% in its previous report. Inflation of 3.3% was predicted for 2019, up from 3.1%.

The upward revisions were due to higher than expected energy prices but inflation would near the bank’s target of 3% in the first half of 2020, the report said.

The Bank of México also slightly revised its employment forecasts for this year and next, estimating that between 670,000 and 770,000 new jobs would be registered by the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) this year.

The figures are 10,000 fewer at each end of the range compared to its previous forecast

The bank predicted the same number of jobs would be created next year, 20,000 fewer than its previous forecast.

One job creation program López Obrador has announced since his victory in the July 1 election is an apprenticeship scheme for young people called “Youths building the future.”

Source: El Financiero (sp)

Vehicle armorers might have to take a hit under AMLO’s austerity

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An armored vehicle, made in Mexico.
An armored vehicle, made in Mexico.

Armor-plating vehicles is a big business in Mexico and the federal government is one of the biggest customers, but there are fears that the industry could take a hit under the incoming administration’s austerity plan.

Successive governments have spent almost 1 billion pesos (US $52.7 million) to armor-plate vehicles over the past 12 years. The administrations of both Felipe Calderón and Enrique Peña Nieto paid hundreds of millions of pesos each to protect politicians and high-ranking officials while on the road and security personnel during tactical operations.

All told, the Calderón-led National Action Party (PAN) government spent just under 562.4 million pesos to armor-plate vehicles, while the current Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) administration has spent 411.3 million pesos.

But will president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has already said that he will eschew personal security as one of several austerity measures he intends to adopt in office, also spend big to armor-plate state vehicles?

Esteban Hernández, general director of the Mexican Association of Automobile Armorers, fears not.

Hernández told the newspaper El Universal that he is concerned that the demand for armor-plating services will drop during the administration of the leftist political veteran commonly known as AMLO, and that the industry will suffer as a consequence.

López Obrador has already announced that he plans to slash the bureaucracy, sell off the presidential plane and cut the salaries of lawmakers and high-level officials, so the likelihood that he would dig deep into government coffers to armor more vehicles, especially those used by politicians and officials, would appear unlikely.

Government data obtained by El Universal through freedom of information requests shows that the Federal Police has been by far the biggest customer for vehicle armor-plating services over the past 12 years, spending 734.4 million pesos.

The Secretariat of the Navy has spent 92.5 million pesos in the same period, while the Bank of México spent just shy of 70 million pesos.

In total, 15 government departments and institutions have paid for the services during the current and previous administrations including the federal Attorney General’s office, the National Human Rights Commission (CNDH) and the Secretariat of Finance (SHCP).

According to Hernández, Mexico is one of the world’s leading exporters of armored vehicles. He said his company, Auto Safe, exported US $1 million worth of such vehicles last year.

López Obrador, who said that “the people will protect me” when explaining his decision to forgo personal security days after his landslide victory in the July 1 presidential election, will be sworn in on December 1.

Source: El Universal (sp)

Developer will open 3 ‘malltertainment’ shopping centers this fall

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An illustration of the 'malltertainment' concept now under construction in Cholula, Puebla.
An illustration of the 'malltertainment' concept now under construction in Cholula, Puebla.

The real estate development firm Gicsa will open three new shopping centers over the next three months under the concept known as “malltertainment.”

The company first announced the “entertainment mall” category in 2016, explaining that the concept would integrate entertainment venues, a range of shops and department stores, co-working spaces and public areas in shopping centers with an average size of 185,000 square meters.

On September 28, Isla Mérida in the Yucatán capital will be the first malltertainment shopping center to open, followed by Explanada Puebla on October 18 and Paseo Querétaro in November.

The three malls, Gicsa’s first developments in the category, will together cost around 6 billion pesos (US $316 million) to build.

The Isla Mérida project includes entertainment areas such as movie theaters and a children’s center as well as a lagoon with canals, green areas, gardens, a variety of restaurants, a residential area and a 140-room hotel, according to Gicsa’s website.

Isidro Attie, the company’s director for the malltertainment concept, said in 2016 that Explanada Puebla “will have a 33-ride midway, a bowling alley, a 5,000-seat entertainment center, a hot-air balloon, medical facilities, a technical university, a preschool and daycare center, a hotel with more than 150 rooms, a co-working and networking space for entrepreneurs and open-air exercise areas.”

Paseo Querétaro will include department stores, clothing and shoe stores, service stores, movie theaters, gyms, a children’s entertainment area, as well as a vast selection of restaurants at a location adjacent to the city’s old airport.

Company CEO Abraham Cababie Daniel told a press conference yesterday that Gicsa expects to open another nine or 10 shopping centers in the category by 2020, with the cities of Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, Pachuca and Culiacán among the planned locations.

Existing Gicsa shopping centers will be partially or totally converted to meet the malltertainment requirements, he said, adding that most of the mega-developments will include hotels.

“We hope that the malltertainment shopping centers become tourist destinations in themselves, in addition to being the epicenter of each city,” explained Attie.

Source: El Economista (sp)

President believes initial findings in Ayotzinapa probe were correct

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Peña Nieto gives his videotaped message.
Peña Nieto gives his videotaped message.

President Enrique Peña Nieto stands by the “historical truth” declared by investigators in the disappearance of 43 teacher-training students in Iguala, Guerrero, in September 2014.

Then-attorney general Jesús Murillo Karam declared in early 2015 that the students of the Ayotzinapa teacher training college had been killed by a crime gang which had then burned their bodies. His announcement was initially received with some skepticism.

It later turned to flat-out rejection after independent investigators concluded that the official findings were flawed.

“Personally, and [knowing] the pain and the sorrow of the students’ families, I am of the conviction that what regrettably happened was what the investigation found,” Peña Nieto said in a video posted online.

Although the parents of the students have rejected the official findings, he said, “there was clear and convincing evidence that, unfortunately, the 43 youths had been incinerated by a criminal group that operated in the state of Guerrero.”

He said there was “no way to repair the loss of a child” but what happened to the students “should never be repeated in our country.”

Today, the Centro Prodh human rights group in Guerrero criticized the president’s comments via Twitter. It accused him of deliberately omitting to say the official investigation was condemned by four independent organizations and a court.

It said the federal government continues to insist on maintaining its “historical lie.”

On January 27, 2015, four months after the students disappeared, the attorney general declared that the students were “kidnapped, murdered, incinerated and thrown into a river. In that order. This is the historical truth . . . .”

The Group of Interdisciplinary Independent Experts, an international group of lawyers and human rights experts that performed their own investigation, shot down the official account in their last report, issued in April 2016.

The experts left Mexico “disappointed and frustrated,” and convinced that the authorities were “married” to Murillo’s findings. They also claimed that federal authorities had blocked their investigation by denying access to officials and information.

Peña Nieto’s online message came four days before his sixth and final report on national affairs, an official event held before Congress every year on September 1. He will follow that with a televised address to the nation on September 3.

Source: Milenio (sp)

Oaxaca takes mezcal denomination battle to Mexico City

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Governor Murat speaks during a march by mezcal makers in Mexico City yesterday.
Governor Murat speaks during a march by mezcal makers in Mexico City yesterday.

Caravans of buses traveling to Mexico City from Oaxaca have historically carried protesting teachers, but not this week.

Instead, a caravan of 18 buses delivered protesting mezcal makers led by Governor Alejandro Murat Hinojosa, who decided to take a battle over denomination of origin to the capital city.

The state’s mezcal industry is unhappy about a decision by the Mexican Institute of Industrial Property (IMPI) to allow the expansion of the beverage’s denomination of origin (DO) to several regions of three states.

After arriving in the city yesterday, Murat and the mezcaleros marched on the Anillo Periférico beltway to the IMPI headquarters, where they hoped to meet with Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo.

But Guajardo was engaged in trade talks in Washington, D.C., so Murat spoke to him by telephone instead.

Murat said after the call that he was confident that the DO expansion plan will be “reconsidered,” and hopes to meet with Guajardo before September 20.

“We want the mezcal DO to be protected, because the beverage’s quality is diluted with the expansion, clearly affecting the heritage of the peoples of Oaxaca and Mexico,” he said.

“Producers have raised their voice: if there is no adequate solution, there will be other means, through international agencies or through social or political [protests],” warned the governor.

Murat also claimed to represent 90,000 mezcal producers who harvest agave on 500,000 hectares of land in Oaxaca.

Of the nine states that have mezcal DO, Oaxaca is by far the largest producer being the source of 90% of the country’s mezcal. Neighboring Puebla follows well behind in second place with 3.5% of national production. Other producers include Zacatecas, Guerrero and Durango.

The regions where IMPI approved the DO expansion are in Aguascalientes, México state, Puebla and Morelos.

The nation’s yearly mezcal yield is around 3 million liters and is worth 2 billion pesos, or about US $105.5 million.

Mexican mezcal is exported to 60 countries. The United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Japan and France are the chief markets.

Source: El Universal (sp)

Researchers turn maguey residue into wind turbine blades

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Turbine blades made from maguey waste.
Turbine blades made from maguey waste.

A new use has been found for the maguey plant, a symbol of Mexico and the base ingredient of tequila and mezcal. Researchers in Oaxaca have found it can also be used to produce blades for wind turbines.

Professors and students at the Technological University of the Central Valleys of Oaxaca (UTVCO) are currently conducting tests on prototypes of the blades made out of maguey bagasse, the residue of mezcal production in the state.

Results to date have shown that the material is even stronger than fiberglass, which most wind turbine blades are made of.

“Wind wears down fiberglass [causing it to detach] and what we’re trying to do . . . is avoid that harmful material spreading out into the environment as well as offer an alternative which recycles and uses the maguey residue,” said UTVCO professor Alejandro Alderete Nava.

More than 122,000 tonnes of maguey residue are produced annually in Oaxaca, Mexico’s main mezcal-producing state, and much of it ends up being illegally dumped in rivers or incinerated and generating air contamination, according to the National Council for Science and Technology (Conacyt).

Alderete explained that the blade prototypes made by renewable energy engineering students at UTVCO are for low-power wind turbines with a capacity of up to 600 watts.

He also said that environmentally-friendly wind turbine blades made out of coconut fiber were planned for a later development phase.

Oaxaca’s Isthmus of Tehuantepec region is Mexico’s wind power capital, with 26 of the country’s 45 wind farms located there.

Around 5.5% of all energy generated in Mexico currently comes from wind but according to an estimate by the Secretariat of Energy, that figure will increase to 16% by 2029.

Mexico is the 18th largest producer of wind energy in the world and the second biggest in Latin America behind Brazil.

Fidel Sánchez Maqueo, director of the renewable energy degree program at UTCVO, said that a “dual education” model will be introduced in September that will allow students to complement their university study with real world practice.

He said the university has reached agreements with wind power companies in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, which will enable students to conduct fieldwork and gain valuable experience.

He also said that UTCVO has developed relationships with the Federal Electricity Commission and energy companies in other states, which will also serve to provide opportunities to students to gain experience and increase their chances of obtaining employment in the sector after they graduate.

Mexico News Daily

3,000 runners attempted to cheat in Mexico City marathon

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Marathon runners Sunday in Mexico City. Some cheated.
Marathon runners Sunday in Mexico City. Some cheated.

Of the 32,000 people who finished Sunday’s annual Mexico City marathon, more than 3,000 cheated, organizers say.

According to the Sports Institute of Mexico City, Indeporte, although over 38,000 people had registered only 29,555 runners showed up for the race early Sunday morning. But the final tally of runners who crossed the finish line in the 42-kilometer race was 32,645, meaning that an additional 3,090 people joined in along the route.

The cheating runners were disqualified.

Despite the fraudsters, this year’s turnout could mean that the Mexico City marathon will be the world’s eighth biggest.

The total of 27,544 runners who finished the race exceeded the total in the Boston marathon by 1,731. That event is currently No. 8 in the world.

The final ranking will be tallied later this year once other cities have completed their own marathons.

Of the 38,336 people who registered to run in Mexico this year, 50% were locals, 41% from elsewhere in the country and nine per cent were foreign.

Source: Milenio (sp)

Woman dead, teen severely burned after pipeline tap explosion

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Black smoke fills the sky after the pipeline explosion in Querétaro.
Black smoke fills the sky after the pipeline explosion in Querétaro.

An explosion at a Pemex pipeline tap in Querétaro killed the wife of a police officer and seriously injured their 15-year-old daughter yesterday.

The municipal police officer had been assigned to keep the site secure while an investigation was conducted into the tap, which was found August 22 in San Juan del Río.

The two victims were delivering the officer’s lunch when the explosion occurred. The woman died trapped inside a vehicle while her daughter suffered burns to 90% of her body. She was airlifted by helicopter to the city of Querétaro for treatment.

The police officer also suffered burns.

Pemex said the pipeline had been shut down after the tap was discovered.

Municipal police said in a statement that the cause of the explosion had yet to be determined.

Police seemed to believe the pipeline was still pumping fuel. They issued a request to Pemex to shut downimmediately any pipelines under official investigation, “because there is a well-founded risk that they could cause accidents like today’s, that cost a person’s life.”

Source: Milenio (sp)

If Canada doesn’t agree to elements of trade pact they will be renegotiated

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Trade negotiators Seade, left, and Guajardo.
Trade negotiators Seade, left, and Guajardo.

If Canada doesn’t agree to parts of the trade pact between Mexico and the United States, they will be renegotiated, Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo said yesterday.

In a radio interview, Guajardo specifically cited rules of origin for the automotive sector as an issue that could require adjustment but stressed that new talks with Canada would not be a “pitched battle” but rather a more agile process than the one recently concluded between Mexico and the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced Monday that the two countries had reached a new trade agreement that could exclude Canada but Mexico has stressed its wish that the pact remain trilateral and talks aimed at reaching that end are taking place in Washington D.C. this week.

Guajardo said he was confident that Canada would come on board, adding that Mexico’s negotiating team had maintained constant communication with Canadian officials as it negotiated separately with the United States over the past month.

In a separate interview yesterday, the economy secretary told Bloomberg Television that “Canada has to analyze the landing zones that we will propose in some of the issues . . . and they have to decide how they want to solve them.”

Some of the issues are specific to the United States-Canada relationship, Guajardo said, such as supply management in dairy and poultry and government procurement.

In addition to auto trade rules, trilateral issues including the six-year “review” agreement in lieu of the sunset clause, which the United States was pushing for, and Chapter 19 dispute resolution mechanisms will also be subject to revision, he said.

Mexico and Canada both opposed the inclusion of a sunset clause that would have seen an updated trade pact automatically expire if it was not renegotiated every five years but Canada is likely to disagree with the elimination of a settlement system for anti-dumping disputes, which Mexico already agreed to, because it considers it a means to fight what is sees as unfair U.S. duties on softwood lumber and paper.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Luis Videgaray said in another interview that the six-year review arrangement was proposed by Jesús Seade, president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s nominee to be his chief trade representative.

Elimination of the sunset clause would avoid a “sudden death” of the agreement, Videgaray said.

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland today expressed support for the updated auto trade rules, which stipulate that 75% of content must be made in the North American region in order for a car to qualify for tariff-free status and that 40% to 45% of content must be made in high wage zones where workers earn at least US $16 per hour.

“Rules of origin in cars is an incredibly complicated issue, but we had reached a high-level agreement with the U.S. in the spring, and we are encouraged by the progress they made with Mexico this summer,” she told reporters.

“Mexico has made some significant concessions which would be really good for Canadian workers,” Freeland added.

Mexican and United States negotiators are pushing to reach a deal by the end of this week so that the U.S. Congress can pass a new agreement before President Enrique Peña Nieto leaves office at the end of November.

If Canada is not brought into the agreement, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has indicated that Trump will notify U.S. Congress of the separate deal with Mexico.

While stressing that a trilateral deal is the aim, Guajardo said he believed that a separate bilateral deal could pass the U.S. Congress, adding that the Trump administration had told Mexico’s negotiating team as much.

However, some lawmakers, including Republicans, have said they won’t support a deal that excludes Canada, while some trade experts are questioning whether the U.S. president has the legal authority to leave Canada out.

“The Congress gave trade promotion authority to the USTR [United States Trade Representative] . . . based on a trilateral deal so there are some, including many in Congress who are saying, ‘We’re not going to review a bilateral submission, you don’t have authority for that.’ So they could kick it back to the curb,” said Laura Dawson, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.

Other analysts believe that a Friday deadline to include Canada in the deal is too ambitious.

“The reality is you can’t do in three and a half days . . . what the Mexicans did in five weeks of very intense, non-stop negotiations,” said Eric Miller, a trade expert and president of Washington consulting firm Rideau Potomac Strategy Group.

“So this notion that somehow there has to be a deal by Friday is just wrong, I think.”

Source: Milenio (sp), La Jornada (sp), Bloomberg (en), Global News (en)

Some 300 turtles die trapped in fishing nets off Oaxaca coast

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Dead turtles off the coast of Oaxaca today.
Dead turtles off the coast of Oaxaca today.

Around 300 turtles were found dead off the coast of Oaxaca today after they became trapped in fishing nets, state authorities reported.

Oaxaca Civil Protection services said that the olive ridley sea turtles were located in the Pacific Ocean three miles from Barra de Colotepec, a beach community near Puerto Escondido.

After receiving an anonymous tip, authorities and volunteers launched an operation to free the entangled reptiles from what are believed to be nets belonging to a tuna vessel, but all of the turtles had died by the time they arrived.

Judging by their state of decomposition, it is probable that the turtles had been dead for at least eight days.

Fisherman Antonio Mendoza ruled out any possibility that the net that trapped the turtles belonged to a local, and at least one media report said it might have belonged to a foreign fishing vessel.

The Federal Environmental Protection Agency (Profepa) said via Twitter that it had received a report of the turtles’ deaths and was initiating an investigation to identify those responsible.

The olive ridley turtle, known in Mexico as tortuga golfina, arrive in their thousands on Mexican Pacific coast beaches every year to lay eggs.

Last week, federal authorities arrested five men after a routine inspection on the Huatulco-Salina Cruz highway revealed they were carrying 30,000 olive ridley sea turtle eggs.

Source: NVI Noticias (sp), Excelsiór (sp), El Universal (sp)