The survival of Mexico as we know it is at stake in this election, with two radically different options.
On one hand, the traditional parties (PAN, PRI, PRD) aim to preserve the 1917 Constitution and the spirit of the democratic transition (1977-1996) to protect their legacy. On the other hand, Morena and its allies (PT, PVEM) propose a new political order still without a defined outline but with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and his group at the center.
How different Morena’s new order will look depends on the electoral support they get. In the more extreme scenario, it could lead the country down the path of a constitutional convention, establishing the foundation for a stable competitive authoritarian regime, in which “formal democratic institutions are widely viewed as the principal means of obtaining and exercising political authority. However, incumbents violate those rules so often and to such an extent that the regime fails to meet conventional minimum standards for democracy.”
Almost six years ago, I voiced concerns regarding the future of Mexico’s electoral institutional framework, anticipating potential efforts by AMLO to erode the autonomy of the National Electoral Institute (INE).
I explicitly stated, “Now that AMLO has fulfilled his long-held ambition of becoming president, the real question is what will happen to the current electoral institutional framework?” and emphasized that “he might attempt to undermine the autonomy of the INE, openly or behind the scenes, to tilt the electoral field in favor of his party.”
Unfortunately, these fears materialized in April 2022 when AMLO officially introduced a bill to replace the INE with a new institution under his orbit of influence. This could have enormous repercussions: the autonomy of the INE constitutes the cornerstone of Mexican democracy.
It is essential to recall that Mexico’s democratic transition spans almost two decades and is characterized by a continuous cycle of “constant iterations of electoral fraud, opposition protest, and electoral reform.” Throughout this extended process, the primary contention between the hegemonic PRI and the opposition parties revolved around the autonomy of the electoral authorities concerning the executive branch, gradually granted through meaningful political and electoral reforms in the years 1977, 1986, 1989–1990, 1993, 1994, and 1996.
It took nearly two decades, spanning from 1977 to 1996, to build the democratic scaffold that underpins our democracy. This scaffold presided over four presidential elections, including Morena’s triumph in 2018, and was skillfully leveraged by AMLO to ascend to the presidency. However, its significance appears inconsequential to him. Over the past five years, we have observed a series of initiatives from his government aimed at vilifying and sidelining the INE, which serves as the guarantor of free and fair elections in Mexico. In essence, these actions threaten the foundations of democratic rule.
What I failed to foresee was the audacity displayed by AMLO. Much like many others, I was deceived by his softened image during the electoral season. I had anticipated that the endeavor to control the INE would involve negotiations in Congress and efforts to win over the left-leaning factions of the PRI. In 2018, I remarked: “Morena controls the Congress, and President AMLO will have no trouble unifying around him the parties on the left along with left-leaning sectors of the PRI. A coalition of that breadth amounts to two-thirds of Congress, the necessary threshold to appoint INE board members.”
However, the PRI eventually realized that supporting this option was, in essence, political suicide. Consequently, they chose to form an alliance with the PAN and the PRD, not merely to secure electoral victories but out of a pure survival instinct.
My initial naivety was swiftly dispelled, though, as I recognized that AMLO is in fact hoping to exercise power and exert influence even while he isn’t president. The evidence of 2023 is unmistakable: he is strategically positioning his allies to maintain control and decision-making authority over Morena after he exits the presidency. This became glaringly evident a few weeks ago when his favorites and close associates were chosen as the gubernatorial candidates in key states of Mexico. The clarity of this intention was particularly striking when his favorite candidate to represent Morena in the mayoral election in Mexico City was nominated, differing from the individual favored by his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum. The message resounded clearly to all who cared to listen: this is my party, and I am its leader.
The last president who pursued a similar path was Carlos Salinas (1988-1994), and his plan tragically unraveled when his political protégé and hand-picked successor, Luis Donaldo Colosio, was assassinated in Tijuana. In the 1930s, former president Plutarco Elías Calles (1924-1928) also exercised control over three presidents, between 1928 and 1934. This historical period is known as the “Maximato,” named after Calles’s moniker as el “Jefe Máximo.” Unfortunately for Calles, it didn’t end well. In 1934, Lázaro Cárdenas assumed the presidency, leading to conflicts between them. Eventually, Cárdenas forcibly sent Calles on a one-way plane trip to San Diego, California, in exile. The lesson here is clear: never underestimate the capacity of politicians to turn against those who supported them.
Uncertainties loom on the horizon for Mexico’s future. Personally, I believe that the upcoming election will be a closely contested one. Regardless of the outcome, it serves as a stark reminder that in politics, nothing is set in stone. The continuation of the democratic regime painstakingly built at the close of the twentieth century by a generation of Mexicans is not guaranteed. In fact, today, it’s not even assured that the Mexican state will survive in the manner we’ve known it for the first two decades of the 21st century.
Throughout Mexico’s tumultuous history, political upheavals have often left behind a trail of destruction. As we approach the precipice, we cannot dismiss the possibility of a resurgence in political violence to a magnitude not witnessed in over a century. The stakes are high, making this election of unparalleled importance, even extending beyond Mexico’s borders to impact the United States.
This article was originally published by The Mexico Institute at the The Wilson Center.
Alejandro García Magos is Lecturer of Political Science at the University of Toronto where he obtained his PhD. He received an MA in Political Science from the University of Calgary, and a BA in Economics from the Universidad Iberoamericana, Mexico City. His research interests are in democracy and authoritarianism, with a regional focus on the Spanish-speaking world.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Mexico News Daily, its owner or its employees.
Thanks for a well considered and written article. I was thinking this had become a pro-AMLO publication, but this is so fair and thoughtful. Thanks.
I am not nearly as well-informed as you on the political affairs of México but I can ponder. My expatriate Spanish teacher from México thinks that AMLO is a communist, this paper shows that Luis Donaldo Colosio’s assassination may be solved while all major 1960’s USA assassinations remain unsolved, and the likely recycled President of the USA is an insurrectionist labeled in a large San Diego Union-Tribune editorial as a “fascist”. Maybe, the more things change the more they stay the same and the grass is green on both sides of the fence.
This article is very obviously from the well paid journalist from the right.
I’ve been following Mexican politics for the last year and it inspiring to see the wonderful changes in Mexico.
My understanding what AMLO is trying to do with INE is to actually make it more democratic and allow the country to decide who the leads INE instead of being appointed by the party in control.
This is real democracy. Opposition still has some control over INE and are trying as hard as they can to prevent loosing that power.
This article is one sided opinion of what’s happening in Mexico.
I subscribed to MDN thinking that this was a publication that would show both sides of the isle.
Wouldn’t it be great to actually to have an opinion from the other side and explain this issue side by side to publications like this one so people can really have an informed opinion?
So you believe that the thousands of people marching and protesting in support of the INE were all voters from the right?
And that AMLO is just misunderstood, due to biased coverage?
Also that this political science/economics professor is a journalist (and that journalists are highly paid!) and MND is paying them bags of cash to write hit pieces…
Occam’s Razor would be a good place to start with respect to all your assumptions. I’d suggest reading more, or venturing outside your current sources to read something different.
Unfortunately the LA Times is imploding right now, but they are a great source for pieces about Mexico (especially anything written before this week).
I think the LA Times comes included with Apple News…if not, there’s surely other sources in there, as that subscription provides a LOT of options. It’s definitely the best value for traditional news media consumption.
El Pais is fantastic but essentially requires a subscription. You can sign up for the Mexico newsletter and get some good free stories pretty frequently.
Or Google how to use Archive sites to read other articles. Once you learn to do that, you can read just about anything, anywhere.
Finally, if you want to see a different and well-researched opinion piece here, why not submit one?
That is my wish too. This publication continues to show articles from right wing media only, thus continuing to propagate fake news.
You can also see clear authoritarian (in other countries it would be dictatorial) motives in trying to gain complete control of the military, namely the national guard. There is absolutely no justification for that.
I think my biggest concern is the Morena capitulation to the cartels and refusing to fight a war. Mexico is effectively a cartel state and it can’t survive another 6 years of the same. [But of course journalists and periodicals can’t cover that in this country.]
While I was (and still am) alarmed by his interference with the INE, the trappings of democracy here are already largely an illusion. Yes, of course, it’s better to have them and try to strengthen them every election cycle. And absolutely NO ONE should trust a politician who wants to reduce election oversight.
Anyway, it’s not either/or, we can care about both things, giving the cartels a free pass and destroying election controls.
Good article. I don’t know if I agree with all of it, but I would like to read more political analysis in MND.
I live in an ejido outside of Monterrey, N.L. All the rich people I know are for Xochi. All the ejido members, are for AMLO. Maybe it is a class conflict as much as a political contest?
Also interesting. I live near an important oil refinery in Cadereyta. Caravans of oil tanker trucks now travel on the highway from Cadereyta to Reynosa under armed guard by the National Guard. I guess that tanker rustling is still a big problem. Do you know anything about this?
The rich are supporting “X” because they want to return power to the oligarchs that stole everything and privatized national resources such as oil, natural gas, electric power et.. AMLO is actually democratizing Mexico. The PAN, PRI & PRD are known by Mexicans as the King Pins of corruption. Amlo has over 75% support and the right is doing everything in it’s power with the aid of U.S. think tanks and other “independent organizations” to discredit AMLO, run smear campaigns that AMLO is supported by the cartels and is doing away with democracy. Nothing could be further than the truth. The wealthy have lost many of their priviledges and are extremely angry and are doing everything in their power to regain control. The Mexican news media is owned by the rich oligarchs and print daily fake news stories. El Reforma, El Universal, Milenio, El Financiero are akin to FOX news. Imagine having 20+ FOX news stations slamming the president.
The only reason why the majority of Mexicans support AMLO (mainly the poor class, middle class and some upper middle classes) because they watch the “Mañaneras” every morning, where AMLO reports on all that he is doing for the country. The Mexican people are aware that conventional media support the previous corrupt PAN-PRI-PRD governments. Mexican people finally feel there is a government that represents them and that is making things better. Haven’t you heard how AMLO increased minimum wage by 170%? It’s now in the constitution that seniors over 65 receive retirement, students from elementary to university levels receive scholarships, and the list goes on and on. Pick up a copy of La Jornada and you will read what is actually happening in Mexico.
I agree with the comment by [email protected] above as I’m also beginning to observe a very one sided editorial perspective at Mexico News Daily when it comes to AMLO. In my view he is the most extraordinary President of Mexico since Lazaro Cardenas. This is particularly true in comparison to his more modern predecessors from the PRI and the PAN. I hope that going forward the Mexico Daily News becomes more balanced. Happily, however, the overwhelming popularity of Morena and AMLO is not likely to be influenced by the expat editorial bias that seems to be emerging.
Hear Hear!
T’s short term is almost over. Time for new ideas.he American idea is a good idea for all countries which like freedom. One get a short term of office and then you become a civilian. AMLO’s term is almost over, time for new ideas and energy.
In México, like in USA, there have always been competitive visions (civil wars/left/right). AMLO has been a catalyst for profound changes in Mexico seeking to better the democratic structures. Of course that he exercises power, and is using it for the common good. This is the second article with tendency to the right, I would like to read another perspective.