Mexico’s negotiations on tariffs with the United States, ahead of a looming deadline and the 2026 review of the USMCA free trade pact, are around 90% complete, Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Tuesday.
Since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, the United States has imposed tariffs on a range of imports from Mexico, including steel, aluminum and light vehicles.
The United States’ fentanyl-related tariffs that apply to all Mexican goods that don’t comply with the USMCA could increase to 30% from 25% next week, as a 90-day pause on the implementation of the higher duties will expire on Oct. 29.
Ebrard was asked about that fast-approaching deadline at a press conference on Tuesday after a lengthy appearance before federal deputies.
“With respect to the 90 days, … I would say we have [made] very significant progress,” the economy minister said, referring to trade negotiations with the United States.
Ebrard, who noted that he was in Washington, D.C., last Thursday and Friday, subsequently estimated that progress of “around 90%” has been made on the trade issues Mexico and the United States are discussing “prior to the review” of the USMCA, which also includes Canada.
His remarks appeared to indicate that he was confident that Mexico will reach a deal to stave off the proposed increase in the tariff on goods that don’t comply with the USMCA.
Asked about the United States’ 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, Ebrard acknowledged that a resolution with the U.S. government hasn’t been reached.
“We have presented various proposals to the United States — they’re in this 10% in which I’m waiting for a response,” he said, adding that he hoped to get an answer “soon.”
Ebrard declined to detail the proposals Mexico has presented to the United States with respect to the steel and aluminum tariffs.
He previously said that it didn’t make sense for the United States to put tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum, as the U.S. has a surplus with Mexico on the trade of the metals.
President Claudia Sheinbaum said in June that the tariffs were “unjust” and “unsustainable,” and asserted that they had “no legal basis.”
Despite the United States’ imposition of tariffs on a variety of Mexican products, the majority of Mexico’s exports to the U.S. — 84% according to Ebrard — are not subject to duties.
Ebrard: Mexico wants to resolve trade disagreements with US before the USMCA review
Ebrard said that both Mexico and the United States have voiced grievances during bilateral trade negotiations.
“Mexico brought up many things that concern it, the United States did as well,” he said.
“Our objective, the goal, is that when the [USMCA] review starts [those issues] are no longer on the table. … I’m optimistic,” Ebrard said.
In late September, United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer accused Mexico of failing to comply with the USMCA and noted that his office was in talks with Mexican officials about the alleged breaches.
“There are areas where they’re supposed to be complying with the USMCA, where they’re not. This could be energy, telecommunications services, agricultural, all kinds of things,” Greer said without going into specifics.
In late July, when the 90-day pause on the United States’ proposed 30% tariff on non-USMCA compliant goods was announced, Trump said that Mexico had “agreed to immediately terminate its Non Tariff Trade Barriers, of which there were many.”
He also said that the United States would “be talking to Mexico over the next 90 Days with the goal of signing a Trade Deal somewhere within the 90 Day period of time, or longer.”
It appears likely that some kind of bilateral agreement that avoids the imposition of the proposed 30% tariff will be reached sometime in the next seven days.
The USMCA will continue, says Ebrard
Ebrard said that he had told deputies that within the framework of the UMSCA, “of course” there are “different bilateral issues.”
“The three countries do not always discuss the same issues,” he said.
Still, “all procedural and political signs” point to the UMSCA remaining a trilateral agreement, Ebrard said.
He said on Sept. 30 that much of the negotiations during the review of the USMCA will be bilateral rather than between Mexico, the United States and Canada.
USMCA-related talks “always have high bilateral content for natural reasons,” Ebrard said.
On Tuesday, he predicted that “some changes” will be made to the USMCA as a result of the 2026 review, but declared that he didn’t expect them to be “substantial.”
Sheinbaum has expressed confidence that the outcome of the review will be positive for Mexico, even though Trump has indicated that he wants to “renegotiate” the pact he signed off on during his first term as president.
The U.S. president is unhappy that the U.S. runs trade deficits with both Mexico and Canada, and has accused both of not doing enough to stem the flow of narcotics across their borders.
What US tariffs currently apply to imports from Mexico?
Trump has significantly undermined the USMCA this year by imposing tariffs on a range of goods from Mexico and Canada. Still, Mexican officials, including Sheinbaum and Ebrard, frequently assert that Mexico is in a better position vis-à-vis trade with the U.S. compared to other countries around the world.
These are the U.S. tariffs that are currently in effect for imports from Mexico.
- Tariffs of 25% apply to all Mexican goods that don’t comply with the USMCA free trade pact. These tariffs took effect on March 4 when the United States imposed 25% duties on all imports from Mexico. Trump suspended tariffs on imports from Mexico covered by the USMCA free trade pact on March 6.
- Tariffs of 50% apply to Mexican steel and aluminum and hundreds of products made with those metals. The United States imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum in March and increased the rate to 50% in June.
- Tariffs of 50% apply to Mexican copper.
- Tariffs on vehicles made in Mexico have been in effect since April 3. The United States imposed 25% tariffs on all vehicle imports on this date, but U.S. content in vehicles assembled in Mexico is exempt from the duty, lowering the effective tariff on vehicles made in Mexico.
- Auto parts made in Mexico that don’t comply with USMCA rules have been subject to a 25% tariff since May. The vast majority of auto parts made in Mexico do comply with the USMCA and are therefore exempt from the tariff.
- Fresh tomatoes from Mexico have faced a tariff of around 17% when entering the United States since July 14 after the U.S. withdrew from a 2019 agreement with Mexico that suspended an antidumping duty investigation.
The United States will impose 25% tariffs on imports of medium- and heavy-duty trucks on Nov. 1, but the U.S. content in such vehicles that are made in Mexico and comply with the USMCA will be exempt from the duty.
With reports from La Jornada, Reforma and El Financiero
