While Mexico’s construction sector has seen better days, with 22 of the country’s 31 states seeing annualized declines in the value of construction output, a handful of states have managed to buck the trend, with Baja California Sur, Sonora and Guanajuato leading the way.
México state, Nuevo León, Jalisco, Guerrero, Tamaulipas and Tlaxcala have also exhibited growth in the construction sector, as has Mexico City, according to the latest data released by the government.
Driven by tourism and the real estate sector, Baja California Sur posted 26.9% growth through the first nine months. The newspaper El Economista reported that hotels, vacation homes and services in the resort cities of Los Cabos and La Paz are driving urban and service construction.
Thanks to a combination of energy and industry, Sonora experienced a 19.7% increase in the value of production through September, while Guanajuato benefited from the dynamism of its automotive and auto parts industries, as well as construction of warehouses, industrial parks and associated road works to post 17% annualized growth in September.
Citing Héctor Magaña, an economist with experience in Mexico’s Finance Ministry, El Economista attributed the success of these three states to a similar bottom line: “private investment anchored in activities that currently have clear demand.”
Three of the other entities demonstrating positive results — Nuevo León, Jalisco and Mexico City — are getting a boost from ongoing preparations for the 2026 World Cup tournament. As co-host of the global soccer tournament, Mexico will stage 13 games in three cities — Monterrey (the Nuevo León state capital), Guadalajara (the Jalisco state capital) and Mexico City.
“These international commitments have helped to maintain the dynamism in construction,” Kristobal Meléndez, a financial analyst with the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research, told El Economista. “Though it is hardly a boom, it is a favorable trend compared to the rest of the country.”
Stadium renovations and upgrades to surrounding areas, remodeling of hotels and businesses, as well as road improvements helped output grow by 7.9% in Mexico City, 5.5% in Nuevo León and 3.7% in Jalisco.
As for the 22 states that were in the red, Magaña cited a slow start to bidding processes and investment schedules for public works projects, leading to fewer construction projects in the first part of the year.
At the same time, the conclusion of the government’s mega-projects in southeastern Mexico last year contributed to the downturn in several states, including Quintana Roo (–65.8%), Campeche (–62.7%), Tabasco (–61.1%) and Oaxaca (–53.1%)
Stagnation in the industry is a concern, Magaña said, “because construction is a fast engine of employment and local spending. When construction slows down, bricklayers and related trades suffer, but so do the transport of materials, hardware stores and services around each project.”
With reports from El Economista and Tribuna de México
