Some 30% of formal jobs in Mexico are at high risk of automation if companies adopt Artificial Intelligence (AI) solutions, according to a recent report by Banamex. 

The report from the bank’s Economic Studies Department, dubbed “AI and the Mexican Labor Market: An Analysis of Sectoral Impact,” warns that the adoption of AI will not affect all sectors equally. The jobs most at risk are in administrative services, retail, routine manufacturing, and transportation.

In contrast, jobs that require complex human interaction, creativity, negotiation, or non-routine physical work are less replaceable and will more likely be complemented, rather than replaced, by AI.

Banamex economist Rodolfo Ostoloza, who conducted the research, noted that “Mexico faces significant institutional deficits […] requiring profound reforms to maximize the benefits and mitigate the risks of AI.” 

He suggests retraining displaced workers and equipping them to complement AI, with the objective of “transforming the threat of job displacement into a productivity opportunity.”

Informal employment, which accounts for almost 55% of the Mexican workforce, could temporarily absorb those who lose their jobs in the formal sector. However, the report notes that “it comes at the significant cost of perpetuating low productivity, excluding workers from social protections and limiting tax collection.”

According to projections from the World Economic Forum (WEF) and studies by ManpowerGroup, more than 78 million new jobs are expected to be created globally by 2030. These positions will be concentrated in high value-added areas such as cybersecurity, Big Data analytics, renewable energy, and the growing demand for professionals in mental health, well-being, and user experience.

So far, Mexico reports that 69% of companies have increased their investment in automation, with effects on IT, sales and marketing. 

Alberto Alesi, managing director of ManpowerGroup for Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America, said earlier this year that the transition towards automation globally reflects a structural change in which technology acts as a catalyst for new job opportunities. However, he notes that it depends on the talent’s ability to adapt to the new demands.

Banamex concludes that Mexico has a window of opportunity to prepare before the mass adoption of AI. The report highlights that the difference will be in investing in education, training, social protection and digital infrastructure so that AI works as a tool for inclusive development and not as an engine of greater inequality.

With reports from El Comentario and El Economista