Thursday, December 5, 2024

Declining inflation fails to bring relief for food prices

Headline inflation in Mexico declined in the first half of November, falling to an annual rate of 4.56% from 4.76% across October.

Data published by the national statistics agency INEGI on Friday also showed that the closely-watched annual core inflation rate declined to 3.58% in early November from 3.80% in October.

The smells, colors and flavors mix in the days leading up to the celebration of the Day of the Dead in Malinalco, with the market that is set up where people can find waxes, bread, incense, flowers, fruit, alfeñique that they will use for their offerings.
Banxico said the governing board “expects that the inflationary environment will allow further reference rate adjustments.” (Crisanta Espinosa Aguilar/Cuartoscuro)

The national consumer price index increased 0.37% compared to the second half of October.

Both the annual headline rate and annual core rate came in below the median estimates of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

The decline in inflation in the first half of the month came after the headline rate ticked up in October. The last time the headline rate was lower than 4.56% across an entire month was in March.

The publication of the latest inflation data comes eight days after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) announced a 25-basis-point cut to its key interest rate, which is now set at 10.25%.

After the falls in world markets last Monday, which caused the destabilization of different currencies, this Thursday the Mexican peso registered a value of 19.80 in some bank branches.
Annual inflation for processed food, beverages and tobacco was 3.65% in the first half of November, while non-food goods were 1.17% more expensive. (Daniel Augusto/Cuartoscuro)

At the time, the central bank said that “looking ahead,” the governing board “expects that the inflationary environment will allow further reference rate adjustments.”

Banxico’s board will hold its final monetary policy meeting for 2024 on Dec. 19.

The Bank of Mexico, which targets inflation of 3% with tolerance of one percentage point in either direction, has reduced its benchmark interest rate on four occasions this year.

Inflation for fruit and vegetables rises above 18%

INEGI’s data shows that prices for fruit and vegetables were 18.17% higher in the first half of November than in the same period a year earlier. The rate increased by more than two percentage points compared to the 15.90% reading across October.

Meat was 5.19% more expensive than a year earlier, while prices in the combined agricultural products category (fruit, vegetables and meat) rose 11.33%.

Tenants of the city have reported the increase in the prices of the basic basket in recent months and even greater at the end of the month of July. The above, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI)
Fruits and vegetables were 18.17% higher in the first half of November than in the same period in 2023. (Galo Cañas/Cuartoscuro)

Annual inflation for processed food, beverages and tobacco was 3.65% in the first half of November, while non-food goods were 1.17% more expensive.

Services were 4.85% more expensive than a year earlier, down from a 4.98% annual inflation rate in October, while energy prices, including those for electricity and gasoline, increased 4.18%.

Mexican economy grows 1.6% in Q3 

INEGI published separate data on Friday that showed that the Mexican economy grew 1.6% in annual terms in the third quarter of 2024. That growth rate is slightly higher than the 1.5% preliminary data reading reported by INEGI in late October.

Quarter-over-quarter growth was 1.1%.

INEGI’s data also showed that Mexico’s GDP increased 1.5% annually in the first nine months of the year, a significant slowdown compared to the 3.2% growth rate recorded in 2023.

With reports from El Economista and El Financiero

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