Mexico’s share of the U.S. market for imported goods increased by more than three percentage points in the first two months of 2026, allowing it to consolidate its position as the United States’ top trade partner.

U.S. Census Bureau data shows that Mexico’s exports to the United States were worth US $86.82 billion in January and February, a 4.2% annual increase.

Mexico’s share of the $514.14 billion U.S. market for imports in the first two months of 2026 was 16.9%, up from 13.8% in the same period of 2025. Around 80% of Mexico’s total export revenue comes from goods shipped to the United States.

The United States’ total outlay on imports declined 15% annually to $514.14 billion in January and February.

Mexico’s gain is China and Canada’s loss

The increase Mexico recorded in its exports to the United States in the first two months of the year, and in its share of the U.S. market for imports, stands in contrast to the performance of Canada and China, which are the second and third largest trade partners of the world’s largest economy.

Canada’s exports to the U.S. were worth $57.5 billion in January and February, down 21.5% from the same period of 2025. Canada’s share of the U.S. market for imports declined to 11.2% in early 2026 from 12.1% a year earlier.

China’s exports to the U.S. were worth $40.01 billion in January and February, down 45.4% from the same period of last year. China’s share of the U.S. market for imports declined to 6.6% in the first two months of 2026 from 12.1% a year earlier.

The data indicates that Mexico has benefited from an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war during U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, as well as increased U.S. protectionism against Canada. Trump has also imposed tariffs on Mexican goods since returning to the White House in January 2025, but overall U.S. protectionism against Canada is even greater.

Despite U.S. tariffs on Mexican products, including vehicles, steel and aluminum, Mexico retains largely favorable trading conditions with the United States thanks to the USMCA free trade pact.

Mexico remains the top US trade partner 

U.S. Census Bureau data shows that Mexico imported U.S. goods worth $60.49 billion in January and February, an annual increase of 10.6%. While Mexico’s outlay on U.S. goods increased, its share of the total market for U.S. exports actually decreased, falling to 15.9% from 16.5% a year earlier.

Two-way trade between the United States and Mexico was worth $147.32 billion in January and February, up 6.8% from the same period of 2025. The United States’ trade with all countries around the world declined 4.5% in the period.

The United States’ trade with Mexico in the first two months of 2026 accounted for 16.4% of its total trade with all countries, which came to $895.58 billion.

That percentage — a record high — increased from 14.7% in the same period of last year. Thus Mexico consolidated itself as the United States’ top trading partner, a position it has maintained in recent years.

Two-way trade between the United States and Canada was worth $110.33 billion in January and February, a 14.4% annual decrease.

The United States trade with Canada in the first two months of 2026 accounted for 12.3% of its total trade. That percentage declined from 13.7% in early 2025. The value of the United States’ exports to Canada fell 5% annually to $52.83 billion in January and February.

Two-way trade between the United States and China was worth $56.29 billion in the first two months of 2026, an annual decrease of 39.9%. The El Economista newspaper reported that the amount was the lowest U.S.-China two-way trade figure for the first two months of any year since 2009.

The United States trade with China in January and February accounted for 6.3% of its total trade. That percentage fell from 10% in the first two months of last year. The value of the United States’ exports to China declined 20.1% annually to $16.27 billion in the first two months of 2026.

While the United States’ trade with China decreased significantly in January and February, its trade with Taiwan increased in a major way. U.S.-Taiwan trade was worth $51.81 billion in the first two months of the year, an annual increase of 80.4%. Taiwan was thus the United States’ fourth-largest trade partner in the period. The United States’ imports from Taiwan increased 97% annually to $42.81 billion in the period.

The bottom line  

Mexico is clearly benefiting from the United States’ reduction in trade with China, but so too are various Asian countries — and to a greater extent in some cases, as the data for U.S. trade with Taiwan demonstrates. The almost 100% increase in the United States’ outlay on imports from Taiwan reflects both its shift away from trade with China and high demand in the U.S. for Taiwanese goods, especially semiconductors, which are critical inputs for U.S. AI companies.

The United States’ imports from some other Asian countries have also increased amid the U.S.-China trade war. In the first two months of 2026, the U.S. spent $35.32 billion on imports from Vietnam, an annual increase of 41.8%, and $23.05 billion on South Korean goods, up 17.1% from a year earlier.

The publication of the latest U.S. trade data last Thursday came two weeks after Mexican and U.S. officials began formal talks as part of this year’s USMCA review process. One of Trump’s complaints about the United States’ trade relationship with Mexico is that the U.S. has a large trade deficit. On that front, there was some modestly good news for the U.S. president in the latest data. Mexico’s surplus with the U.S. in January and February was $26.33 billion, down 8% from the same period last year.