With the US election just a few days away, anxiety is high on both sides of the American political aisle. Nobody seems to know who the winner will be, and the language from both sides in the US has been apocalyptic about what will happen if the other side wins. So I suppose it’s no surprise people feel the way they do.
Last week, the Wall Street Journal ran a story on how people were coping with pre-election stress. Several of the people interviewed referenced their favorite drug or alcoholic beverage to help them keep calm.
Here in Mexico, the stress is also high — perhaps even more so. Mexicans and residents in the country are dealing with a barrage of headlines about the new Mexican administration under President Sheinbaum (which began just a month ago). At the same time, they are trying to figure out what the new U.S. President might mean for their own country.
It’s important to remember that many Mexicans have family on both sides of the border and, as a result, are very impacted by U.S.-Mexico relations.
Is a ‘big move’ coming for the Mexican peso?
In the past several months, as per Banxico, the Mexican peso has weakened sharply and is now above 20 to the US dollar. Every day I read pundits predicting that it could soon go to 25. Despite the confidence of those making the predictions, I have yet to read any rational economic arguments for such a big move.
As we have witnessed, currencies often move irrationally in the short term, and a big Mexican peso move is definitely possible.
Further complicating a clear view of the future, there have been mixed messages coming from the Mexican government.
On one hand, key members of the Sheinbaum administration have moved quickly to send positive messages to investors. A visit to New York City by Mexico’s Finance Minister, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, as well as statements by Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard of the importance of creating a favorable environment for foreign direct investment have been positive steps.
How do we make sense of all that is happening?
The administration’s recent U.S.-Mexico CEO Dialogue was also a positive first step. Sheinbaum’s team has been clear that they view increased cooperation and coordination with North America and reduced imports from elsewhere as a top priority.
On the other hand, Sheinbaum’s push to move forward on judicial reform continues to cause alarm. Despite concerns voiced by both domestic and foreign businesses and leaders, the administration has moved quickly, resulting in the tendering of resignations of eight of the 11 Supreme Court justices on the same day earlier this week.
A careful reading of the details of the resignations brings passionate arguments from each side as to the real motives — but it’s clear that such a move does not improve investor confidence, to say the least.
So how do we make sense of all that is happening? I’m often asked by people on both sides of the border which US presidential candidate I think would be best for Mexico. Unfortunately, I do not have a straightforward answer.
Former President Trump by far has had the most vocal comments about what he would do with tariffs with Mexico. As a result, many think he would be “bad for Mexico”. But the current USMCA agreement, which has undeniably been good for the country and allowed Mexico to steadily increase exports to the point of now being the No. 1 exporter to the United States, was signed during the Trump administration.
Ironically, Vice President Harris was one of only 11 Senators to vote against the agreement. If elected president, Trump would most certainly take a hard line on Mexico on many topics, but it appears he would likely take an even harder line on China, which could ultimately benefit Mexico.
Harris might not be as hard on tariffs on Mexico, but also might not be as hard on China. As much as I would like to provide a clear answer, it’s really not obvious yet which candidate would be better for Mexico. There are still too many unknowns.
Only a few days of high anxiety remain. Let’s pray for a clear winner and a clear path forward. That clarity will hopefully allow Mexico and the new U.S. administration to begin engaging on the many important issues and opportunities that the two countries face.
Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for over 27 years.
If Harris wins, expect a very different America. With her proposals such as capital gains tax on “ implied” increases in asset value annually, raising capital gains tax to 28%, raising corporate tax to be higher than all China’s, building Millions of new homes for the poor with taxpayer money, repatriation for African Americans, $25,000 USD for all new homeowners, Medicare and Social Security for age eligible Illegal aliens, as well as free food, hotel, and one time transportation for them , will in all likelihood cause out of control inflation, far higher, not lower interest rates, and I
believe a far more durable and sustained increase in the value of the Peso. I also believe the probability of a large scale war will be inevitable.
She’s accomplished nothing in her 4 years in this office, and nothing in prior years in other offices. As a Senator, Harris was absent for about 75% of all votes, as a prosecutor in SF , with 50,000 sexual assaults, she refused to prosecute a single 1, and as an Attorney General, she did no more. Her strong position against law and order, her applauding those who marched in support of Hamas. and her flip flopping on every single issue to please voters, does not bode well for a strong America. As border Czar, she never even visited it .
Say what you want about Trumps personality, but he was the ultimate problem solver. Lowest number of illegals, greatest economy in U.S. history, amazing support for police and law and order( Harris began the movement to defund our Police), lowest rate of inflation, no new wars, lowered corporate taxes, and much more while clobbering regulation, allowing small business to breath ( the Biden: Harris regime has done quite the opposite on every front, and ushering in unbridled regulation making difficult for young entrepreneurs to get off the ground. We had a near total absence of fentanyl under Trump, bit now, twice as much as required the kill every single American thanks to the open border and generous award system the Biden Harris administration has offered to an avalanche of illegals aliens. Venezuela crime rate is down 75%, as they’ve emptied their prisons, while we picked up many a silent over night flights so Harris might get a few more votes on Election Day.
I think Trump will seek to truly strengthen the relationship between of our two countries. Though his protectionism will making it harder for industries to export to the U.S., I believe his administration will use tariffs with Mexico on a far smaller scale than elsewhere, and look to strengthen all sorts of initiatives between both countries when it comes to bolstering Mexico’s protection militarily, advantages technologically and more. In the end, a strong America. should mean a stronger Mexico.
I agree 100%. Everything is negotiable. Truckers backbone of our country. Bringing gas/Diesel prices down will help everyone of whatever income status. Crime and surges of immigrants into our cities, towns – the tax payer cannot support all the allowances given. How can the illegal immigrant pay a thousand$ to come to America and then expect hardworking Americans to pay the bill. Do ppl forget the Govt has no money — it’s the ppls money. I heard Hillary Clinton clearly say in Lewiston Maine presidential rally years ago: “The Government is not in the business to make money” ( later removed in press transcripts ). I clearly remember standing there, thinking what a weird statement to make. Some things stay with you. Having that statement removed also stayed with me. This is all do insane. Victims of violence of men women children on both sides of the border. The cartels will suffer with Trump and Madam President of Mexico in agreement. Tariffs are just negotiating tools. Countries charge us more now than we charge them. Biden has actually brought in more tariff$ than the Trump Admin nearing double in billions. Stop the wars. Priority. !!!
So much misinformation from you all. You believe what you hear but don’t research to find out the truth.
First of all, social security is not paid to illegal aliens having worked for the agency my entire career. Secondly illegal immigrants paid to 100 billion in federal taxes last year with the USA government issuing them tax id numbers…yes to illegals so they can collect their work taxes but they do not benefit from any of it. Fentanyl was down during trump era because of Covid. Only USA citizens and permanent residents were allowed to cross. As far as sex change operations, the law is the same law that was in effect during trump administration… nothing has changed and he certainly didn’t change it. Each state has their own policies to determine who needs identification and who doesn’t. Why was the election fraudulent for trump but not for any of the other Republicans running on the same ballot. If you think that the people of the USA won’t be effected by tariffs you have another thing coming. Who do you think will pay for the price. The consumer because the cost of foods will increase. I could go on. Don’t believe everything you see or hear. Sad to me that one would believe what comes out of trumps mouth. Because of his 34 convictions he is not allowed to enter 37 countries including Mexico.
We can only hope for a better future for both countries.
Happily retired and living the good life in Mexico
Thank you, Jerri
Thanks for highlighting the facts 👍
Thank you so much. Evidence is not a word in the Republician camp. Million dollar giveaways says it all for the Trump camp!
Thank you, so many people believe all this misinformation. It’s simple, all they have to do is research.
Thank you for clarifying. I am so tired of the mis and disinformation coming from Fox, Twitter, and other disreputable sources.
There are informed Americans out there!
LMAO. Randy, you seem to be an even bigger liar than Trump is. Too bad. Kamala will win easily on tuesday and the U.S., México, and the World will be better for it. Times up for the ex president and grifter in chief.
💯
I hope you are right.
To breath?
Not true, but what is a fact? Trump nominated the SCOTUS judges who overturned Roe and is now set for a national abortion ban even in the case of rape or incest. Horrible legislation for women.
Sorry .. But PS ( apologies, but can’t help myself)
FYI, she is now pushing for taxpayer funded sex changes for imprisoned transsexuals , and fully supports Newsom’s recent legislation, to allow tax payer funded sex changes of children from any state to California without parental disclosure, as well as his recent law prohibiting poll workers to require any form of identification or proof of citizenship from anyone that wants to cast a vote. It’s lunacy!
This is an issue that affects .05% o the population, But gets about 20% of the press in right wing media. Why don’t you worry about real issues and listen to someone besides Trump and Fox News.
I hope you are right. Exactly!
Not true, but what is a fact? Trump nominated the SCOTUS judges who overturn Roe and is now set for a national abortion ban even in the case of rape or incest. Horrible legislation for women.
Trump, as part of his immigration policy, may consider taxing remittences as well in an effort to push for self- deportation over the next 4 years. As globalism fades, EM nations may find themselves in a race to competitively devalue their currencies to maintain or gain market share in the US. 80% of Mexico’s exports are to the US. Mexico’s elites will devalue the peso to maintain competitive pricing to US importers, shifting the costs of the tariffs to the Mexican poor and middle class via inflation.
Randy Is spot on!
Sounds like Randy loves Trump, a criminal rapist!
In the longer run, Mexico’s trade surplus with the U.S. is not good for it as it weakens its best customer and fuels calls there for protectionism. Mexico can start with an important symbolic gesture of ending all the border harassment of people wanting to bring their own things like cars and electronics in. The limit on dollar value of personal property brought in should be drastically raised to at least $5K U.S. Mexico needs to buy a lot more from its best customer to bring trade into better balance.
Most importantly, Mexico needs to be fully responsible for policing its own side of the border and stop being a conduit for illegal immigration and drug smuggling into the U.S. It is time for this country to grow up and act like a good neighbor.
Just these modest steps would make a huge difference in how Mexico is perceived by Americans in general.
I get gouged a large fee for what I bring back from Walmart in AZ. I get a receipt for $100, then separate receipts for the rest. Hide what I can. That’s how I stay under the radar, regardless of having a permanent resident card, they don’t care. If I bring back to Mexico, an electronic, I get gouged worse.
What’s the alternative? Democracy or autocracy? A democratic form of government or a dictatorship? Is it not better to give Mexicans, and other immigrants, the chance to become American citizens or militarily collecting the undocumented, divide families, put those in camps, and the send them back to their respective countries?
Would Mexico prefer a convicted felon, a women abuser, and a tax cheat to be US President? Economists believe Trump’s economic policies would balloon the US budget and destroy the economy. Is that good for Mexico? Would tariffs on Mexican goods be beneficial to Mexico? Would building a wall be beneficial? Would closing the border be beneficial? Is dividing immigrant families acceptable to Mexico?
On foreign policy, would allowing Putin to move beyond the Ukraine and invade Poland and other NATO countries and possibly cause a world war, benefit Mexico?
Think seriously, the world’s stability is at stake.
GC
Thank you for this comment. You are so right!
So much misinformation here. Check facts before you choose to believe…were do you people get your information?
If Trump is elected and follows through with exporting all illegal aliens that would be a huge number of people deported to Mexico. Yes many are from other countries but the first place they would land is Mexico. Besides the moral issue this would cause a huge strain on the country’s resources.
At 80 I’ve seen a lot of life and too much politics. Any nation which sinks so low as to elect a lying and vindictive con man and criminal as is Donald Trump will get the ugliness and chaos which has infected his entire business and political life. The past 10 years of ugly politics in the U.S. since Trump came down that escalator have been a nightmare. He’s a fascist, insults people of every non-white race, women and the disabled. I would invite a thiousand illegal immigrants to live on my block in America before wanting Donald Trump anywhere near my city of New Orleans.
I‘m guessing most of you based in Mexico have already had to vote.
For those in the US who still have the chance to vote, consider this: The Presidential Campaign is like a beauty contest and focuses on the candidates personality in stead of looking at the facts.
Consider how this has affected your life over the last 10 years – has your life been positively or negatively impacted?
If you don’t trust the facts, consider thes candidate’s values and attitudes – as reflected in his/her language and how it resonates with you. What emotions do you feel?
Anger, anxiety, frustration and depression? Does that bode good for your future and your family?
Or does your candidate inspire you with hope, energy and a sense of optimism and solidarity despite the huge social challenges mankind faces.
What would you prefer for your sef and your loved ones?
Listen to your heart and then choose the candidate who offers the best outcome for you and your family’s future.
❤️ Se votamos ganamos 🙌
I didn’t realize so many right wingers were subscribers. Our democracy is at stake. Speculating that a Kamala Harris administration’s policies would be bad for Mexico is premature at best. Trump’s tariffs, and his racist hatred of immigrants and Latinos generally SHOULD be causing angst in Mexico. A Harris administration would likely be more open to favorable trade arrangements with Mexico and an honest, not scapegoating policy approach to the country.
Thank you for this comment. You are so right! My sentiments exactly!
paraphrasing “I didn’t realize so many left wingers were subscribers . . . ” Alinsky’s Rules 4 and 5 are covering you like imported Chinese honey . . .
Don’t believe and fall for all of Harris “promises” and “lies” to win the elections and “fool” the dumb idiots that are following her. She is a “dumb” and “incompetent” person who doesn’t know anything nor has accomplished anything useful in her whole life. She isn’t qualified: to be the president of the greatest country of the world. Don’t “hold your breath” waiting for her to become the president, it isn’t going to happen. The “peso” is going to take a nosedive, never seen before. Our two countries are not going to be the same anymore. Hugh “tariffs” are coming on all “goods” and “services” from Mexico, including on all electric cars and electronics. Don’t build any more Mexican electric cars thinking about selling them in the U.S. and start shipping them back to China.
Don’t believe all the Harris “propaganda” and the “fake news” because the Democratic Party is going down in “flames”. God is with us and is on our side with us this time. Trump will prevail and win.
Ok, Mr Trumper, lies, lies…….
What are you talking about? Trump is the one who is going to impose tariffs!
Thank you for another well-balanced and informative article. I really enjoy reading my copy of Mexico News Daily (MND). It’s too bad that so many angry, disrespectful and vocal Americans have moved to this wonderful country. I wish that they would return to wherever they came from.
Randy, it sounds like you have been drinking the Impotus kool aid. Trump is the worst thing that can happen not just for the United States but for the world. Everyone knows he only cares about himself and is a puppet for others (project 2025) and is running to stay out of prison.
Randy Right on no lies just facts other i side is diraroous
The brilliant Jerri giusti talks about misinformation? According to Jerri, a self proclaimed expert on Soc Security who spent an “entire career” working for the SS administration , I’m misinformed. Per Jerri, the expert. there is no way Harris is going to allow illegals to get social security. Jerri, what don’t you get? So I’ll share a secret . She plans on making Illegals LEGAL. And when they work, and are of age, they will receive Medicare, and SS. That means the sustainability of these and other programs will be severely diminished. Law biding Americans, including legal immigrants will be punished. It appears when you speak you’re mind, you have nothing to loose:)
On another note to Harris supporters, what are the significant things she’s accomplished in her last 4 years? How about in her entire career? Can you please list them
in order of importance?
If they become legal, then they are paying into the system and are entitled to SSI and Medicare they paid for. Some of these comments are unbelievably stupid.
Instead of respecting the rights of others to have opinions and discourse, you frame it all as unbelievably stupid. Sounds like the pot calling the kettle black, but thank you for your incredibly meaningful contribution Meryl.
Of course if they “ become” legal they’re entitled to the same benefits as law abiding citizens. Trump himself would be totally on board with that. But Harris wants to do make illegals legal because she just freaking wants to. Not because they paid the same right of passage required by all other legal immigrants. No consequences for behavior is precisely the mantra from the far left. You can see how well that approach has worked for Amlo. And where do you draw the line on throwing laws to the wind? Spend a few days in one of Americas sanctuary cities and see the results of truly blind justice. It’s destroying the very fabric of America.
As far as another reader who fears a Trump win means he plans to dump all those that entered illegally in Mexico, that’s not what he said. Illegals will be returned to the countries from which they came.
News flash. Trump Won.
It is sad and outrageous to read “regurgitated” conspiracy theories here. @Randy. Be better informed, there are so many sources -right, center and left- that can help you to have a less biased information. Your posts seem to have only one source -no bueno, amigo-.
It is my duty to destroy all fascist states as I believe in democracy, not republics, not a constitution built upon slavery and low wages, but a democracy, one person one vote. At 79 my risk level is low.
Writing again, but just to remind us all that prior to the “final solutuion” the Third Reich had a decade of scapegoating, ever rising anti-semitism and the arrest and imprisonment of any who did not fit the aryan mold. The insulting of ethnic groups, religions, women, homosexuals, atheist and are thinkers of every kind were the precoursers to all authoritarian control and the Trump coalition has it in spades. Those of us old enough to remember life before Roe v. Wade, the rights of women to live under their own names and have their own credit after divorce, the proliferation of Jim Crow and lack of access for people of color and the accumulation of rights that have grown over the last 50 years will live to repeat the past. Americans live on the highest material level ever achieved in the history of mankind. We choose the hope for lower inflation and the privilege of making two truck payments, a bathroom for every child, a TV in every room, and more need for “storage of our stuff” over kindness, humanity, civility and peace. I’m in my eighties and will continue living in Mexico and traveling the world as my privilege allows me to do, but with the always present sadness reminding me of the spiritual and humanist rupture in our American culture which has welcomed the brutes and the mean spirited back to repeat the tragedy of civilizations which came before us.