Ever since Trump took office north of the border, things have been…interesting? Exciting? Terrifying? One’s personal politics will determine their feelings on that, I suppose.
But one thing’s for certain: the coronation of “King Donald” has made and continues to make waves all over the world. As its closest neighbor to the south, Mexico of course stands to feel the effects especially strongly. Interestingly, the ground has not shaken all that much. At least not yet.
I believe this is in great part because of the steady hand and even steadier disposition of our president, Claudia Sheinbaum.
And what does Donald think of Claudia? He loves her. He has called her a “marvelous woman.”
“I’m sorry, what?” It’s the nicest surprise, for me, that’s come from his presidency so far. After all, the two are ideologically on opposite ends of the spectrum. While Sheinbaum focuses on help for the poor, Trump’s team is salivating as they eye social welfare programs for cuts. Where Sheinbaum has a background as an environmental scientist, Trump denies climate change. It’s not a friendship anyone would expect.
There is a lot of potential for conflict between the US and Mexico. The two countries have always had a relationship equal parts uneasy and warm, with a raspy history. The US forced Mexico to “sell” their northern territories to them. Yikes. The U/S/ invaded Mexico, more than once. Double yikes.
The border is a constant source of some very intense feelings, and many Mexicans reside within the U.S., undocumented but contributing to U.S. success. The U.S. accuses Mexico of allowing drugs to enter the country. Mexico counters that the drugs will always find a way to enter if there’s demand, which is true. There’s also the issue of guns: nearly all of the weapons criminal gangs use against people in Mexico are from “up north.” Some of those criminal gangs, by the way, have been classified by the U.S. as foreign terrorist organizations. I suppose you could make the same “demand” argument regarding the guns, though you’d think they’d be a bit easier to spot since they can’t be smuggled inside banana peels or whatever.
But Mexico is also the U.S.’s number one trading partner. Yes, Mexico and the U.S. are a bit like conjoined twins, albeit it unequally strong: if you hurt one, you hurt the other. Our fates are inexorably intertwined. And our leaders know that.
So it’s been a rocky road, but so far, so…okay.
How has she managed it? By a careful balance between refusing to grovel and refusing to fight defiantly.
She didn’t hit back at Trump about the whole “Gulf of America” thing, for example; she instead threatened to sue Google, and even made a joke about how the US should instead be called “Mexican America.” She spoke about an “invasion” of Mexico — but of guns — turning Trump’s “invasion” language right back onto him. But importantly, she’s going after gun manufacturers, not him.
And right when Trump was ready to levy devastating tariffs last month, Sheinbaum calmly stepped in with a deal: more troops on the border.
If there’s one thing Trump loves, it’s being seen as a great deal-maker. No matter that those troops likely won’t be able to do much to keep the potent drug from entering the US; this is about optics.
This was only a postponement, however, of one month. Will those 25% tariffs go ahead on March 4th? My money — and my hope — is on no. Sheinbaum will cut another deal. I have no idea what this deal will look like, but I have faith that it will happen, and that it won’t be too painful for Mexico.
As Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard has pointed out, the pain for U.S. consumers and workers would be exacting: he predicted rising prices as well as up to 400,000 US jobs lost.
This indeed would be painful. The question, though, is whether Trump and his team care. Prices have already soared in the U.S., for example, and Elon Musk has been at the helm of an effort to cut government jobs left and right. So while it’s an argument that certainly appeals to U.S. consumers, it might matter little to the U..S government. I doubt the Trump team will find it convincing.
The question for me still stands: what is it that Trump sees in Sheinbaum, and saw in López Obrador, that he likes so much?
In the case of AMLO, they shared some similarities in terms of personal temperament. They were both extremely sensitive to criticism, despite literally being the most powerful people in their respective countries. Like Trump, AMLO routinely criticized the media as being “fake” or run by the opposition.
Yikes…I was not a fan of that.
But with Claudia, it’s hard to see any similarities at all. Nevertheless, Trump respects strength — check! — and he respects someone showing up to make a deal — check.
Finally, an idea of why Mexico has handled Trump so well all along: Trump behaves more like a gangster than a politician. And if there’s one thing Mexican politicians know how to do, it’s deal with gangsters.
When AMLO went out of his way to warmly greet El Chapo’s mother, I blanched. I did the same when criminal narco groups passed out “dispensas” and Christmas presents. How could the Mexican government allow themselves to be humiliated like that?
But now I know: until we can figure out how to get rid of narcos in Mexico once and for all, we have to work with them. We have to sit down at the table with them. If we don’t, we’re toast.
And the same is true for Trump: if we don’t figure out how to appease him and stay in his good graces, we’re toast.
This disturbs and angers me. But hey — that’s politics, baby.
There is one thing Trump and I agree on, at least: Claudia Sheinbaum is a marvelous woman.
Sarah DeVries is a writer and translator based in Xalapa, Veracruz. She can be reached through her website, sarahedevries.substack.com.
