Thursday, April 3, 2025

Best-case scenario for tourism this year is 26% fewer visitors than 2019

International tourist numbers will increase 33.7% in 2021 compared to last year in a best-case scenario, according to the federal Tourism Ministry (Sectur), but even if that upturn is achieved tourism would still be well below 2019 levels.

According to Sectur’s most optimistic projection, 33.1 million international tourists will come to Mexico this year, 8.3 million more than in 2020 when tourism slumped due to the coronavirus pandemic.

However, 33.1 million visitors would be 26% lower than the record 45 million international tourists who traveled to Mexico in 2019.

In a “conservative” scenario, 30.4 million international tourists will visit Mexico this year, Sectur said in a statement Monday, while in a “pessimistic” scenario the figure will be 25.2 million.

The figure for the latter would represent a 1.5% increase compared to 2020 but a 44% decline compared to 2019.

Sectur said that whether an optimistic, conservative or pessimistic scenario unfolds will depend on the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic around the world as well as progress in the application of Covid-19 vaccines, “which has already begun in our country and the main markets for tourists to Mexico.”

Spending by international tourists while in Mexico is predicted to be US $16 billion in 2021 in the best scenario, which would be an increase of 42% or $4.7 billion compared to 2020. However, that level of expenditure would represent a decrease of abut 35% compared to 2019 when international tourists spent $24.8 billion here.

In a conservative scenario, international tourists will spend $14.4 billion in 2021 while in a pessimistic one the outlay will be $11.5 billion, Sectur said.

The Tourism Ministry predicted that average hotel occupancy across 70 Mexican destinations will be 56.6% in 2021 in an optimistic scenario.

That would be 4.7% lower than the average in 2019. In a conservative scenario, average occupancy will be 50.9%, 10.4% lower than in 2019, Sectur said, while in a pessimistic scenario hotels will be 46.1% full, a decline of 15.2%.

Mexico News Daily 

Have something to say? Paid Subscribers get all access to make & read comments.
Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum stands at the presidential podium looking out at an audience off-camera with her fist raised and her mouth open as if cheering. Behind her is a wall with the words in Spanish: Plan Mexico, Strenghtening the Economy and Well-Being, Mexico City April 3, 2025.

Sheinbaum unveils an even more ambitious version of her transformative Plan México

2
Sheinbaum said the projects she announced as part of Plan México will bring about more well-paid employment, less poverty and inequality, greater investment and production and more innovation.
A clear-cut strip of land cuts through the jungle along the Maya Train route in Yucatán

Government promises restoration plan for Maya Train environmental damage

0
Government officials said the track's builders will be responsible for funding a restoration effort that includes reforestation and improving natural migration corridors.
Cans of Cororna Extra beer lying on a bed of large ice cubes

Trump announces new US tariffs on Mexican… beer

15
Mexico didn't end up on Donald Trump's "liberation day" list of enemy countries, although the U.S. did impose tariffs on a surprising Mexican item: beer in cans.