As much of Mexico experiences high temperatures this week with the third heat wave of the season, the latest national drought monitor report published by Conagua (National Water Commission) on Monday shows that drought also continues to increase nationwide.
Some level of drought was affecting 70.76% of the territory in Mexico through May 15, with different locations falling somewhere on Conagua’s range of “moderate” to “exceptional” drought conditions.
That’s up nearly 7% from the agency’s April 15 report.
The cyclical El Niño climate pattern, which began last June, features warming conditions in the eastern Pacific Ocean and has been blamed for high temperatures and dry conditions in Mexico. This week, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) warned that in some states, temperatures would be in excess of 45 degrees Celsius.
The agency has also forecast two additional heat waves to come over the next month.
Forecasters predict a strong La Niña phenomenon — characterized by strong winds pushing warmer Pacific waters west and bringing cooler temperatures to Mexico’s Pacific coast — will follow as El Niño concludes, and should bring heavy rains to western Mexico this summer. Additionally, meteorologists predict an active hurricane season in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
Even though rain is forecast over the next 7–10 days in many parts of the country, total precipitation for May will be below normal; that’s particularly bad news for the 51% of Mexico which is experiencing severe, extreme or exceptional drought — Mexico’s three worst drought ratings.
Mexico City finds itself in the severe drought category, and Conagua’s latest report indicates that the Cutzamala water system — the transfer system which supplies roughly 25% of Mexico City’s water — is operating at historically low levels (at 29.8% capacity).
It is the first time Cutzamala has ever been recorded at below 30% capacity.
Three of the reservoirs that make up the Cutzamala system are at alarmingly low levels. The El Bosque reservoir in Michoacán is at 38.1% of capacity, the Villa Victoria reservoir in México state is at 25.5% and the Valle de Bravo reservoir is at 27.5%.
The water scarcity has prompted federal, Mexico City and México state water authorities to reduce the flow into the Mexico City metro area to 8 cubic meters per second. Water supply has been restricted several times in recent years, steadily being reduced from 14.8 cubic meters per second in June 2022 — a rate that had been sustained for at least the previous seven years, according to a report authored by Conagua and the World Bank.
News outlet ADN 40 reported that “day zero” for the Cutzamala water system — when water would run out unless rains refill the reservoirs — would have been as soon as June 26, had the flow not been reduced.
ADN 40 also reported that the Cutzamala system requires the equivalent of 488 days of rain to restore its reservoirs to an acceptable level.
According to the national weather agency, last year’s rainfall was 32% below the historical average.
It’s strange that so many news outlets claimed “day zero” meant CDMX would totally run out of water, when really it refers to the Cutzamala system potentially running dry (which supplies 25% of the water). But the city’s underground reserves could completely make up the shortfall if that happened, right? Reduced rainfall is obviously a problem for the long term, but the fear-mongering and misinformation on this issue has been astounding!
What underground reserves are you referring to?
The city sank into the aquifer a long time ago and is still doing so.
This is from a recent article on the subject: “Experts consulted said it’s unlikely that the city will reach the critical point at which the water supply is completely depleted. Even if the drought persists and the reservoirs dry up, the city still has enough underground water reserves.” It sounds like there’s no risk of running out of water in the short to medium-term, that’s all I’m saying.
¡Mamá Mía! We have 14 varieties of fruit trees, 80 in all located in Michoacan and we have no water to maintain them! Breaking my heart to see all of them dying after more than 30 years of tending them! Our rancho hardly has enough water to run the pump one hour every other day! The rain can’t come early enough!
Allow me to contribute a few facts: CDMX currently extracts double (!) the groundwater volume of what is recharged. Therefore, the groundwater level sinks at 1,5 m/yr., with a max. of 6 m/yr. in a specific basin. The wells have to be constantly drilled deeper, some already over 1000m deep, and at enormous pumping cost we find water of increasingly poor quality, posing major challenges for treatment. At the same time, surface water reserves (Cutzamala, Lerma) are dwindling. In a word, CDMX (and many other parts of the country) is far from hydrological sustainability, and extensive measures in groundwater management, water recycling, and water conservation will be required to emerge from the crisis. It must be considered counterproductive to spread word about miraculous reserves that are not yet being used.
The handwriting is on the wall for Mexico’s water supply, yet you hear virtually nothing (despite Mexico’s nearly 6,000 miles of coastline) about building desalination plants. I find this astounding!
As I was reading your article, I look out of the window and saw my neighbor was washing his cars
Peter Larson, I agree solar / wind powered desalination plants would be a nice option for coastal areas, however for CDMX? To do desalination at sea level, and pump the water 2,300 m up to CDMX? A simple calculation: to pump the missing 25 m3/s, considering pump efficiency, pipe friction, would take ca. 1,000 MW = 1 GW shaft power of all pumps together. Can you imagine the absurd size of power stations to produce this?
(and yes, I am a hydraulic engineer)