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Exchange rate forecaster expects 20.30 pesos to dollar by year’s end

Further decline anticipated following a US-China trade agreement

The Mexican peso will lose almost 3% of its value by the end of the year, finishing up at 20.30 to the dollar, according to Gabriel Casillas, president of the Economic Studies Committee at the Mexican Finance Executives Institute and head of economic analysis at Banorte.

In an interview with Bloomberg, Casillas said the peso will decline because of a difficult international situation.

He added that so far this year, the peso’s variance has been minimal because of high interest rates and the fact that President López Obrador’s policies are regaining the trust of international markets.

Casillas also predicted that U.S. President Donald Trump will sign an agreement with China in late December in an attempt to speed up the economy, which will help the peso maintain an average exchange rate of 19.80 pesos per dollar in the first half of 2020.

“Trump needs to avoid a recession,” he said. “That might not lead to a complete agreement with China, but it will lead to some advances in the right direction.”

Casillas added that such an agreement could strengthen the dollar and hurt the peso.

“It’s probable that the Mexican currency will fall to 21.30 pesos to the dollar in the second half of 2020,” he said.

Source: El Financiero (sp)

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