Homicides increased slightly in October compared to September, breaking a three-month trend of declining murder numbers from one month to the next.

There were 2,866 intentional homicides last month, the National Public Security System reported on Wednesday, 38 more than the number recorded in September.

It is the first time that homicides have increased from one month to the next since the National Guard was deployed nationally at the start of July.

With 305 homicides, Guanajuato was the most violent state in the country in October followed by Baja California, Chihuahua, Michoacán and México state, where there were 235, 217, 215 and 196 cases, respectively.

Yucatán saw just one homicide while Baja California Sur, Querétaro, Tlaxcala and Campeche recorded 7, 9, 10 and 11 cases respectively.

Femicide numbers declined 29% from 93 cases in September to 66 in October.

There were 29,574 victims of homicide and femicide in the first 10 months of 2019, a 2.4% increase compared to the same period last year. An average of 97 people per day were killed between January and October.

In per capita terms, Colima has been the most violent state in Mexico this year, recording 70 homicide cases per 100,000 residents to the end of October.

Baja California was next with a per capita rate of 61.2 followed by Chihuahua, Morelos and Guanajuato with rates of 48.4, 37.5 and 36.5 respectively.

The national rate to the end of last month was 23.4 homicide cases per 100,000 residents, 0.3 higher than the same period last year. If the rate is maintained in November and December, 2019 will become the most violent year on record.

In sheer numbers, the five most violent states during the first 10 months of the year were Guanajuato, México state, Baja California, Chihuahua and Jalisco. Mexico City ranked eighth.

Combating insecurity remains the biggest challenge for the federal government, which is just 10 days shy of completing its first year in office.

A poll published last week showed that President López Obrador’s approval rating had fallen 10 points following a spike in cartel violence and that support for his security strategy had slumped 20 points since March to just over 30%.

There were 32,565 victims of homicide and femicide between December 2018, when López Obrador took office, and the end of last month. The figure is higher than those recorded in the same period at the start of the six-year term of the previous three presidents.

The incidence of a range of other crimes is also cause for concern. The number of extortion, kidnapping, home burglary, street robbery and domestic violence cases all increased in October compared to the month before.

Source: EFE (sp), Animal Político (sp), Milenio (sp), El Universal (sp)