Mexico’s latest employment figures were cheered by the government on Tuesday, with Labor Minister Marath Bolaños reporting that the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE) shows that 60.2 million people were employed in Mexico and 422,000 more jobs had been created during the first quarter this year than during Q1 2025. 

Also focusing on favorable figures, President Claudia Sheinbaum said more people were employed in March 2026 than in any previous March in Mexican history. 

Still, economists warned that a deeper dive into the data reveals some worrisome underlying trends. In fact, they say, the Mexican job market may actually be deteriorating. 

For example, while March 2026 employment may indeed have been historically high for March, the ENOE report revealed that fewer people held jobs this March than in February. Also, the economists point out, employment in the formal sector fell by 230,119 in Q1 2026, the worst drop since 2009.

Part of the good news/bad news confusion is caused by the definition of “actively employed population” (either holding a job or actively looking for one) used to calculate the job market data. Thus, if a person loses a job but continues to seek employment, the overall numbers don’t change, but the lost job is reflected in the “formal employment” data. 

The ENOE report revealed that 116,016 formal jobs were lost in March, which Sheinbaum acknowledged on Monday, attributing the drop to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to discontinue incentives for electric cars. This impacted the automotive sector in particular and the manufacturing sector in general, an especially disturbing trend for Mexico that has long leaned on its manufacturing prowess.

Furthermore, ENOE data shows 148,885 fewer people were employed in manufacturing industries last month as compared to March 2025. That’s a concern, no matter how high overall March employment was historically, since manufacturing serves as the cornerstone of the Mexican economy (21.4% of Mexico’s total GDP).

In his presentation on Tuesday, Bolaños said the services, restaurants and professional services sectors contributed an additional 240,000 jobs to make up for the losses in the manufacturing sector.

Economists were less sanguine about that fact, pointing out that 88% of the job losses recorded during Q1 2026 were in the formal sector, while employment in the informal sector increased to 33 million in March, up from 32.7 million in January.

Describing a shift towards more precarious or informal occupations, Janneth Quiroz, an analyst with Monex, told the newspaper El Economista, “[This] dilutes the positive impact that job creation could have in terms of income and consumption.”

With reports from Infobae, El Economista, Eje Central, La Jornada and México ¿cómo vamos?