Mexico contributed a record 15.9% of international trade to the United States between January and September, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Tuesday. 

The cumulative value of Mexican exports to the U.S. in the first three quarters of 2024 was nearly $378.9 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. Meanwhile, U.S. exports to Mexico totaled $253.4 billion, with a 4.2% year-on-year increase. 

Conversely, exports and imports from Canada — the U.S.’s other main trade partner — fell by 1.1% and 1.7%, respectively. China’s imports fell by 1.2% and its exports grew by a moderate 2%.  

From January to September, Mexico (15.9%) and Canada (14.4%) contributed almost a third (30.3%) of the total merchandise trade to the U.S., while China accounted for 10.8%.  

Mexico overtook China as the U.S.’s largest trade partner at the beginning of 2023 for the first time in two decades. Revenue from Mexico’s exports to the U.S. totaled just over $593 billion last year. In 2024, Mexico is also on track to have a record-breaking year for export revenue.

“In 1988 [the export level] was 5%, it’s multiplied by approximately three,” Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard told a business forum in Monterrey, Nuevo León, on Oct. 8. 

Tariff Talk. A promise of 60% tariffs on China and 20% on everyone else would be a big deal. @BBG estimates that 90% of China’s exports to the US would be crushed. The hit to Mexico and Canada would be >50%. pic.twitter.com/pg5ggEvCq5

— Longbow (@myLongbow) November 5, 2024

However, things could soon change depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. On Monday, Trump threatened an “immediate” tariff of 25% on all Mexican exports. The Republican candidate also threatened to impose a tariff as high as is necessary to stop companies importing cars made in Mexico.  

As reported by Bloomberg, in a note published on Oct. 29, Morgan Stanley strategists wrote that if Kamala Harris comes into power, there will be “a wider array of potential outcomes with regard to the US-Mexico relationship and trade” due to the Democratic candidate’s lack of specifics on bilateral trade policy. 

The next U.S. president is expected to have a significant influence on trade between Mexico, Canada and the U.S., as the USMCA free trade agreement will be up for review in 2026. The three powers will decide whether to extend the agreement for an additional 16 years.  

Trump has emphasized his quest for a “better deal,” while Harris said the USMCA is “not sufficient” in terms of workers’ rights and the environment, according to reports from Bloomberg. 

With reports from El Economista and Bloomberg