Friday, November 8, 2024

Sheinbaum’s security strategy: More social spending … and more military?

Is President Sheinbaum’s new federal government forsaking the “not bullets” component of the so-called “hugs, not bullets” security strategy pursued by the administration of former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)?

In a report published on Thursday, the Associated Press said that “a string of bloody confrontations” during the first month of President Claudia Sheinbaum’s six-year term “suggests the government is quietly abandoning the ‘no bullets’ part of that strategy and is much more willing to use the full force of the military and the militarized National Guard.”

Before we look at the alleged evidence that the Sheinbaum administration is moving away from the security strategy championed by AMLO, let’s first take a step back.

What is (or was) the ‘Hugs, not bullets’ strategy?

In a nutshell, the “hugs, not bullets,” or “abrazos, no balazos,” strategy is an approach to public security in which addressing the root causes of crime through government social programs is favored over combating criminal groups with force.

The previous government poured huge amounts of money into social programs, including employment schemes that aim to provide work opportunities to disadvantaged young people who might otherwise be tempted to join the ranks of criminal groups.

In support of the “no bullets” aspect of the strategy, López Obrador directed federal security forces to avoid violent confrontations with cartels whenever possible, although clashes still occurred.

President López Obrador walks with the directors of Sedena and Semar during the Independence Day military parade on September 16, 2024.
López Obrador gave more power to the military, but directed it to avoid direct confrontations with cartels where possible. (Presidencia/Cuartoscuro)

The previous president drew significant criticism in 2022 when he said that by avoiding confrontations, “We look after the members of the armed forces … but we also look after the members of the gangs.”

The Sheinbaum administration presented its national security strategy a month ago, and one of its four core tenets is attention to the root causes of crime, i.e. the “hugs” component of AMLO’s approach. The government is maintaining all existing social programs, and adding new ones, as part of its strategy to reduce crime.

What about the ‘not bullets’ part?

The “bloody confrontations” AP referred to in its report are the following:

Does the use of force by federal security forces in the incidents outlined above provide evidence that the government is abandoning the “not bullets” part of AMLO’s security strategy?

“There are traces of a change in tone toward organized crime, but it’s too early to call,” Falko Ernst, a security analyst, told AP.

“It seems unlikely that the Sheinbaum administration would risk a politically inconvenient, steady stream of violent imagery by betting on wholesale balazos [bullets]-only strategy,” he said.

López Obrador argues that the National Guard needs to be under the control of the military to prevent corruption and guarantee the force’s professionalism.
The new administration may be more willing to confront “the most overt” power displays by criminal organizations. (Margarito Pérez Retana/Cuartoscuro)

However, Ernst added that the government may be more willing to confront “the most overt and brazen displays of power” by criminal organizations.

David Saucedo, another security analyst, has a different view.

“The hugs not bullets strategy ended some time ago,” he told AP.

The Associated Press reported that Saucedo pointed to “an increased number of high-level drug arrests and extraditions of suspects” to support his claim.

“The U.S. government pressured Andrés Manuel López Obrador to resume the capture of high-level drug lords,” Saucedo said.

During the López Obrador administration, federal security forces did manage to finally capture Ovidio Guzmán, one of the sons of convicted drug trafficker Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, after releasing him to avoid a bloodbath amid a violent Sinaloa Cartel response in 2019. However, they had no involvement in the arrest of the highest-level drug lord to be detained in recent years — Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada.

Presenting the government’s new security strategy last month, Security Minister Omar García Harfuch said the neutralization of “generators of violence and criminal networks” was an objective, but he didn’t say security forces were prepared to use a heavier hand to achieve it.

Instead, he emphasized the importance of other crime-fighting tools, such as intelligence.

What has Sheinbaum said about her government’s security strategy?

Although her government is perpetuating virtually all of AMLO’s policies as it seeks to build the “second story” of the so-called “fourth transformation” of Mexico, Sheinbaum “has studiously avoided using the ‘hugs, not bullets’ slogan popularized by her predecessor and mentor,” AP reported.

However, she has said on repeated occasions that her government won’t pursue the kind of militarized “war” against drug cartels that former president Felipe Calderón launched shortly after he took office in December 2006.

“Calderón’s war against narcos won’t return,” Sheinbaum said last month.

Those remarks appear to indicate that she doesn’t have any great appetite for increasing the use of force against criminal groups.

Military convoy in Culiacán, Sinaloa
Sheinbaum spoke of the risks of using “firepower” to quell cartel infighting in Culiacán, though more than 1000 troops have been sent to the region in recent months. (Cuartoscuro)

In addition, shortly before she was sworn in as president, Sheinbaum said that responding to the high levels of violence in Sinaloa with “firepower” would only trigger a “war” in the northern state, where rival factions of the Sinaloa Cartel are engaged in a battle that has claimed scores of lives in recent months.

After García outlined the national security strategy on Oct. 8, Sheinbaum declared that her government wasn’t seeking to carry out “extrajudicial executions,” and would use “prevention, intelligence and presence” of security forces to combat crime.

While she avoids using the “hugs, not bullets” slogan, it would appear unlikely that the president and commander in chief of Mexico’s armed forces would agree with claims that her government, in its first month in office, has shown it is prepared to use more force than its predecessor to combat the country’s notorious cartels.

A fuller picture of the government’s security strategy, and the extent to which it is prepared to use military and National Guard firepower to respond to Mexico’s many and varied security challenges, will only truly emerge in the months and years ahead.

With reports from AP

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