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Morena is the favorite among Mexico's three leading parties. Morena is the favorite among Mexico's three leading parties.

Support for president’s Morena party at 39%, up 20 points since May

11% said they would vote for the National Action Party, 10% for the Institutional Revolutionary Party

Mexico is in the midst of a dual health and economic crisis but support for the nation’s ruling party nevertheless increased significantly between May and September, according to a new poll.

Conducted by the newspaper El Financiero, the poll found that 39% of respondents intend to vote for Morena at the 2021 midterm elections, a 20-point spike compared to May.

Support for Morena, which was founded by President López Obrador, rose seven points between August and September alone.

The percentage of respondents who intend to vote for Morena at the elections, at which the entire lower house of Congress will be renewed, is more than triple the number who plan to vote for the main opposition parties.

Just 11% of those polled told El Financiero they intend to vote for the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and 10% said they will cast their ballot for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Support for both the PAN and the PRI has remained more or less stable in recent months.

Voter intent since December 2018.
Voter intent since December 2018. Orange is Morena, blue is the National Action Party and red is the Institutional Revolutionary Party. Undecided are indicated in black. el financiero

The poll, which surveyed 1,210 people across the country in September, also found that 31% of respondents don’t know who they will vote for or don’t intend to vote. That figure declined from 59% in March and 48% in May.

El Financiero said that if the election were held today, Morena would win a clear majority in the lower house of Congress.

The newspaper said the growth in support for the party could be linked to the increase in López Obrador’s approval rating, which rose from 56% in June to 62% in September, as well as a change in people’s perceptions about their personal economic and employment situations.

El Financiero found in April – the first full month of the suspension of all nonessential economic activities due to the coronavirus pandemic – that 53% of respondents believed that their personal economic situation was bad or very bad.

The percentage of those polled who said that they were struggling financially remained at or just below 50% in May, June and July but dropped to 43% in August and 41% in September.

Asked about their current work situation and prospects, 36% of poll respondents said that they were bad or very bad in September compared to 50% in April and 47% in June.

The president's approval rating is shown in blue; Morena party support in red.
The president’s approval rating is shown in blue; Morena party support in red. el financiero

The percentage of respondents who said that a member of their family had lost their job or source of income in the past three months was 25% in September compared to 35% in June and 30% in July and August.

As for the national economy – which shrank almost 20% in the second quarter – 61% of those polled said that it was in bad or very bad shape whereas 70% said the same in July.

The economy and security are certain to be major issues at the midterm elections.

Mexico is set to record its worst recession since the Great Depression this year, the Covid-19 death toll (82,348 as of Tuesday)  continues to rise and 2020 is on track to be the most violent year on record.

Yet the percentage of people with a favorable view of Morena is on the rise.

The El Financiero poll found that 48% of respondents have a positive opinion of the ruling party, a 17-point increase compared to March.

In contrast, only 18% of those polled have a favorable view of the PAN and just 12% of respondents see the PRI in a positive light.

Source: El Financiero (sp)

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