Surprise economic contraction: 0.2% decline in first-quarter growth

The first quarter got off to the worst start economically in the last 10 years.

The economy contracted 0.2% compared with the previous quarter, when gross domestic product grew 0.2%.

The preliminary figures were released today by the national statistics agency, which said annual growth in the period was up 1.3% compared to a year earlier.

The results will come as a surprise to analysts at at least four financial institutions who predicted yesterday that GDP growth would be as little as 1.1% and as high as 1.6%.

The first-quarter decline was caused largely by a deceleration in services and manufacturing.

The January fuel shortage and strikes in Tamaulipas might have been a factor as well.

The quarter compares poorly with the first three months in the terms of the last three presidents. In the government of Enrique Peña Nieto the economy saw annual growth of 2.7%, for Felipe Calderón it was 2.2% and for Vicente Fox, 1.8%.

The Finance Secretariat is forecasting annual growth between 1.1% and 2.1% this year, although President López Obrador is more optimistic and predicts 2%.

Source: Milenio (sp), Bloomberg (en), El Financiero (sp), El Economista (sp)

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Manzanillo, Colima, México, 13 de marzo de 2026. La doctora Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, presidenta Constitucional de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos en conferencia de prensa matutina, “Conferencia del Pueblo” desde Colima. La acompañan Indira Vizcaíno Silva, gobernadora Constitucional del Estado de Colima; Omar García Harfuch, secretario de Seguridad y Protección Ciudadana (SSPC); Raymundo Pedro Morales Ángeles, secretario de Marina (Semar); Bulmaro Juárez Pérez, divulgador de lenguas originarias, presentador de la sección “Suave Patria”; Ricardo Trevilla Trejo, secretario de la Defensa Nacional (Sedena); Jesús Antonio Esteva Medina, secretario de Infraestructura, Comunicaciones y Transportes; Bryant Alejandro García Ramírez, fiscal general del Estado de Colima; Fabián Ricardo Gómez Calcáneo; Rocío Bárcena Molina, subsecretaria de Desarrollo Democrático, Participación Social y Asuntos Religiosos de la Secretaría de Gobernación; Efraín Morales López, director general de la Comisión Nacional del Agua (Conagua); Marcela Figueroa Franco, secretaria ejecutiva del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SESNSP) y Guillermo Briseño Lobera, comandante de la Guardia Nacional (GN). Foto: Saúl López / Presidencia

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