Poised to become the first Pacific hurricane of the 2024 season, Tropical Storm Carlotta has veered away from the Mexican coast but is still expected to bring rains to western coastal states, from Jalisco to Baja California Sur.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a public advisory on Thursday morning noting that Carlotta was expected to become a hurricane by Thursday night or Friday morning but since the storm was moving west-northwest — away from Mexico — neither coastal watches nor coastal warnings were issued.

The NHC projected that Carlotta would turn west on Friday and continue westward through the weekend.

Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN) reported on Thursday morning on its social media account that Carlotta was 635 km south of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, and 735 km west-southwest of Manzanillo, Colima, at 9 a.m. The storm was gradually intensifying and moving at approximately 19 km/h, the SMN added.

The SMN post said outer bands of the tropical storm would bring heavy rains to the Jalisco coast (50 to 75 mm) on Thursday, and would also drench the states of Michoacán, Colima, Nayarit and Baja California Sur with about 25 to 50 mm of rainfall.

The SMN warned that the rain could be accompanied by electrical storms and hail.

The SMN issued flood warnings for the states mentioned and warned the public to be on the watch for mudslides and avoid fast-moving streams and rivers.

Boaters were also advised to exercise extreme caution and residents of the five states directly impacted were told to heed instructions issued by local Civil Protection authorities.

Both the NHC and SMN advised that Carlotta’s winds would generate swells that will affect the coasts of west-central mainland Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula beginning later Thursday.

These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend, the NHC warned, particularly in Baja California Sur where waves could potentially exceed 2 meters.

The Pacific hurricane season has gotten off to a slow start (Tropical Storm Aletta formed on July 4, the latest date for a first tropical storm there), but weather forecast service Meteored reports that warming ocean temperatures and an increase in the Madden-Julian oscillation is likely to produce potent tropical storms this month.

With reports from AP, Informador.mx and Meteored