Anyone who has ever taken an economics class knows that the two basic factors of production are labor and capital. So, unless robots suddenly take over the planet, we need to talk about people — and we need to do it seriously. In my previous two texts, I wrote about Trump’s policy guardrails and about China. This time, I’ll focus on what may be the most essential element of the U.S.-Mexico relationship: its people.
Before getting into politics and economics, it’s worth grounding the conversation in a simple demographic fact. Today, more than 20% of the U.S. population is Hispanic, and over 70% of that group is of Mexican origin. This isn’t an abstract statistic — it’s a structural feature of American society, visible across large parts of the country and primarily concentrated in the Southwest.
With that context in mind, the United States is home to the largest Mexican diaspora in the world, but what we often forget is that Mexico is also home to more Americans than any other country outside the U.S. That alone has important political implications. Three U.S. states — New Mexico, California and Texas — are already majority Latino.
Let me repeat that: the majority of voters in those states, more than any other group (including white Americans), are Latino.
And not coincidentally, Texas and California are the two states with the greatest weight in the Electoral College. Several others are following the same path. In the coming years, states like Arizona, Nevada and Florida — among others — are likely to reach a similar tipping point.
Beyond citizenship and identity, there’s also the labor market reality.
Mexico is the number one country in terms of work visas issued by the United States, followed by China. This matters because the U.S. labor market is structurally constrained. A quick look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics — specifically the ratio of unemployed workers to job openings — tells a very clear story: for the past seven years (excluding a brief moment during the pandemic), the U.S. has consistently had more job openings than unemployed people. This isn’t rocket science. If the United States wants to grow, reindustrialize and compete, it needs people.
Here’s where demographics become impossible to ignore. China, the United States and Mexico are entering very different phases — and that divergence matters. China has already passed its population peak and is experiencing a sharp decline in birth rates, which will steadily shrink its working-age population. The United States is aging too: Baby Boomers and Gen Xers are retiring faster than younger generations are entering the labor force, resulting in a net reduction of roughly 450,000 workers per year (take a moment to let that sink in).
Mexico, by contrast, is at a demographic moment similar to China’s about thirty years ago, with a still-growing and relatively young working-age population. This makes Mexico’s labor force a natural complement to the U.S. economy — not as a substitute, but as a strategic extension of North America’s productive capacity. Quick clarification: I’m not necessarily arguing for increased migration flows. Having everybody working within their territory, but with a sense of collaboration and complementarity, works.
With a population that is, on average, eight years younger than that of the United States, and a workforce that has spent the past three decades training in high-end manufacturing, Mexico has a clear opportunity to enable — not replace, not outsource — the reindustrialization of the region. Add to that the deep social, cultural and political ties between our two countries, and the conclusion becomes hard to ignore.
If we choose to see each other as partners in growth, the path forward is clear.
We need bridges, not walls.
Pedro Casas Alatriste is the Executive Vice President and CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico (AmCham). Previously, he has been the Director of Research and Public Policy at the US-Mexico Foundation in Washington, D.C. and the Coordinator of International Affairs at the Business Coordinating Council (CCE). He has also served as a consultant to the Inter-American Development Bank.
