Just a few months ago, it seemed nearly impossible to imagine that the Trump administration would hit Mexico with tariffs. Now, every day that Mexico largely avoids them brings a sigh of relief. At this point, Moody’s Analytics estimates that the effective U.S. tariff rate on Mexican goods is 13.5%, significantly higher than just a few months ago, but still relatively low compared to other countries. So how is it that Mexico has thus far been able to largely avoid the heavy blows of tariffs hitting so many other countries? How can it be that on the same day that Trump increased tariffs on Canada and reconfirmed them on nearly every other country in the world, Mexico yet again largely succeeded in dodging the bullet? These are important questions to analyze in order to predict what might happen going forward.
I first highlighted the “Claudia Sheinbaum case study” shortly after she was elected. I argued that she would be one of the most interesting and fascinating leadership case studies anywhere in the world to follow over the next few years. Making history by becoming the first female and first Jewish president of Mexico, she has a huge weight on her shoulders. She inherited a nearly zero-growth economy, increasing debt loads, high inflation and a strong currency. She has had to make important funding decisions on her predecessors’ expensive pet projects like the Maya Train, the Dos Bocas oil refinery, and the rapidly growing federal Bienestar welfare program. Cartel violence under her predecessor continued unabated. On top of all of that, she has faced new leaders in both the U.S. and Canada — each with a mandate for change in their own countries.
The U.S. has clearly been on the offensive against Mexico. Trump and several of his officials have at times accused her administration of having “an intolerable alliance” with cartels, being afraid of the cartels, and being unwilling to do anything significant against them. ICE officials have rounded up Mexican citizens in the U.S. and sent them to detention centers — with some even being sent to a U.S. military base in the east African country of Djibouti or the “Alligator Alcatraz” detention center in Florida. The U.S. government recently passed a 1% tax on all cash remittances leaving the U.S., a measure that disproportionately affects Mexican families. The CIA has been conducting covert drone operations over Mexico to spy on cartels. In commerce, Mexico has been accused of ripping off the U.S. in everything from tomatoes to steel. U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem even accused Sheinbaum of “encouraging violent protests” in the U.S. and has aired provocative anti-migration ads on Mexican TV.
I believe that Sheinbaum and her team have been putting on a masterclass on how to work with the Trump team. They have been incredibly calm, patient, measured, mature and professional in the way they have managed the U.S. relationship in the face of such a barrage of insults, accusations and actions. Some highlights of how they have responded:
- Sheinbaum has been having phone calls nearly once a month directly with Trump.
- Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard has been in Washington every few weeks since Trump was elected to meet with U.S. trade and commerce officials.
- Sheinbaum’s administration has clearly attempted to avoid direct confrontation when Trump administration officials have (frequently) harshly criticized Mexico. They have responded to threats and criticisms with facts and data in the daily press briefings.
- Business organizations like the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico and American Society of Mexico have supported her administration by diligently and tirelessly emphasizing the strategic benefits of the U.S.-Mexico relationship: the two countries’ co-production system, the significant value add created by goods made by the U.S. and Mexico, the interconnected supply chains, etc.
- Sheinbaum has emphasized the steps her government has taken to reduce fentanyl trafficking to the U.S., help stem the flow of immigrants at the border and crack down on cartel activity. Her administration has deployed 10,000 troops to the border, sent 29 cartel leaders to the U.S. for trial and dismanteled or destroyed more than 1,000 drug labs. She has also repeatedly emphasized how the U.S. has an important shared role in solving each of these problems.
- Her administration has looked to strengthen direct ties with other countries like Canada and Brazil without expressly suggesting that it is in response to threats from the U.S.
- Her team has taken steps to curb the flow of Chinese investments and goods into the country — raising tax rates on small-value packages from Shein and Temu, not encouraging investment of Chinese auto suppliers given the sensitivity of the U.S. administration, and cracking down on Chinese counterfeit goods.
Trump in return has not taken action against Mexico to the extent that he has against Canada, Brazil or countless other countries. He recently called out Canada’s lack of progress in stemming the fentanyl trade as justification for increased tariffs, yet significantly more fentanyl comes from Mexico. He doesn’t seem concerned that inflation will increase as a result of placing tariffs on top trade partners. So why is he ultimately treating Mexico less harshly on tariffs than other countries?
My sense is that Sheinbaum has actually won Trump’s respect. She has figured out how to appease him and give his administration what they want, while steering clear and not responding directly to their frequent insults and attacks. She has succeeded in explaining the challenges of quickly resolving cartel violence and drug trafficking while at the same time demonstrating some progress. Remarkably, she has been able to do this while still earning the trust of the Mexican people — evidenced by her most recent approval rating this past week of 80%.
Of course Trump could change his mind at any moment on literally any issue, but I think thus far Sheinbaum has done an exceptional job at steering her country in some very turbulent waters during some very tough times. That being said, she will have to continue to demonstrate her administration’s commitment and show progress on stopping the flow of drugs in order to continue to avoid tariffs in the future. I don’t agree with every domestic policy decision she has made, but I think she deserves a ton of credit and has my utmost respect thus far as Mexico’s leader.
Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for nearly 30 years.
Yep, credit and respect.
She’s 63 years old and has had to navigate a male-dominated world for most of her life. That gives her skills that many other leaders lack.
If you look at her Instagram feed in addition to the mananeras, you’ll see that she’s focusing heavily on the role of women in Mexican society. I wonder if that’s part of her 80% approval rating.
AND, culture. She’s a traditional singer-musician with an affinity for indigenous culture.
You’re absolutely right. She’s experienced misogyny and is so much smarter than trump could ever be. She knows how to deal with men like him. She’s clever and kind. She’s a great president.
I suggest 4 doses of Ivermectin in the morning and 4 doses in the evening for 5 days for your TDS – Trump Derangement Syndrome as far as your feminism, see a psychiatrist immediately.
As I have commented many times before: Presidenta Sheinbaum is the gift that keeps on giving!: 💯🇲🇽💯🇲🇽
She certainly is!
She is a true gift to Mexico. A smart classy lady with cajones
It’s too early to declare a victory over Trump. Mexico is in the middle of a negotiation extension and Trump is demanding that the cartels be confronted and eliminated. Claudia can’t even admit cartels exist.
Just to be clear, I was in no way “declaring a victory over Trump”. I said she has been doing an outstanding job managing him and his administration.
Do you really think she is “managing” President Trump? I suggest she is managing her own administration with respect to geopolitical issues and events. Two different things. With that said, I agree, she is doing a good job in some turbulent times.
Trump cannot admit that reality exists.
Trump is a businessman and a very successful businessman. You can not accomplish this without a hard sense of REALITY. What International businesses has SHE RAN?
What I find fascinating is less than 10% of the fentanyl coming into the United States crossed the border between Mexico and the United States, most comes in from container ships where very few are inspected. You won’t stop the trafficking until you stop the demand, Stop buying it!!!
Claudia has and is doing a number in the political world that shines beyond her illustrative background with a proven track record. Sheinbaum means beautiful tree and seems fitting. It will be interesting to track her progress.
The surname Sheinbaum has Jewish origins, specifically Ashkenazi Jewish. It’s believed to be a variant of the German surname “Schönbaum” or “Schoenbaum,” as you stated, meaning “beautiful tree.”
And, unlike the mispronunciation in Mexico, this german name is pronounced “Shine-balm”.
Interesting…many of the locals I know are becoming increasingly disillusioned with her for her perceived relationship with the cartels.
You must be talking with the 20%.
….she just shipped 26 cartel members up to The Donald… they won’t be having a fun time drinking Patron. And I don’t think the bad apples in the politial class will get a pass from her either.
I concur. My sense is that there is an understanding on how to contain the cartel problem mindful that the U.S.A. has throughout its history and colonial gestation been inundated with organized/legalized crime (one of my ancestors was a major privateer during the Revolution). Cartels have degenerated out of control pushing toxic fentanyl onto the drug-user class, rather than catering to a preexisting demand, and militarizing so as to beg for extermination.
I think she is to be respected. She is firm and trying to keep it all in balance.
Just to be clear, as a US citizen and resident of Mexico, I support Claudia Scheinbaum. But I would like to see her and Mexico join forces with Mark Carney and Canada in a united front to avoid bending the knee to Trump. Together, they could do the civilized world a big favor by punching the bully in the face, while remembering that not all citizens of the US are of the MAGA cult. Millions of US citizens are sane and law abiding and find the trade war of our renegade government abhorrent and cruel to our beloved neighbors to the south and the north.
i Absolutely concur with your recommendation , and dont forget South America which is a sleeping giant.
Why is it though that ALL of my upper middle class acquaintances here in Mexico, do not like or trust her? They ALL believe that she is just a continuation of AMLO and her predecessor’s appeasement of the cartels and is not doing anything serious to combat corruption? She seems great to me, but I’m just a guest here. Why don’t the upper classes trust her?
Honey Bernstein –
Thanks for sharing what you hear. I would say that I hear the exact same arguments from upper middle class Mexicans every day. Literally the exact same lines over and over. I will try to find a way to delicately write about this. Not sure Mexicans want to hear a gringo trying to explain why he thinks they are misinformed in their analysis of local politics, but I will try and answer your very great question in an article soon.
They aren’t misinformed.
I hear the same thing from my Mexican friends, and while I disagree, as I think she is doing an incredible job for the Mexicans that overwhelmingly support her. I totally agree with the last statement that largely she is doing a terrific job in managing a very difficult Trump administration.
Travis…I think there are many reasons that upper middle Mexicans are not happy with Morena. Misinformation/propaganda is one, but also bias, class prejudice, an historical political orientation, party loyalty, unwillingness to help the less fortunate, etc, etc.
The creation of a strong Mexican Middle Class will be fought by the few that control most of the wealth.
Perhaps all this praise is at least premature, MORENA in any form is more corrupt than the PRI and all other parties combined (to include that many now are former members taking advantage of unbridle corruption).
Claudia is president only becuase she is AMLO continued and with all the dictatorial changes in Mexico there is no suprise she was elected. Then, being the first woman president and jewish is to be noted and praised in principle, does not change the fact of who really calls the shots.
As to the praise you bestow on her for her ‘handling of Trump’, there is more good will on the part of Trump who understands that Mexico is the US most important ally (as clearly stated by Ambassador Johnson in his speech at the American Society event recently-and an event you did not seem important to report on).
Mexico is a great country with more pluses that what you publsh here. But, many ugly sides that take the luster away. These last can be dealt with, it requires real political will to tackle head on. If Claudia has the will to break away from AMLO (as Lazaro Cardenas did with Plutarco Elias Calles) and work for Mexico, to include work closely with Trump (no matter who likes him or not) with time and effort life will be better for both nations and our peoples
Everything/everyone Trump touches wilts and dies. Just history.
May upper-class Mexicans exploit just like the USA billionaires. The difference is Mexico’s aristocracy have been doing so for 6 centuries. They are more practiced at it and even had the church as part of their exploitation strategy, providing after life as justification for their present suffering, a form of delayed gratification.
Claudia is doing a masterful.job managing Trumpy! Regardless of what MX upper class thinks, no one has done better. In MX, there is such an undercurrent of mistrust at all levels of society. Particularly with her level of popularity, to be able to be manhandled by the jealous upper class and an idiot untrustworthy American buffoon and still be standing with her chin up is a tribute to a classy smart lady.
Agree wholeheartedly.
Not interested in how Sheinbaum kisses up to that piece of dung and his entire govt. More respect for Colombia and Brazils government. It is time to resort to the last solution for a government that seeks to enslave the people of my nation. Viva Palestine, China and peoples revolutions everywhere.
President Claudia may well be the most effective, brilliant, practical and reasonable World Leader in a world wide Mess.
So far, President Claudia has been calm and strategic, firm but flexible.
She is the Best Example current Leadership the World has.
VIVA Claudia y VIVA Mexico!
From an extranjero perspective, La Presidenta seems to be managing Trump with tact and strength, perhaps largely due to their disparate IQs and her perceived lack of confounding psychopathologies. However, I believe this is an issue of the glass being half full or half empty.
The 80% that support her feel it’s half full; the 20%, half empty. The 80% perhaps base their support on what we all see in the media and, generally, on the surface. The 20% may be rightfully skeptical, instead evaluating the country’s deeper politics and history of corruption. On one hand, she’s doing some fantastic things for Mexicans and their country. On the other hand, she certainly has some giant obstacles to overcome, the processes for which require bold negotiations and actions, many of which must undoubtedly occur behind the scenes.
I tend to err on the side of optimism. I see videos—admittedly, the stuff on the surface—of her connecting with the people, and I read the news on her progressive initiatives. These media make me proud to be in Mexico and to observe a leader whose charisma truly appears genuine—genuine enough that she has the support of 80% of her people. It also makes me embarrassed for my home country, where the leader’s twisted charisma only appeals to 40% of the people.
The cartels and corruption in the Mexican government have existed here for a long time, and they will persist. She cannot eliminate them during her term(s). But if she can manage them the way she appears to manage Trump, I believe she will make progress that supports the Mexican people and their country.
Well she’s doing a great job compared to my Canadian Prime Minister Carney
Darrell, one thing you may not know is that Trump is not comfortable in dealing with strong women. and Claudia is at the top of her class. Canada woulda fared far better with him had the Libs elected a woman as party leader… but instead we got a banker… I know that seems sexist, but wth Trump, it’s the nature of the beast… Melania has more influance over than the Donald than you might think…and I think increasingly so.
She had six years’ practice with her previous boss!
OMG I love this woman. She is a true class act. Just the total opposite of the childishness of trump
He is such a childish person. If he wasn’t destroying the United States he would be the joker of all jokers.
I am afraid to think about what the USA is going to be when he is finished his destruction
I should print this page just for the comments.
When y’all finally realize that She is cooperating fully with Trump y’all going to blow a TDS fuse.
jajaja
Sheinbaum is the rare combination of beauty. brains and skills.