Pork exports to China are predicted to double this year due to that country’s problems with African swine fever (ASF) and the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.
Mexico sent 30,072 tonnes of pork to the East Asian economic powerhouse in 2019, making China the second biggest buyer of the meat after Japan.
The president of the Mexican Meat Council (Comecarne) believes that exports this year will exceed 60,000 tonnes, which would make China the No. 1 market for Mexican pig farmers.
Speaking after she was sworn in as Comecarne chief for a fourth consecutive year, Carla Suárez Flores said that pork exports to China increased a whopping 929% in January to 4,076 tonnes. In the same month last, Mexico sent just 396 tonnes of the meat to China.
Between 2016 and 2019, Mexican pork exports to China increased 6,300%, she said.
Suárez explained that all of Mexico’s pork exports to China are sent by just eight meat packing plants that have been certified by Chinese health authorities.
A further 42 plants are awaiting certification, which is expected to occur in coming months, she said. Their certification “will undoubtedly allow a greater presence of Mexican products in China,” Suárez added.
She highlighted that ASF, foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza are not present in Mexico, which gives countries importing Mexican meat confidence that they are receiving a healthy product.
It is estimated that China lost between 30% and 40% of its total pork production last year due to ASF. The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus is also having an impact on production, creating an opportunity for Mexico to boost exports.
“We’re going for more,” the Comecarne chief declared.
According to data from the Mexican Meat Council, Mexico exported 15,582 tonnes of pork last month. Japan was the biggest buyer, receiving 59% of total exports, followed by China, which bought 26%.
The third and fourth biggest buyers of Mexican pork in January were the United States and South Korea, respectively.
Cancún saw a rebound in tourism from the United States in January in comparison to the same month in 2019, according to Quintana Roo Tourism Minister Marisol Vanegas Pérez.
She said that the Cancún International Airport reported an increase of 4.1% in the total number of passengers served, rising from 2.2 million in January 2019 to 2.3 million last month.
And the trend is expected to continue as the year goes on. Vanegas said that 6.5-7 million airplane seats will be available to passengers flying to Cancún in the first half of 2020.
She said that many companies reduced the number of flights to Cancún in the last two years as they renovated their fleets of planes. Last month’s growth is a product of the recent increase in routes to the Caribbean coast of Mexico.
Quintana Roo Governor Carlos Joaquín said that the rebound is not only in tourism from the United States. The state saw a 3.9% year-over-year increase in all international visitors in January, from 1.5 million in 2019 to 1.6 million this year.
The number of domestic visitors grew 4.4% in that period, from 674,760 in January 2019 to 704,340 last month.
He added that seven of every 10 visitors that arrive at the Cancún airport are international tourists, mostly from the United States and Canada, markets that state authorities say will be very important to the rebound in tourism to the region expected for this year.
The Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) has offered to reinstate generous retirement conditions for workers as long as their union agrees not to interfere in the management of the state-run company.
During negotiations to reach a new collective agreement, CFE director Manuel Bartlett presented an offer to bring back the retirement scheme that existed prior to 2016, under which male workers could retire with full pensions at the age of 55 if they had completed 25 years of service and at any age if they had completed 30 years.
Male workers currently have to complete 30 years of service and reach the age of 65, or 40 years of service without any age limit, in order to retire with full benefits.
Women could previously retire at any age with full benefits as long as they had completed 25 years of service whereas they now have to reach 30 years of service to retire at 60, or 35 years of service to retire at any age.
If the Electrical Workers Union of the Mexican Republic, or SUTERM, accepts Bartlett’s offer it will have to give up its spot on the CFE board, effectively allowing the federal government to have full control of the company.
In a letter to SUTERM general secretary Víctor Fuente del Villar, the CFE director made it clear that the “fundamental premise” of the offer is that the union must not intervene in the management of the public utility.
“[The CFE] must have an organization, management and structure that guarantee its technical and administrative autonomy in order to obtain the best results,” Bartlett wrote, adding that its internal decision-making bodies must have the freedom to act independently.
While having complete control of the CFE may look very attractive to the government, two experts warn that changing retirement conditions will come at a significant financial cost.
Carlos Ramírez, a consultant who formerly headed up the National Commission for the Pension System, told the newspaper El Economista that retirement reform at the CFE allowed the company to reduce its pension liabilities.
He said that returning to the scheme that existed before 2016 will increase costs for the federal government, which is responsible for paying the pensions of former CFE and Pemex workers.
If SUTERM takes up Bartlett’s offer and the retirement scheme reverts to what is was pre-2016, ratings agencies and CFE bondholders won’t be at all happy because the company will be financially weakened, Ramírez added.
Gerardo López, a pensions expert at the Panamerican University, said that going back to the old retirement scheme would not only hurt public finances but represent a “step backward” for the government.
“It’s a bad precedent that’s being set because when the decision was taken to modify the CFE pensions system, it was achieved through agreements with the workers and their unions in order to fix the faults of the previous system,” he said.
At the end of 2019, the CFE had pension liabilities of just under 159 billion pesos (US $8.2 billion), 56% higher than Pemex’s liabilities of 101.5 billion pesos.
In the face of Starbucks’ continued dominance among the country’s caffeine consumers, Mexico’s coffee shops are seeking new niche markets to stay a shot above the rest.
Firms like Café Punta del Cielo, The Italian Coffee Company, Finca Santa Veracruz and Cielito Querido Café have all felt the pinch from the Seattle, Washington-based global coffee conglomerate and have changed their business models to adapt.
“The arrival of Starbucks 15 years ago let loose a non-traditional dynamic for coffee consumption, it triggered a new way of approaching the idea, and there will still be spaces as each brand finds its own niche,” said Fernando Álvarez Kuri, vice-president of the consulting firm Kantar Mexico.
Operated by restaurant corporation Alsea, Starbucks has 746 units in Mexico, accounting for 51.9% of the country’s coffee shop market.
“The model that Starbucks has implemented is very successful, even though the market is more and more competitive, because it is very attractive in terms of profitability,” said Banorte analyst Valentín Mendoza.
That competition has driven other coffee shop operators to get creative.
Café Punta del Cielo, for instance, has linked up with corporations like Gayosso funeral homes, Aeroméxico and hospitals to consolidate clients.
“You have a better consumer there; people at corporations are much more practical with their consumption. You create a habit in them so that later they search out boutique products,” said the company in a statement.
The firm processes its own coffee at its plant in Puebla for consumption at its 149 locations in Mexico. This year it is hoping to improve prices and grow its presence on the shelves with products like coffee capsules and a new vanilla-flavored instant coffee.
With 390 sales points in Mexico, The Italian Coffee Company hit the road and found its niche on the country’s highways and in its home region of El Bajío, which comprises areas in the states of Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Querétaro, Guanajuato, San Luis Potosí and Zacatecas.
“You can have locations, but you have to be smart and find a way to differentiate yourself,” said Álvarez. “The Italian Coffee Company is very much a brand of El Bajío and the highways. It’s a very interesting niche.”
Starbucks competitor Café Punto del Cielo.
The company said that the competition created by Starbucks offered an opportunity to adapt.
“We find ourselves today in a market in constant movement, in which we try to adapt as efficiently as possible as a company,” it said.
Many of the over 170 cafés operated by Finca Santa Veracruz are in universities and corporate buildings, but in 2020 it plans to put its coffee on wheels to bring its product to new clients.
“We stopped developing the format of coffee carts because we moved to shopping center islands and large stores, but we like the format and we think we’ll start it up again and it will take off in a short amount of time,” said the company’s founder, José Navarro.
Designed and developed by Finca Santa Veracruz, the carts will be electric and self-sufficient, with enough charge to provide services for up to 10 hours.
The Cielito Querido Café brand is hoping that a change of ownership will be just what it needs to stay viable in the market. Mexican food giant Herdez recently bought its 78 cafés from ADO for 280 million pesos (US $14.5 million).
“Cielito was taken up by a company with undoubtedly more dimension, with a balance that allows it to be more aggressive in the rhythm of opening [new stores],” said Mendoza.
Álvarez said the brand’s success will depend on how the new owner presents it to the consumer.
Like other Catholic countries, Mexico has traditionally observed the “no meat on Fridays” rule during Lent, even though this practice has an ambivalent status. The prohibition on meat has usually meant that fish or other seafood is substituted, hardly a penance given the higher cost.
Indeed, such a substitution wasn’t practical for most Mexicans until the 20th century. For much of the country’s history, average Mexicans couldn’t even afford meat, let alone seafood. It was rare in the Mesoamerican diet and through the centuries a “rich person’s” food. That fact is reflected in the saying, Cuando hay pa’ carne, es vigilia — “When there is (money) for meat, it’s (time for) abstinence.” It means that poor people cannot enjoy the good things in life, either because of poverty or religion.
Besides, Mexico is much less religious now. The vast majority still do identify as Catholics, but observance is nowhere near as strict as it used to be. The most common practices now have cultural significance. For this reason, the avoidance of meat is not as mandatory as it once was. For example, many restaurants offer fish specialties during Lent, especially on Fridays, but the regular menu items are also offered and ordered.
Despite all this, meat consumption still goes down by 30% during this season, which is an important boost to Mexico’s seafood industry. Prices rise along with demand. Seafood restaurants benefit during Lent, especially in areas where people don’t have as much experience cooking fish.
The strict observance in the past gave rise to a number of traditions that can still be seen today. Celebrations related to Carnival (a time to use up the prohibited food items before Lent) and through Holy Week can still be seen, especially in more rural communities. One reason for this is that Lent coincides with the end of the dry season in Mexico, which for indigenous people has been a time of penance and reflection as well as rituals to ensure that the coming growing season will be good.
During Lent, fish sales go up while meat sales drop as much as 30%.
One obvious reason for at least a nominal observance of fish on Fridays is the fact that Mexico has 11,000 kilometers of coastline with four major commercial fishing areas: Sonora, Sinaloa, Baja California and Veracruz. Less obvious but also important is the production of freshwater fish. Mexico’s inland waters may not match those of the United States or Canada, but with the creation of reservoirs in the 20th century, fish became available in areas that did not have it before.
In fact, aquaculture arrived in Mexico as early as the late 19th century, when rainbow trout farms were started along the mountain streams of México state to raise the protein consumption of farmers. Such trout production remains important in the high altitudes of central Mexico.
Saltwater aquaculture came much later, in the 1980s, but today 53% of Mexico’s seafood is now produced at fish farms.
Such farming can now be found in 23 of the country’s 32 states, especially in Morelos, Nayarit, Jalisco, Veracruz and Yucatán. The most common species raised this way are tilapia, trout and shrimp, but tuna, oysters, catfish and sea bass are also cultivated.
Commercial fishing in open waters is still practiced and subject to varying regulations. However, many wildlife experts and chefs encourage responsible consumption of these products and respect for harvest seasons to allow populations to recover. Websites such as Pesca Con Futuro (in Spanish) give detailed information to help consumers make conscientious choices. During Lent, more than 100 species from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico are in season.
All seafood dishes are acceptable for Lent, but a number of prepared items, with and without fish, have become traditional for this season on both the national and regional levels.
Capirotada is a dessert often eaten on Good Friday.
One major regional variation and a throwback to the past is the popularity of preserved fish products and vegetarian options in the interior of Mexico. Even though fresh fish is far more available than it was in the past (especially in Mexico City which has the second-largest wholesale fish market in the world), traditional dishes are based on what could be had 100 or more years ago.
Preserved fish products include tuna, sardines, and dried fish — in particular, dried shrimp. One common dish is the torta de camarón seco (shrimp patties). It is enjoyed throughout inland Mexico, but there are regional variations. In the center of the country, the dish contains romeritos (seepweed), in the north it has egg and red salsa, and in Guanajuato it comes with nopal cactus.
Following in importance is the use of beans, either as the main protein source or as a way to stretch expensive fish. Fava beans and lentils appear in many areas. In the Sierra Tarahumara, chacales is a traditional soup made with corn and lentils and cooked in a pot underground. White beans are common in Oaxaca.
For those regions where they are historically consumed, insects are also acceptable for Lent. These include central Mexico and Oaxaca, where chapulines (grasshoppers) are popular year round. Some other items that are in season around Lent include escamoles (ant eggs) and in several southern states jumiles (beetles or stink bugs).
Freshwater fish features prominently in Lenten dishes in those few inland areas with significant production. Perhaps the most famous of these are the charales (neotropical silversides) of Lake Pátzcuaro, small sardine-like fishes that are eaten dried or fried. They can be prepared many ways, including simply on a tortilla with salsa.
Vegetarian dishes include tortas de papa (potato patties), tamales with cheese or vegetable fillings, stuffed chiles and vegetables such as quelites (the name for several varieties of leafy greens) and romeritos. Cheese is also acceptable to eat during Lent, though despite its availability, it doesn’t take a central role during this time. This may be because in the past dairy was also forbidden (along with alcohol).
One dish that truly seems to be consumed nationwide this time of year is capirotada. This is a dessert made with slices of stale bread that has been fried, then covered in a syrup made with piloncillo (sometimes agave), raisins and nuts, and finally sprinkled with cotija or other salty cheeses.
Banxico cited the coronavirus as a factor in its forecast.
The Bank of México cut its growth forecast for 2020 on Wednesday, citing weakness in the global economy, trade tensions and the outbreak of coronavirus as factors.
The central bank is now predicting GDP growth of between 0.5% and 1.5% this year, a 0.3% cut at both ends of the range compared to its previous forecast in November.
The downward revision came a day after the National Institute of Statistics and Geography announced that GDP contracted 0.1% in the fourth quarter of last year (it previously reported that growth was 0%) and confirmed that the economy shrank 0.1% across all of 2019.
“The revision for 2020 responds, in part, to a lower growth base to that previously expected,” the Bank of México (Banxico) said in its quarterly report for the October to December period of 2019.
“This outlook anticipates a more gradual recovery of domestic demand throughout the forecast horizon, in a context in which the global economy continues showing weakness and U.S. industrial production expectations have been revised downwards once again,” Banxico said.
The central bank said that global trade tensions, such as the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, are expected to have an impact on growth and investment in Mexico.
It also said that the outbreak of the coronavirus – which is now affecting large numbers of people in countries outside China, such as South Korea, Italy and Iran – could have a greater effect on growth than previously thought.
The recovery of the Mexican economy from last year’s recession – the first since the global financial crisis in 2009 – will likely take longer than previously expected due to persistent weakness in internal demand and a possible cut to the credit rating of state oil company Pemex, which already has a junk rating from Fitch.
The central bank also cut its growth forecast for 2021 albeit by a slightly more modest margin of 0.2%. The Bank of México sees an economic expansion in the range of 1.1% to 2.1% next year.
In addition, Banxico revised its expectation for job creation this year to between 440,000 and 540,000 new positions compared to a 500,000-600,000 range in its previous quarterly report. With regard to inflation, the bank is anticipating a 3.2% rate at the end of 2020 compared to a previous prediction of 3%.
Despite the central bank’s decreased optimism, Finance Minister Arturo Herrera said that the ministry he heads would not be moved into downgrading its 2020 growth outlook, which currently stands at 1.5-2.5%.
“We’re not going to lower it, we don’t depend on whether Banxico does it or not,” he said, explaining that the Finance Ministry (SHCP) uses its own models to predict growth and that any announcements about outlook revisions are made according to an established schedule.
Herrera said that the SHCP will present an economic policy document in April which could possibly include a revised growth forecast for 2020.
The minister told the news agency Bloomberg earlier this month that he was confident that the economy would bounce back this year, citing inflation and debt levels that are under control, the stability of the peso and Pemex’s halting of an extended production decline.
The SHCP’s current mean prediction of 2% growth this year, however, is about double that of most analysts and international organizations.
The International Monetary Fund is currently forecasting 1% growth in Mexico this year, while the World Bank sees GDP expanding by a slightly better 1.2%.
A cruise ship carrying a person with flu-like symptoms has been allowed to dock at Cozumel, Quintana Roo, after being denied access to the port on Wednesday.
The crew member is said to have a case of influenza A virus contracted in the Philippines, but fears of the coronavirus known as Covid-19 caused ports in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to deny the ship permission to dock.
The Meraviglia arrived off the coast of Cozumel around 9:30 p.m. on Wednesday and was denied permission to dock after a series of back-and-forth decisions by Mexican authorities.
Quintana Roo Governor Carlos Joaquín González announced the decision in a tweet just before 11:00 p.m. on Wednesday.
“If there is a health risk, there will be no authorization for disembarkation,” he tweeted.
The ship therefore spent the night anchored three kilometers offshore, but was finally allowed to dock around 7:00 a.m. on Thursday. Mexican health authorities boarded the ship to examine the patient.
Despite statements from Quintana Roo Health Minister Alejandra Aguirre Crespo that the case is not one of Covid-19, a group of about 10 people gathered at the wharf in Cozumel on Wednesday to demand that the ship not be allowed to dock out of fear of health risks.
The operator of the Meraviglia, MSC Cruises, expressed its disagreement with the decisions not to allow the ship to moor, claiming that they were made out of fear rather than empirical evidence.
“The crew member was diagnosed with the seasonal flu and is in stable condition. … As a precaution, he was isolated from other crew members and passengers from the moment he showed symptoms and will continue as such until he recovers completely. No other cases of influenza A have been reported aboard the MSC Meraviglia,” it said in a statement.
The cruise liner is carrying 4,500 passengers and 1,500 crew members. None have been allowed to disembark. Health experts are expected to report the results of their examinations at 2:00 p.m. on Thursday and decide whether to allow those aboard to come ashore.
President López Obrador told his Thursday morning press conference that the country’s ports would not be closed out of fear of the coronavirus, calling the move inhumane.
“If there is a case [of coronavirus], we’ll take care of it. We have information that the possibility does not exist. We cannot act in an inhumane way. There are protocols to carry out, but it’s not a case of ‘You can’t dock here.’ We cannot act like that,” he said.
He called the decision to treat the sick crew member “a matter of humanitarianism,” adding that “the regrettable truth is that there are attitudes of rejection.”
Deputy Health Minister López-Gatell: protocol is ready.
Deputy Health Minister Hugo López-Gatell announced Wednesday that the country has an emergency response protocol ready in the event that the coronavirus known as Covid-19 arrives in Mexico.
The health system has prepared 2,738 intensive care hospital beds and 6,175 medical ventilators to deal with a possible outbreak of the virus.
Hospitals operated by the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) will contribute 1,867 beds and 2,565 ventilators, while State Workers’ Social Security Institute (ISSSTE) hospitals will provide 551 beds and 3,064 ventilators.
The rest of the beds and breathing machines will be provided by Pemex hospitals and federal health institutes.
López-Gatell said that as many as 85% of potential cases of Covid-19 in Mexico will present only light symptoms that will be treatable at home with medical advice given over the telephone.
“A small percentage, 15%, could have serious symptoms … [such as] inflammation in the lungs, pneumonia … and an even smaller percentage — 3% — are going to require advanced attention in intensive care, and in Mexico we have over 157 specialized hospitals and over 2,500 second-class hospitals that have these types of respiratory support capabilities,” he said.
He said that the ability to treat non-severe cases at home and in rural areas will “avoid intra-hospital propagation [of the virus] and saturation of the facilities. They won’t require large-scale or major investments for their care. It would be symptomatic treatment to provide relief.”
His prognosis is that the virus will behave more or less like the seasonal flu that usually propagates in Mexico between October and March.
“It most likely won’t behave like a catastrophic disease,” he said.
Nevertheless, he emphasized that medical personnel are being trained to treat critical patients, protect themselves and reduce the probability of deaths.
The director of the Health Ministry’s epidemiology department, José Luis Alomía, said that the country’s health services have a strategic reserve of 145,000 disposable and biodegradable hospital gowns, 111,000 surgical face masks, 32,599 propene face masks and 42,729 high-tech respirators to protect health workers.
A lake in Hidalgo that is a key source of water for agriculture could dry up completely within a month, the National Water Commission (Conagua) has warned.
Located in the municipalities of Metztitlán and Eloxochitlán, the Laguna de Metztitlán has already lost 95% of its water due to drought and seepage.
Gregorio Badillo, head of ecology at the Metztitlán council, told the newspaper El Universal that a lack of rain last year and in the first two months of 2020 has had a severe impact on the lake.
The extremity of the situation came into sharp focus last week when local residents discovered thousands of dead fish. Badillo explained that 120 members of four cooperatives that farm fish in the lake had lost all of their stock — and with it their livelihoods.
The severe lack of water is also of serious concern to farmers in the region who source water from the lake for irrigation of crops such as beans and corn.
Marco Antonio Moreno Gaytán, an environmental activist and member of the Hidalgo Ecology Society, said that the situation is caused by drought linked to climate change. Rivers that feed into the Laguna de Metztitlán have also dried up, he said.
“This is painful. … It’s not just fish that are being lost but a lot of biodiversity. … We thought that it [the lake] was never going to disappear but this is now a severe blow for all the ecosystems and agricultural activity,” Moreno said.
While shimmering water formerly extended across the lake’s 581 hectares, after prolonged drought farm animals can now graze and motorbikes can ride over the vast majority of the desiccated lakebed.
During a visit to the lake Monday, Conagua officials predicted that the Laguna de Metztitlán will lose its remaining water in a month, if not before.
The officials said that while 200 to 300 liters of water continue to flow into the lake per second, greater quantities of water are being lost due to percolation, or seepage. Water now covers no more than 30 hectares, or 5%, of the lakebed, they said.
Hidalgo Agriculture Secretary Carlos Muñiz Rodríguez acknowledged that the situation is “very critical” but explained that authorities remain hopeful that the lake will recover. However, he pointed out that the forecast for this year is not promising.
“We had the worst drought last year, not just in Hidalgo but across the entire country; only three states didn’t have the problem and according to Conagua, the drought will extend this year,” Muñiz said.
A busload of seniors from Michoacán en route to visit their families in 2018 as part of the Messenger Pigeons program.
The Michoacán government is on the verge of distributing travel visa No. 10,000 in a 3-year-old program that reunites residents of that state with their family members in the United States.
Governor Silvano Aureoles told a press conference this week that the Palomas Mensajeras (Messenger Pigeons) program – a collaboration between Michoacán authorities and the U.S. Department of State – has benefited people in 95 of the state’s municipalities and that the aim is to reach residents of all 113 municipalities.
Under the program, the government covers visa and travel expenses so that mainly older adults can visit the United States to see their children, who migrated to the U.S. as long as 30 years ago but remain undocumented there. In some cases, the beneficiaries of the scheme have the opportunity to meet their grandchildren face-to-face for the first time ever.
“We are close to reaching visa number 10,000. It’s so important that the link with family members not be broken,” Aureoles said.
The governor said that 70% of the beneficiaries of the Palomas Mensajeras scheme have been women and that 30% of the total have come from indigenous communities.
“We’re talking about one of the most humanistic programs of the state government because it unites families, it allows them to meet again,” Aureoles said.
Imelda Gil, a beneficiary of the program in 2019, told the broadcaster CGTN that being able to travel to the United States to see her daughter who left Michoacán 20 years ago was “a dream come true.”
Reunited with her mother in the U.S., Isabel Gil said that “it’s been very hard being apart.”
“I’ve had three kids here and I don’t have my mother with me so it’s been very hard. Our family events and traditional celebrations all take place away from my homeland. … I was longing to see my mother. I’d like many other people to experience this. Few people get the opportunity to see their parents again, it’s wonderful,” she said.
Back in Michoacán, Aureoles pointed out that migration to the United States has been occurring for some 150 years.
“It’s not a recent thing,” he said, adding that numbers spiked during World War II when the United States invited Mexicans to work there because its workforce was depleted as a result of men traveling abroad to fight.
There are currently some 4.6 million Michoacán natives living in the United States, and in 2019 they sent almost US $3.6 billion home in remittances.
Aureoles said that the money supports both families and communities, explaining that it is invested in businesses and used to complete small infrastructure projects, such as roadwork and repairs to schools and churches.
