Saturday, June 7, 2025

Bank of America cuts Mexico growth forecast to 1% but AMLO predicts 2%

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President confident that growth will be at the high end of projections.
President confident that growth will be at the high end of projections.

The Bank of America (BofA) halved its 2019 growth forecast for Mexico to 1% yesterday but President López Obrador doubled that figure, offering a guarantee that the economy would expand by 2%.

Citing expectations for a marked slowdown in the United States economy in coming months as well as a tightening of public finances by the federal government, the BofA lowered its outlook for gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 2% to 1% and slightly increased its forecast on inflation from 3.9% to 4%.

“If we look at it in percentage terms, the [forecast] slowdown in Mexico is 50% due to the United States and the other 50% is because of the domestic part,” said Carlos Capistrán, the bank’s chief economist in Mexico.

“The United States is starting to slow down and that’s very important for Mexico. A year ago, it [the U.S.] was growing at close to 3% and now we expect 2.5% . . . ” he added.

The BofA forecast is the lowest among outlooks from eight banks that were cited in a report published today by the newspaper El Financiero.

The second lowest forecast is for 1.2% growth by Credit Suisse while the highest is 2% by the French bank BNP Paribas.

Speaking at his daily press conference this morning, López Obrador sided with the latter, ruling out any impact by the current gasoline shortages on Mexico’s GDP.

Asked by a reporter about the Bank of America forecast, the president responded that he had his own numbers.

“About the [BofA] projection on economic growth, I have other data. I respect, of course, those who maintain that we’re not going to achieve our economic growth goals [but] I’m sure that we’re going to do very well because, look, through nothing more than eliminating . . . the whole variable of corruption . . . that will help a lot with growth,” he said.

“I’m optimistic because we’ve gone two days in which the peso is rising . . . Since we [the new government] arrived up to this time, 45 days approximately, our currency has appreciated 1 peso and 30 centavos in relation to the [US] dollar. The peso is one of the currencies that has appreciated the most in the world. We’re doing very well . . . We’re also withstanding the fuel theft crisis and we’re going to see the result . . .” López Obrador added.

“It’s good that there are these projections. The only thing I ask for from analysts is to be serious . . . they say 1% [growth], I say more than 2%, that is to say double, and it’s recorded so let’s see who’s right.”

Source: El Financiero (sp), El Economista (sp) 

Low-cost Canadian airline inaugurates Cancún flight

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Swoop's inaugural flight to Cancún is baptized on arrival.
Swoop's inaugural flight to Cancún is baptized on arrival.

Swoop, a subsidiary of the Canadian carrier WestJet, has inaugurated a new route between Hamilton, Ontario, and Cancún, with fares as low as CAD $139.

A Boeing 737-800 with capacity for 189 will make the four-hour non-stop flight every week on Monday, Saturday and Sunday,

Launch of the new route follows two others in recent weeks: Swoop began service from Hamilton and Abbotsford, B.C., to Puerto Vallarta last week and will kick off flights from Abbotsford to Mazatlán on January 20.

The ultra low cost airline began operating last June within Canada, but has since rapidly expanded to include service to international destinations such as Las Vegas, Tampa Bay, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Montego Bay, Puerto Vallarta and now Cancún.

The Canadian tourism market is the second most important for Mexico after the United States, according to tourism officials.

Darío Flota Ocampo, manager of the Quintana Roo tourism promotion council, noted that last year alone saw more than a million Canadian visitors to Cancún.

Passengers aboard the inaugural flight — refugees from Canada’s winter temperatures — were greeted by a mariachi band, gift bags and refreshments and a baptism by firefighters spraying arcs of water over the aircraft.

Source: Milenio (sp), AviationPros (en)

6-billion-peso credit package announced for small business owners

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The president announces the new loan program.
The president announces the new loan program.

President López Obrador has announced a microfinance program for small business owners.

The president told his morning press conference today that 6 billion pesos (US $316.3 million) has been allocated to the program, which will lend 6,000 pesos (about $315) to each of one million successful applicants. The one-year loans will be interest-free.

Recipients will have up to three months before they have to begin repaying the loans at the rate of 500 pesos a month.

Beneficiaries will include small businesses and entrepreneurs such as the owners of small stores and repair shops.

Once the loaned amount has been repaid applicants will be able to request a new one, explained the president. The federal Secretariat of Economy will be in charge of administering the program.

The money will be delivered directly to recipients, without any intermediaries, and favor distinct sectors such as youths, older adults and students.

Source: El Financiero (sp), El Economista (sp)

Double semi tanker truck carrying gasoline stolen in Jalisco

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A caravan of tanker trucks
A caravan of tanker trucks on its way to gas-starved central Mexico earlier this week.

Thousands of tanker trucks delivering gasoline to relieve a critical shortage in at least 10 states must be a tantalizing target for highway robbers.

One such truck carrying a total of 62,000 liters of gas was stolen yesterday as it travelled through Jalisco on the way to Zacatecas.

Officials said the incident took place as the truck was traveling on the Guadalajara-Tepatitlán highway in the municipality of Zapotlanejo.

The investigation has revealed that the thieves were traveling in a red pickup truck when they intercepted the truck and stole it. The tractor was found later, minus the trailers.

The mayor of Zapotlanejo said the incident took place near the border with the neighboring municipality of Acatic, and that some 15,000 heavy cargo vehicles travel on the road every day.

The state government questioned why the double semi tractor trailer was not following security protocols.

Much of the fuel being distributed following the closure of major pipelines is being shipped in convoys.

Source: Milenio (sp)

Officers responsible for safeguarding Pemex facilities investigated for pipeline theft

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Police seize a shipment of stolen fuel in Puebla.
Police seize a shipment of stolen fuel in Puebla.

Four army officers are under investigation by federal authorities for fuel theft from pipelines they were deployed to protect.

While in charge of security at the state oil company during the administration of former president Enrique Peña Nieto, General Eduardo León Trauwitz and Lieutenant Colonel Wenceslao Cárdenas Acuña – in their roles as chiefs of Pemex’s Strategic Safeguard Section (SSE) – allegedly ordered security agents under their command to “plant” illegal taps on pipelines and warned them that if they reported the location of the perforations, they would lose their jobs.

Brigadier General Sócrates Alfredo Herrera Pegueros, head of physical security for the SSE, and Infantry Colonel Emilio Gosgaya Rodríguez, head of technical management, were also allegedly complicit with the fuel theft and threats, according to documents from the federal Attorney General’s office (PGR) obtained by the newspaper Milenio.

The documents include reports made by several Pemex employees about the illegal acts they say they were ordered to carry out.

The testimonies, submitted to the PGR by lawyer Jorge García Andriano on March 24, 2017, had apparently not been taken into consideration by law enforcement authorities until the current federal government began its crackdown on fuel theft last month, Milenio said.

Other high-ranking Pemex officials, most of whom were also members of the military serving in the SSE, are also accused of involvement in the illegal activities allegedly committed by the four officers.

The Organized Crime Investigation Unit (SEIDO) of the PGR has summoned Pemex employees who made the reports against the officers to confirm their accounts.

In a letter submitted to the PGR along with the employee testimonies, García wrote that the incidents reported to him “probably constitute the crimes of abuse of authority, intimidation, threats, concealment and discrimination, in which officials of Petróleos Mexicanos [Pemex] could be involved.”

He also said that the army officers ordered security agents to cover up illegal taps to prevent fuel theft committed by “people unaffiliated” to the SSE from being discovered.

In other words, the lawyer claimed that the army personnel were complicit in fuel theft perpetrated by gangs of thieves known as huachicoleros.

According to SSE security agent Moisés Ángel Merlín Sibaja, on January 26, 2017, “his bosses” – among them General Trauwitz, Brigadier General Herrera and Infantry Colonel Gosgaya – ordered him to close off illegal pipeline taps even though they knew that such an instruction was “illegal” because he is not a petroleum engineer nor had he been trained to do so.

“The instructions were verbal, not written . . . They prohibited the worker from reporting it [the order] to other authorities under the threat of removing him from his job and . . . make him appear as an individual who participated in fuel theft,” García wrote.

“Materials and tools to disable illegal taps” were given to Merlín, the lawyer explained, while the employee supported his claim against the army officers with photographic evidence of “the work he was ordered to carry out.”

Pemex employees and officials have long been suspected of involvement in fuel theft, a crime that costs Mexico billions of pesos a year.

Last month, President López Obrador said that Pemex employees also steal fuel and distribute it and charged that the company’s managers were aware of it.

“There is a hypothesis that of all the [fuel] thefts, only about 20% is done by illegal pipeline taps,” Lopez Obrador said on December 27.

“It’s a kind of smoke-screen, and the majority is done through a scheme that involves the complicity of authorities and a distribution network,” he added.

The federal government is currently implementing an anti-fuel theft strategy that includes the deployment of military and Federal Police to protect Pemex refineries, storage facilities and pipelines.

It is also making greater use of tanker trucks to transport fuel rather than pipelines, a move that has caused gasoline shortages in more than 10 states.

Source: Milenio (sp) 

These are Mexico City’s most dangerous neighborhoods

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Police at a crime scene in Mexico City.
Police at a crime scene in Mexico City.

The Mexico City Attorney General’s office has identified the city’s six most dangerous neighborhoods, based on criminal investigations in 2018.

The historic city center, Doctores, Del Valle Centro, Roma Norte, Narvarte and Buena Vista led the city in homicides, extortion and theft according to the 255,313 investigations opened last year.

The government database Datos Abiertos indicated that a high percentage of the city’s criminal activity was concentrated in the those neighborhoods, from high-impact murders to the crime with the highest incidence — cell phone theft, followed by robbery of pedestrians and public transportation passengers.

On average, 7,000 cases were opened every 30 days in the six areas, and criminals were most active in the months of May, August, October and December.

Insecurity was compounded by impunity in the identified neighborhoods: the previous city administration prosecuted suspects in just 0.1% of 24,000 cases filed.

The database lists another statistic: 10,145 criminal acts went unregistered, either because the victim withdrew the complaint or was unwilling to file a police report.

Homicide statistics reveal that an average of 3.1 people were murdered every day during the last six months of 2018.

Source: El Universal (sp)

State of Guanajuato needs more police but few people want the job

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Officers in training at the Irapuato police academy.
Officers in training at the Irapuato police academy.

More police are needed in Guanajuato but municipal authorities are having little success attracting new recruits to their forces.

Governor Diego Sinhue Rodríguez Vallejo said in December that between 2012 and 2018, the number of officers in Guanajuato’s 46 municipal police forces fell from 8,500 to 5,700.

Dismissals, resignations and the murder of police have all contributed to the depletion of officer numbers.

Faced with the difficult task of making up for the shortfall, many municipal governments have improved the pay and benefits they offer.

In Irapuato, authorities have tried to lure recruits by offering the chance to win land in police raffles, providing financial assistance to buy vehicles, guaranteeing access to private hospitals and granting two life insurance policies.

The city government also offers the highest municipal police salaries in the state – 15,000 pesos (US $790) a month for a low-ranking officer – but yet it still has a shortage of around 250 police. There are currently just 36 cadets undertaking training in the Irapuato police academy.

Rodríguez, who was sworn in as governor in September, announced in the first week of December that the government would invest 600 million pesos (US $31.5 million) to purchase new equipment for police and to improve their training and salaries.

To address the police shortage, National Action Party (PAN) lawmaker José Guadalupe Vera Hernández said the state government wants minimum police salaries to be at least 14,000 pesos a month with the opportunity to earn up to 40,000 pesos (US $2,100) in higher-ranking positions.

In some municipalities, such as Cuerámaro, Huanímaro and Doctor Mora, officers currently earn less than 5,000 pesos (US $260) a month.

The need for more officers is underscored by the fact that last year was the most violent in Guanajuato’s history.

There were 2,367 culpable homicides between January and November 2018, according to statistics from the National Public Security System.

In the same period, 64 police officers were killed. In the two previous years, 2017 and 2016, there were just 10 and 12 murders of police respectively.

Much of the violence is believed to be linked to petroleum pipeline theft, drug trafficking and highway theft.

Despite the deteriorating security situation in Guanajuato and with it, increased risks for police officers, the mayor of Irapuato, Ricardo Ortiz, believes that higher salaries in the municipality he governs has helped to retain police officers and attract new ones, although he conceded more are still needed.

Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) lawmaker Héctor Hugo Varela said that conditions for municipal police also need to be improved to retain and attract officers.

He said they are sometimes forced to work shifts of 48 to 72 hours due to a lack of personnel, adding that municipal police must also be provided with the technology, equipment and training they need to do their jobs properly.

Source: El Universal (sp) 

70 Guanajuato gas stations will import gasoline from Texas

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A Mobil tanker truck with a fuel delivery.
A Mobil tanker truck with a fuel delivery.

Seventy gas stations in Guanajuato will import gasoline from Texas to meet demand amid severe fuel shortages, the state governor has announced.

Diego Sinhue Rodríguez Vallejo told a press conference that so far only Mobil service stations have brought fuel to Guanajuato from Texas, but other brands that until now have only been supplied by the state oil company are taking steps so that they can do the same.

One private company with 45 gas stations in the state is on the verge of signing a deal with a Texas supplier, Rodríguez said, and another with 19 stations is also at the tail end of negotiations with a United States company.

He declined to name the companies that are in negotiations, explaining that they had requested that information not be made public until they finalize their deals.

The French oil firm Total, which has six gas stations in Guanajuato, will also import gasoline from Texas via rail, the governor said, with the first shipment due to arrive on Wednesday.

Rodríguez also said that authorities are in talks with Mobil aimed at having the company increase its import volumes and operate 24 hours a day to meet the demand for gasoline.

“Today [Monday] a Mobil railroad tank car arrived, on Wednesday Total’s will arrive. We’re waiting for the 45 gas stations to settle [their deal] as well as the other 19 . . . Soon we’ll [have] . . . more fuel but I also call on the federal government to quickly resolve the gasoline shortage,” he said.

Rodríguez added that he was in favor of taking action to combat fuel theft but “we cannot stop demanding that the federal government supply gasoline.”

The solution to the shortage problem, the governor said, is not bringing fuel into the state on trains but to open the Salamanca-Irapuato pipeline, which was closed as part of the government’s anti-fuel theft strategy.

Rodríguez said that he will ask the federal Secretariat of Finance to provide tax incentives to affected companies and a special economic plan for Guanajuato because losses associated with the fuel shortage in the state will run into the millions of pesos.

A recent survey found that just 80 of 600 gas stations in the state were operating.

President López Obrador today praised Rodríguez’s efforts to get more gasoline to Guanajuato, declaring that “he’s helping” and that “the sooner supply in that state and the entire country is reestablished, the better.”

However, he ruled out making tax incentives available to affected companies.

Source: Milenio (sp), El Financiero (sp) 

El Chapo paid US $100-million bribe to Peña Nieto: witness

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Cifuentes, left, and Guzmán.
Cifuentes, left, and Guzmán spent time together hiding in the mountains.

A witness at the New York trial of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán testified today that former president Enrique Peña Nieto accepted a US $100-million bribe from the former head of the Sinaloa Cartel.

Alex Cifuentes Villa, formerly a Colombian drug lord who worked with Guzmán, confirmed the bribe during cross-examination by Jeffrey Lichtman, a lawyer for Guzmán.

“Mr. Guzmán paid a bribe of $100 million to President Peña Nieto?” Lichtman asked.

“Yes,” Cifuentes replied.

The money was delivered in October 2012 by an intermediary, he said. Peña Nieto was president-elect at the time.

The allegation first came up when the trial began in November. Lichtman said in his opening statement that cartel leader Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada paid millions of dollars in bribes to both Peña Nieto and his predecessor, Felipe Calderón.

Both men denied taking bribes from the cartel.

Cifuentes has described himself as Guzmán’s one-time right-hand man.

They spent time together hiding at remote ranches in the Sierra Madre mountains between 2007 and 2013 while Guzmán was on the run.

Source: Milenio (sp), New York Times (en), Reuters (en)

General touts ‘enormous’ decline in fuel theft since November

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President López Obrador listens as Velázquez relates the progress made in reducing fuel theft.
President López Obrador listens as Velázquez relates the progress made in reducing fuel theft.

The average quantity of fuel stolen on a daily basis has fallen from 80,000 barrels in November to 2,500 barrels this month, according to the army general in charge of the deployment to protect Mexico’s petroleum pipelines.

After measures were implemented to combat fuel theft in December, Arturo Velázquez Bravo said, the amount of fuel stolen declined from 80,000 barrels per day in November to an initial 40,000 barrels, after which it decreased further to 30,000 and then reached historical figures of 2,500 barrels.

“From 80,000 [barrels] to 2,500 is an enormous difference,” Velázquez added.

The general said the government’s decision to deploy the military to protect fuel infrastructure has been effective in combatting fuel theft although he conceded that the strategy “hasn’t been all hunky-dory.”

A clash between soldiers and suspected fuel thieves in Hidalgo Sunday resulted in the death of a civilian while four Federal Police officers were wounded in another confrontation with presumed huachicoleros, as the thieves are known, in Puebla last night.

One of the officers later died in a Mexico City hospital, the federal Security Secretariat said today.

Velázquez said that just over 5,000 members of the army, navy and Federal Police have been deployed to protect five petroleum pipelines across Mexico.

“The country has approximately 56,000 kilometers of [petroleum] pipelines, of which we consider 13,000 kilometers problematic and 6,000 [kilometers] critical . . .” he said.

As part of the strategy to combat fuel theft, the state oil company has been making greater use of tanker trucks to transport fuel rather than pipelines, a move that has caused gasoline shortages in more than 10 states.

Source: El Universal (sp), Milenio (sp)