Can Mexico’s elites thwart a surging left-wing presidential candidate?

By

-

June 25, 2018

AMLO on the campaign trail. EPA/David Guzman

From the start of Mexico’s latest general election campaign, left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (or “AMLO”) has for weeks been the clear favourite to win.

This is his third attempt to win the presidency, and once again he’s running with an agenda focused on curbing corruption and poverty – the combination of which, he argues, is the fundamental cause of Mexico’s social unrest and economic stagnation.

Twelve years after his first try – and the ensuing “war on drugs” strategy that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives across the country – he has floated a new idea to pacify the nation: an amnesty for people involved in drug-related violence.

With the July 1 polling day getting closer, the 64-year-old and his proposals seem to have good support among Mexicans, and he retains a double-digit advantage over his competitors. But his path to the presidency will not be smooth.

At the start of the campaign, López Obrador was up against four other candidates: the incumbent Institutional Revolutionary Party’s (PRI) Jose Antonio Meade; Ricardo Anaya, a member of the conservative National Action Party (PAN) running in coalition with two other parties; and two independent candidates, both former members of traditional parties. One of them, Margarita Zavala, dropped out in May citing her poor chances, while the other, Jaime Rodríguez or “El Bronco,” is polling at less than 3%.

According to most polls, López Obrador could win with up to 50% of the vote, which on the face of it should mean he has little to worry about. But his opponents have at their disposal a variety of ways to thwart his supposedly assured victory.

Some are attempting to rally around a single anti-López Obrador candidate, with the support of the Mexican Business Council, an elite group composed of around 60 of the richest men and women in Mexico. This group has always been against redistributive policies and, by extension, López Obrador’s “poor first” campaigns.

But the clock is ticking, and with the PRI’s campaign failing to gain traction, a new alternative is rising. Some campaign spokespeople have publicly acknowledged that some businessmen have been applying pressure on them to pull out in favour of PAN’s candidate Ricardo Anaya, considering him the only candidate who could plausibly defeat López Obrador.

Even if López Obrador manages to overcome fierce private sector opposition, he may face another hurdle: irrespective of the ultimate turnout and result, the presidential election will have to be validated by an independent tribunal, and local elections as well.

The Electoral Tribunal is crucial for ensuring confidence in the democratic process, but its independence has been contested because of some of its recent rulings – among them the decision to let “El Bronco” run for the presidency in spite of clear evidence that the citizen signatures he gathered to support his candidacy were fraudulent.

Since it has the authority to invalidate the presidential election altogether, the tribunal’s potential vulnerability to compromise or corruption is deeply worrying.

A less likely, but still possible, obstruction to López Obrador’s ambitions is the use of force. In December 2017 the Mexican Congress passed a new home security law ostensibly intended to provide the military with “more certainty” to undertake law enforcement and security tasks amid a continuing battle against criminal organizations.

But the law’s critics have said that this new legal framework will give a free hand to whoever holds power to exert pressure on civilians, repress political opponents or crack down on large-scale demonstrations. The law enables the incumbent president to limit democratic liberties at will.

Victory in the presidential election appears to be a foregone conclusion for López Obrador against corruption and extreme wealth concentration. But Mexico’s opposition parties and monied elites are doing all they can to frustrate his third, and probably last, run for the top job – and to stop him changing the country in ways that don’t suit their interests.

Irving Huerta is a PhD student in politics at Goldsmiths, University of London. This article was originally published on The Conversation.

US potato imports barred over security, sovereignty concerns

By

MND Staff

-

June 25, 2018

0

A potential threat to national security.

A federal judge barred the import of fresh potatoes from the United States today on national security and biosecurity grounds.

The decision, made by José Francisco Pérez Mier of the Seventh District Court in Los Mochis, Sinaloa — a potato-producing state, overturned a 2016 decision adopted by the Secretariat of Agriculture (Sagarpa) to allow potato imports from Mexico’s northern neighbor.

The judge said that Sagarpa’s reform to the Federal Law on Plant Health was unconstitutional because it didn’t include measures to protect against the introduction of plant diseases and therefore posed a threat to national sovereignty and security and crops such as chiles, tomatoes, eggplants and tobacco.

The domestic potato industry could disappear if fresh potato imports from the United States continue, Pérez said.

The amparo or injunction he handed down said the lack of protective measures “implies an imminent risk of plagues spreading on national soil.”

Pérez also accused the federal government of favoring government-subsidized United States potato farmers instead of supporting local production of the vegetable.

The judge said that would cause Mexico to become food dependent on a “foreign power,” namely the United States.

Pérez described the U.S. as “a power that in recent times has institutionalized hostile policies towards Mexico and on the supposition that it comes to dominate the national market, it will be the only supplier of the tuber.”

He added that “the entry of fresh potatoes from the United States violates the human right to food, is contrary to national sovereignty established by article 39 of the constitution and threatens national security by causing food dependence.”

It is the second time that an injunction banning potato imports from the United States has been handed down.

Following today’s ruling, a Supreme Court judge called on his colleagues to intervene in the case and make a definitive decision to avoid further legal back-and-forth actions that would result from the government appealing the ban.

Alfredo Gutiérrez Ortiz Mena took up the cause of agricultural producers from the northeast of the country by suggesting that the government’s previous appeals be reviewed by Mexico’s highest court.

At least three of the five justices of the First Chamber of the Supreme Court must support his proposal in order for a hearing of the case to proceed.

If the Supreme Court doesn’t assume jurisdiction, it will be up to an administrative court in Culiacán, Sinaloa, to make a definitive ruling.

Source: El Universal (sp), Reforma (sp)

Summer could be best in 10 years for supermarkets, department stores

By

MND Staff

-

June 25, 2018

0

More discounting is coming during the summer.

Predicted bumper sales at Mexico’s supermarkets and department stores between June and August could make this summer their best in 10 years, according to market analysts.

Sales will increase between 5% and 7% compared to the same period last year, analysts anticipate, with the World Cup in Russia and this Sunday’s elections expected to drive the surge in household expenditures.

“We expect that consumption will benefit from higher [pre-]election spending in the coming days, in addition to the World Cup, when there is significant demand for televisions as well as snacks and drinks,” said Valentín Mendoza, an analyst at the brokerage division of Mexican bank Banorte.

Another factor is the historically high level of remittances which have increased in value due to a weaker peso.

Even those without money in the pocket from abroad or elsewhere will spend more, according to a Tec. de Monterrey professor.

“Despite the increase in interest rates, at the end of the day Mexicans will consume more this summer and then they’ll worry about [paying back] the credit later . . .” Francisco Javier Orozco said.

In attempts to increase their share of the expected windfall profits, all of the nation’s large retailers have already started rolling out aggressive marketing strategies that include offering discounts on key products to get customers through their doors.

For Fathers’ Day, which was celebrated on June 17, supermarket chains Soriana and Chedraui went head to head on alcohol promotions.

The former offered three for the price of two deals on wine and liquor while the latter dropped their prices on all stock in the same categories by 30%.

All of the Walmart-owned chain stores have also started their summer promotional campaigns.

Its flagship store of the same name has started its “Rebajas para todos” (Discounts for everyone) campaign with former soccer star Jorge Campos as its face.

The company’s membership-only retail warehouse Sam’s Club is offering interest-free purchases and other bonuses, while its premium supermarket chain Superama is offering a variety of three for two deals.

Walmart’s discount chain Bodega Aurrerá is celebrating 60 years in business with a campaign entitled “60 años creciendo contigo” (60 years growing with you) and is offering reduced prices across its range.

Chedraui, Soriana and Comercial Mexicana (La Comer) are also offering a range of promotions, deals and discounts.

Not to be outdone, the department stores Liverpool, Palacio de Hierro and Sears are also intent on grabbing their slice of the sales action and have started their summer sales.

Liverpool began its “Gran Barata de Verano” (Great summer sale) on June 20, with discounts of up to 40% on a range of clothing and accessories.

The sale, which will conclude on July 31, also gives customers with a Liverpool card the option of buying now but not paying until October.

Palacio de Hierro will have discounts of up to 60% until July 12 and “double points” promotions for its cardholders while Sears will offer discounts of up to 50% until July 2 as part of its “WOW!” promotion.

Annual average sales growth for supermarkets and department stores in the three-month summer period has ranged between 0.1% and 6.5% over the past 10 years.

In 2008, however, sales spiked by 12.3% compared to the year before and in 2007 and 2006, growth was even stronger at 13.7% and 18.9% respectively.

An average spend at a Mexican supermarket is 1,550 pesos (US$78) made up of 95 different items, according to consumer knowledge company Kantar Worldpanel.

Source: El Financiero (sp)

Morena’s Sheinbaum leads by 13 points in Mexico City mayor’s race

By

MND Staff

-

June 25, 2018

0

Sheinbaum: polls suggest she will be next mayor of Mexico City.

If the polls are right, voters across Mexico and in the nation’s capital will elect a new president and city mayor on Sunday who represent a political party that didn’t even exist five years ago.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador has a commanding lead in the race to become Mexico’s next president and in Mexico City, Claudia Sheinbaum is on track to become the next mayor.

Both candidates are running for a coalition known as Together We Will Make History, which is led by the leftist National Regeneration Movement or Morena party.

Morena was founded as a non-profit organization in 2012 and registered as a political party in 2014.

With less than a week until election day, the candidate widely known as AMLO has 46.3% voter support, according to today’s update of the Bloomberg poll tracker, while Ricardo Anaya is in second place with 26.5%.

The candidate for the right-left coalition led by the National Action Party (PAN) is just ahead of ruling party candidate José Antonio Meade, who has 24.7% support.

Independent candidate Jaime “El Bronco” Rodríguez, who took leave as governor of Nuevo León to contest the presidential election, is in a distant last place with just 2.9%.

A survey conducted by the polling firm Consulta Mitofsky put AMLO’s lead over Anaya at a slightly larger margin of 23%.

Another new poll — conducted by GEA-ISA — showed López Obrador with 44% voter preference, two points less than in its previous poll but still with a strong lead over Anaya, who had 28% support.

Meade rose five points in the GEA-ISA survey to 26%, just two points behind Anaya.

Both Meade and Anaya will be pushing this week to sell themselves as the second-place candidate in order to convince voters that they are the best choice for an anti-AMLO voto útil, or strategic vote.

However, their chances of closing the gap that separates them from AMLO appear slim. Bloomberg said “it looks like Lopez Obrador’s stars are aligned to win the presidential election and possibly sweep Congress.”

The official campaign period closes Wednesday. López Obrador will hold his final rally at Mexico’s largest sports stadium, the Estadio Azteca, in southern Mexico City.

In the capital, Sheinbaum — who previously served as the head of government in the southern Mexico City borough of Tlalpan — has a 13-point lead over her nearest rival in the mayoral race, according to a poll conducted by the newspaper El Financiero.

The Morena candidate has 45% support while Alejandra Barrales of the right-left coalition For Mexico in Front is in second place with 32%. The candidate for the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), Mikel Arriola, is in third place with 19%.

The four other candidates share the remaining 4% of voter preferences, according to the poll conducted between June 14 and 18 with 800 eligible voters.

The survey shows a tightening of the race compared to the last El Financiero poll, which showed Sheinbaum with a 20-point advantage over Barrales.

Morena is also on track to become the largest party in the city’s Congress, with 42% of those polled saying that they would vote for the party followed by 19% who said they intended to vote for the PAN and 15% who indicated a preference for the PRI.

The Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD), which has governed the capital uninterruptedly since 1997, will be left as the fourth political force in the capital.

Sheinbaum leads in Mexico City poll. el financiero

López Obrador represented the party as Mexico City mayor between 2000 and 2005 and contended the presidency in the 2006 and 2012 elections under the party banner, but later quit to head up Morena.

In addition to voting for a new president and mayor of Mexico City, voters will also renew the federal Congress and residents of eight states will elect a new governor.

Thousands of other state and municipal level positions are also up for grabs, including the head of government positions in the capital’s 16 boroughs.

A total of 100 candidates are vying to become the next mayor in those boroughs but of that number just seven hopefuls have provided declarations of their assets, business interests and tax records in accordance with the transparency initiative known as the 3de3.

Political violence has marred the electoral process, which officially began last September, but the president of the National Electoral Institute (INE), Lorenzo Córdova Vianello, has assured the Mexican public that the July 1 elections are not at risk.

Source: El Financiero (sp), Bloomberg (en), Milenio (sp)

In this Veracruz municipality police don’t carry guns, only slingshots

By

César Hernández

-

June 25, 2018

0

The mayor demonstrates the use of a slingshot in front of disarmed police.

Municipal police in Alvarado, Veracruz, whose weapons were taken from them by order of the state government, have been rearmed — with slingshots.

State police relieved their municipal counterparts of their guns and their duties on Friday on the grounds that they were not properly accredited police officers. Thirty officers, including the chief, were affected.

The state government also intervened in a similar manner in the municipalities of Ixtaczoquitlán, Ciudad Mendoza and Pueblo Viejo.

Claiming that the move was political, Alvarado Mayor Bogar Ruiz Rosas responded by handing out slingshots and stones to the unarmed police officers and advising them that their most powerful weapon was their vote.

Ruiz found it “strange” that the municipality’s autonomy was violated just one week before the elections.

“It’s clear to us that this is a totally political issue and we have to be prepared to carry out our work, professionally, as you have seen us do it,” he wrote on Facebook.

Governor Miguel Ángel Yunes Linares responded by stating that Alvarado’s municipal police are no longer permitted to participate in law enforcement operations, and that if they do they would be violating regulations and would be tried for it.

Yunes is affiliated with the National Action Party, while Mayor Ruiz was elected under a coalition between the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party and its long-time ally, the Ecological Green Party.

Source: El Universal (sp), e-veracruz (sp)

28 cops detained in assassination of Michoacán candidate

By

César Hernández

-

June 25, 2018

0

Ocampo's police force after their arrest yesterday.

The entire municipal police department of Ocampo, Michoacán, was taken into custody yesterday in connection with the investigation of last week’s assassination of a candidate for mayor.

State police arrested the 27 police officers and the chief under suspicion of ties with organized crime and the assassination on Thursday of Fernando Ángeles Juárez, who was running for mayor as the candidate of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD).

An attempt to arrest the police officers was thwarted on Saturday when Ocampo Police Chief Óscar González García and other officers allegedly repelled the state police with gunfire.

The latter have now taken over policing in Ocampo.

On Saturday, a man was arrested in the investigation into the assassination of Alejandro Chávez Zavala on June 14.

Chávez was running for reelection as mayor of Taretan under a National Action Party-Democratic Revolution Party-Citizens’ Movement coalition.

State Attorney General José Martín Godoy said that ballistic tests linked the suspect with the attack on Chávez and his wife.

Godoy said that a dispute in the organization of a local fair may have led to the killing. He added that the slain politician had been the victim of extortion on two occasions, but there was no evidence that he reported the crimes.

Source: El Universal (sp), BBC (en), Milenio (sp)

In Tamaulipas, gunfire near governor’s house and a march for peace

By

César Hernández

-

June 25, 2018

0

A peace march yesterday in violence-torn Reynosa.

Continuing violence in Tamaulipas saw gunfire near the governor’s house in Ciudad Victoria and a march for peace in Reynosa.

A few minutes before 5:00am yesterday, a state police patrol car was attacked in the vicinity of the official residence of Governor Francisco García Cabeza de Vaca, a home known as Casa Tamaulipas.

One of the police officers inside the vehicle was injured, the Public Security Secretariat (SSP) said.

An abandoned SUV that was found later had firearms and ammunition inside.

The SSP said preliminary investigations have shown that the shots fired at the police vehicle came from the SUV.

Local news outlets also reported that a threatening message was found near the official residence and addressed to the governor.

Later yesterday, about 100 people took to the streets of Reynosa to march for peace and protest the ongoing armed confrontations in the border town, one of which cost the life of a 14-year-old.

Jesús Hernández was killed by a stray bullet earlier this month, fired in the vicinity of the secondary school from which he was about to graduate.

The student’s parents led the march, which followed a route to the city’s main square and finished with a rally.

The protesters were dressed in white and carried signs reading, “We don’t want to be prisoners in our own homes, we want freedom,” and “Reynosa is mourning.”

Hernández’s father demanded that medical staff be assigned to every school in the city. He argued that his son received no medical attention and that there was no one at the school who could help him, leading to his death.

Source: Milenio (sp), Sin Embargo (sp)

Competitive fuel market is still some years off, analysts say

By

MND Staff

-

June 25, 2018

0

FullGas is one of Mexico's new gas station brands.

It will take another two to five years to attain a truly competitive fuel market with lower gasoline prices for motorists, according to industry specialists.

The federal government’s 2013 energy reform opened up Mexico’s retail fuel market to foreign and private companies and there are now more than 2,000 gas stations that operate under a brand other than the state-owned Pemex.

But the increased competition hasn’t translated into cheaper fuel prices as had been expected.

“It was thought that it would be faster but that’s not the case,” said Rodrigo Favela, a consultant and fuel market analyst.

Favela told the newspaper Milenio that based on experiences in other countries, creating a competitive market takes time.

In addition, greater competition in the retail fuel market is not enough on its own to generate lower fuel prices, according to Mexico’s central bank.

In its regional economies report for the last quarter of 2017, the Bank of México said greater investment is needed in the entire gasoline supply chain from the refinery to the gas station in order for prices to drop.

Sebastián Figueroa, CEO of energy operator FullGas, told Milenio that gas stations in the north of the country could start competing on price within one to two years.

He cited proximity to the United States, the presence of existing pipelines, greater ease with which fuel can be imported and lower logistics costs as factors that will likely see fuel prices drop more quickly there than in other parts of the country.

In central states, Figueroa predicted that it would be another three to four years before competitiveness among gas stations increases due to the need for more infrastructure while in the southeast of Mexico, it could take up to five years or more.

In the latter region, the development of the new infrastructure that is needed — such as pipelines —is more complicated because of geological factors, he said.

Considering that fuel prices have actually risen since Mexico’s previously monopolized fuel market opened up, Milenio asked the president of the Senate’s energy committee whether energy reform should be considered a failure.

Salvador Vega Casillas, of the opposition National Action Party (PAN), rejected that suggestion but said it was a mistake to liberalize fuel prices at a time when the value of the US dollar was high against the peso. Gasoline prices were fully deregulated by November 30 last year.

However, Figueroa said that if the government had waited any longer to free prices, more problems could have been created for the sector because a subsidized model is not sustainable.

He maintained that the reform is a positive for Mexico, charging that having only one participant in the downstream sector led to inefficiency whereas competition forces gas stations to offer better deals to motorists.

Federal Energy Secretary Pedro Joaquín Coldwell has also contended that an open and competitive market is the best way to achieve gasoline prices that are accessible to all Mexicans.

Favela explained that there are three main factors that determine the price of petroleum at the pump: international crude oil prices, the prevailing exchange rate and logistics costs.

In order to generate a more competitive market, he argued, all petroleum companies should have non-discriminatory access to the nation’s oil terminals and ports.

Despite opening up the domestic fuel market to new players, the majority of Mexico’s petroleum infrastructure is still controlled by the state oil company Pemex.

The average price of regular — or Magna — gasoline has risen 17% this year, according to the consultancy PETROIntelligence, from 16.24 pesos per liter at the beginning of January to 19 pesos. Prices were as high as 19.11 pesos on Friday in Guadalajara.

Source: Milenio (sp)

Semi completely destroyed after train wins another race

By

Tony Richards

-

June 25, 2018

0

Truck burns after Saturday's collision with a train.

A semi-tractor and its two trailers were completely destroyed in Tlaxcala Saturday after the driver attempted to race a train to a level crossing.

The locomotive struck the cab of the truck, destroying it and catapulting the 23-year-old driver 20 meters away, Civil Protection officials said. He was transferred to hospital with various injuries and burns.

The truck burst into flame on impact with the train and was destroyed by fire, along with the trailers and their load of barley.

The accident occurred Saturday afternoon in Huamantla on the Huamantla-El Carmen Xalpatlahuaya highway.

Racing trains to a crossing is not uncommon and causes a few hundred accidents every year. Jalisco led the way in 2017 with 85 and 95% were estimated to have been caused by drivers racing to beat a train to a level crossing.

Source: Reforma (sp)

Watch out for the waves, lifeguards warn; swell causes fatality in Manzanillo

By

Tony Richards

-

June 25, 2018

0

A lifeguard patrols a beach in Acapulco.

Authorities in Guerrero issued a warning yesterday that the danger continued from Pacific Ocean swells, large waves that have taken one life since a warning was first issued last Wednesday.

A tourist in Manzanillo, Colima, was swept off the beach and dragged out to sea by a strong current on Friday.

The 35-year-old man was in front of a hotel on the beach known as Playa de Oro.

“Unfortunately, there are people who go in the water not knowing the area,” said Mayor Juan Enrique García Pérez.

An officer with the tourist police said people become confident about entering the water when conditions appear calm, but the rip currents are common and dangerous.

Another officer said there have been several rescues. He observed that the summer season brings bigger waves that, when combined with the mar de fondo, become yet more dangerous.

The mayor said some beaches are very dangerous, and more so in the rainy season.

In Acapulco yesterday, a lifeguard warned that anyone who cannot swim should not approach the water. The waves are “very strong. Some are more than three meters high,” said Juan Carlos Ramos.

The warning of a swell, or mar de fondo, was issued for six states, from Chiapas to Jalisco.

Source: Televisa (sp)