A large majority of Mexicans are in favor of the controversial judicial reform proposal submitted to Congress by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, according to the results of three polls commissioned by the ruling Morena party.
President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum announced the results of the polls at a press conference on Monday.
The judicial reform proposal — which seeks to allow citizens to directly elect Supreme Court justices and other judges, among other objectives — was sent to Congress in February as part of a large package of proposed constitutional changes.
Since Morena’s comprehensive victory in the June 2 elections, concerns over the likelihood of the approval of the reform proposals — particularly the judicial one — have caused the Mexican peso to depreciate around 8% against the US dollar.
Critics say that some of the proposals, including one to disband a number of autonomous government agencies, will reduce checks and balances on executive power in Mexico.
Sheinbaum supports the proposals, but pledged last week that there would be “broad consultation” before they are considered by the new Congress, which will be sworn in Sept. 1.
The surveys — conducted by the polling companies De las Heras and Enkoll, and Morena’s Polling Commission, at homes across the country — are part of the consultation process.
A total of more than 3,800 people responded to the three surveys, which were conducted between June 14 and 16.
The margin of error was between +/- 2.57% and +/- 2.9%, while the confidence level was 95%, according to the two polling companies and Morena’s Polling Commission.
4 in 5 respondents believe the judicial reform is necessary
Over 80% of respondents to the Enkoll (83%) and Morena (81%) polls said they believed that carrying out the judicial reform is necessary, while 77% of those polled by De las Heras said the same.
The percentage of respondents who said the reform wasn’t necessary ranged from 12%-14%, while the remainder of those polled didn’t respond or didn’t have an opinion one way or the other.
Of note is that around half of those polled — 54%, 51% and 49%, according to the different polls — hadn’t heard of the proposed reform before they were asked about in the survey.
However, the majority of those people were evidently not dissuaded from expressing support for the proposed reform, despite their lack of knowledge about it.
López Obrador argues that Mexico’s judiciary is at the service of the nation’s elite rather than ordinary people, and that it needs renewal. Sheinbaum agrees.
A key aim of the proposal is to allow citizens to elect Supreme Court justices from candidates nominated by the sitting president, the Congress and sitting Supreme Court justices themselves.
Among its other objectives are to reduce the number of Supreme Court justices from 11 to nine, to shorten their terms from 15 years to 12, and to cap their maximum permitted salary at the same level as that earned by the president.
Referring to the survey results, Sheinbaum said Monday that “a very high percentage of the population believes that it is necessary” to overhaul the judiciary.
She noted that the percentage of poll respondents who are in favor of the reform is even higher than the 59.75% support she attracted in the presidential election on June 2.
Around 7 in 10 respondents believe citizens should elect Supreme Court justices and other judges
Respondents to the three polls were specifically asked how Supreme Court (SCJN) justices should be chosen, and how other judges and magistrates should be selected.
Exactly three-quarters of respondents to both the Enkoll and Morena polls said that the Mexican people should elect SCJN justices, while 68% of those polled by De las Heras said the same.
Between 18% and 25% of the respondents said that the Senate should elect the justices, as is currently the case. A short list of three candidates are submitted to the Senate by the sitting president when a position for a justice becomes available.
However, late last year, López Obrador directly appointed Lenia Batres Guadarrama as a SCJN justice after the Senate on two occasions failed to endorse any of the candidates he put forward. It was the first time in Mexican history that a president made a direct appointment.
Asked how lower-ranking justices and magistrates should be chosen, around seven in 10 respondents again responded that citizens should elect them. Between 19%-24% of those polled said that the judicial power itself should choose the judges that preside over Mexico’s courts.
A majority of respondents believe all or most judges are corrupt
One in five of those polled by De las Heras said they believed that all justices, judges and magistrates are corrupt, while 17% of respondents to the Enkoll survey and 15% of those who spoke with Morena pollsters said the same.
Much larger numbers of people said that “the majority” of judges are corrupt: 44% (Enkoll); 40% (Morena) and 38% (De las Heras).
Thus 55%-61% of those polled either said that all or most judges are corrupt, sharing an opinion that López Obrador and other government officials have voiced on countless occasions.
Around three in 10 respondents (26%-34%) said that only a few judges are corrupt, while only 2%-5% of those polled said that no judges are corrupt. The remainder declined to share an opinion.
Almost 9 in 10 respondents support the creation of an independent judicial watchdog
The pollsters also asked respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with the creation of an independent body to oversee the judicial system, investigate alleged misdeeds and sanction judges where appropriate.
Between 85%-89% of respondents said they agreed with the idea, while only 7%-9% disagreed.
As the proposed judicial reform would change Mexico’s constitution, it requires support from two-thirds of lawmakers to pass Congress.
Morena and its allies won a supermajority in the lower house on June 2, but fell just short in the Senate, meaning that they will have to gain the support of a few opposition senators in order to approve constitutional reform proposals put forward by López Obrador and Sheinbaum, who will be sworn in as Mexico’s first female president on Oct. 1.
With reports from El Economista, Reforma and El Financiero
“Reform” That’s what you call creating a Kangaroo court? So let’s get this straight, the Morena’s party hires a poll to find in their favor, from selected poll recipients, to say the overwhelming Mexican population favors the government to put forth their favorite choices for judges, and eliminating all others, and somehow this is good for the people. This is called AUTHORITARIANISM. Plain and simple, taking the judicial branch of the government away and replacing it with this nonsense. A very, very dangerous path, my friends. DO NOT…. DO NOT…. LET THIS HAPPEN🇲🇽
The judicial reform is only contraversial for the dying debunked Mexican ruling class (oligarchs, corrupt politicians and white collar criminals). You hear of the so called contraversy in mainstream media because as I have explained in the past, the media is owned by the ruling class. The vastl majority of Mexicans are well aware of the corrupt judicial branch as evidenced by polls. You must understand Mexico’s history to have a coherent opinion. The judicial system is corrupt as hell and it will be reformed. Without president Obrador this would of never happened. It’s now part of Mexico’s transformation. Claudia will see it through!
I don’t know enough to definitively take sides. I’d like to think that the poll is not a set up and, indeed, I’ve heard of no contrary polling. As a lawyer familiar with a different system of judicial accountability in Alta California and none at the Ido Federal Supreme Court, an alternative would be the Alta California approach of the Executive appointing Judges subject to retention, recall, and vacancy elections with the vast majority taking office by appointment and the State High Court appointments involving the Commission on Judicial Nominee Evaluation. The Federal system in the U.S.A. is scandalous, it appears that the judicial system in México is as well; but, that won’t necessarily end with elections esp. excessive elections.
Mexico is on the cusp of becoming one party state. Making the judiciary subservient to the New PRI, ur, sorry, Morena, what could go wrong?
It was a one-party State with the P.R.I. for a very long time. Now, I’m not in favor of a one-party State.
Yes that was my point. Old PRI, meet new PRI, dressed up with Amlo populism.
There are 6 registered parties. You must get more than 3% of the popular vote to be registered (which means you receive government funding; this is very different from the US.) In the June 2 election, Morena won overwhelmingly. That’s not a one-party state, and no one – there were many international observers – found any fraud. What the result shows is huge support for Morena, and a rejection of the PRI/PAN/PRD coalition, which ran with no platform to speak of. They ran a really poor campaign. All Xochitl did was call Claudia names. This is not similar to the PRI dominance of 70 years, which ruled through both corruption and clientelism. The free and fair vote of the people for one party is not “one-party rule.” It’s democracy.
With unqualified judges elected by an uninformed electorate, you can expect to see erosion of the rule of law in Mexico. The dramatic drop in the value of the peso since the election is a sign of the concern by investors. Nissan-Mercedes-Renault announced the plan to close their joint manufacturing operation in Aguascalientes today. They specifically cited their concerns about the current “reform” programs planned.
3,800 people is a good start by far too small a sample size for a country of 129MM people. I’m not a statistician so I could be wrong but I need to know more about the 95% confidence limit. On the other hand Morena won nearly the entire country, the majority or plurality, so I don’t know. I guess I’m kind of depressed about the results and what it means and how it will be used to provide support for what I think are dangerous changes to a very fine democracy