Mexico is the largest supplier of oil to Cuba, an energy-strapped country that has long relied on imports to meet demand for petroleum products.
The importance of imports from Mexico is even more significant now because Cuba is no longer receiving oil from Venezuela due to a U.S. blockade of oil tankers in the South American nation in December and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month.
However, there is a possibility that Mexico could stop sending oil to the blackout-plagued, communist-run Caribbean island out of a desire not to upset the U.S., according to a report by Reuters.
Citing three “senior Mexican government sources,” the news agency reported on Friday that the Sheinbaum administration is “reviewing whether to keep sending oil to Cuba amid growing fears … that Mexico could face reprisals from the United States over the policy.”
Reuters wrote that Mexico’s “pivotal role in sending oil to Cuba” has put the country “in Washington’s crosshairs,” noting that U.S. President Donald Trump “has stressed Cuba is ‘ready to fall'” and declared in a Jan. 11 social media post that “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO!”
Separately, Politico reported on Friday that “the Trump administration is weighing new tactics to drive regime change in Cuba, including imposing a total blockade on oil imports to the Caribbean country.”
The news outlet said its reporting was based on information from “three people familiar with the plan.”
Politico wrote that “no decision has been made on whether to approve” a blockade on oil imports to Cuba — which would presumably take Mexico’s decision out of its own hands — but added that “it could be among the suite of possible actions presented to President Donald Trump to force the end of Cuba’s communist government.”
President Claudia Sheinbaum has said publicly that Mexico will continue to send oil to Cuba, declaring last Wednesday that Mexico “will always be there” to support the island nation both with petroleum and humanitarian aid.
However, Reuters reported that the Mexican government sources said that the policy of sending oil to Cuba is “under internal review as anxiety grows within Sheinbaum’s cabinet that the shipments could antagonize Trump.”
Mexico is certainly in a tricky position. Mexican governments have long supported Cuba, and both Sheinbaum and her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, expressed their opposition to the long-standing U.S. embargo against the Caribbean nation. Now, however, the Sheinbaum administration is especially wary about angering the United States as the USMCA free trade pact is up for review this year and Trump has threatened to launch unilateral strikes on cartels in Mexican territory, something that remains a possibility despite Sheinbaum’s repeated public assertions that such a move won’t happen.
“There is a growing fear that the United States could take unilateral action on our territory,” said one of Reuters’ Mexican government sources.
#Petróleo 🇲🇽🇨🇺 Sheinbaum aceptó que México sigue enviando crudo a Cuba por razones humanitarias, bajo una lógica de apoyo regional y contratos establecidos. #Periodistas pic.twitter.com/1bAtAxeATd
— Periodistas Oaxaca (@PeriodistasOax) January 22, 2026
Reuters reported that it “remains unclear what ultimate decision the Mexican government might take” with regard to sending oil to Cuba “with sources saying a complete halt, a reduction and a continuation in full are all still on the table.”
Citing its three sources, the news agency also wrote that within the Mexican government “there is a belief that Washington’s strategy of cutting off Cuba’s oil could push the country into an unprecedented humanitarian disaster, triggering mass migration to Mexico.”
“For this reason, they added, some in the government are pushing to maintain some fuel supplies to the island,” Reuters reported.
The news agency said that it was told by Sheinbaum’s office that Mexico “‘has always been in solidarity with the people of Cuba.'” The president’s office also told Reuters that “shipping oil to Cuba and a separate agreement to pay for the services of Cuban doctors ‘are sovereign decisions.'”
Reuters: Trump questioned Sheinbaum about oil shipments to Cuba in recent call
Citing two of its sources, Reuters reported that “Trump questioned Sheinbaum about crude and fuel shipments to Cuba and the presence of thousands of Cuban doctors in Mexico” during the leaders’ Jan. 12 call.
Again citing its Mexican government sources, Reuters reported that “Sheinbaum responded that the shipments are ‘humanitarian aid,'” — even though Mexico has paid for at least some of the oil it sends to Cuba — “and that the doctors deal ‘is in full compliance’ with Mexican law.”
The sources added that “Trump did not directly urge Mexico to halt the oil deliveries,” Reuters reported.
The call between Sheinbaum and Trump came four days after the U.S. president said that the United States was “going to start now hitting land, with regard to the cartels,” a remark that increased expectations that a U.S. military strike on a cartel target in Mexico would occur.
After her conversation with Trump, Sheinbaum said that U.S. military action in Mexico could be ruled out.
Still, Reuters reported that its three sources said that Mexican officials are “increasingly concerned about a growing presence of U.S. Navy drones over the Gulf of Mexico since December.”
“Local media have reported, using flight-tracking data, that at least three U.S. Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drones have conducted a dozen flights over the Bay of Campeche, roughly following the route taken by tankers carrying Mexican fuel to Cuba,” the news agency wrote.
“These same reconnaissance aircraft were spotted off the Venezuelan coast in December, days before the U.S. attack on the South American country.”
Krauze: Mexico can’t support the ‘Cuban dictatorship’ and expect ‘goodwill’ from US
In an opinion article published in The Washington Post last Thursday under the headline “Sheinbaum’s Cuba policy is testing Washington’s patience,” journalist and columnist León Krauze noted that he was recently told by Republican Party congressman Carlos A. Giménez that “the Mexican government’s invocation of humanism” to justify its oil shipments to Cuba ‘is an excuse President Sheinbaum is using to help Cuba sustain its regime because they match ideologically.'”
Krauze also cited Giménez as saying that Mexico is “propping up a dictatorship that denies its people their human rights.”
“Indeed,” the journalist wrote in WaPo, “funneling oil into Cuba does not seem to benefit the Cuban people.”
“Cuba continues to endure chronic food shortages, blackouts and appalling poverty, and political repression has intensified. Mexico’s oil is only helping to entrench the brutal regime,” Krauze wrote.
Later in his column, he asserted that “for better or worse, Sheinbaum will soon be forced to choose.”
“Amid Venezuela’s collapse, Cuba’s economic free-fall and broader geopolitical tensions — especially in the Western Hemisphere — Mexico cannot openly sustain the Cuban dictatorship while simultaneously expecting goodwill or flexibility from Washington,” Krauze wrote.
He also wrote that “the Sheinbaum administration may be downplaying the extent of the support it is providing to Cuba.”
“According to reporting by the anti-corruption watchdog Mexicanos Contra la Corrupción, Pemex last year shipped roughly $3 billion worth of oil to Cuba, while officially reporting only about $400 million to the United States,” Krauze wrote.
