Mexico played a prominent role in the 2016 United States presidential campaign.
Then-candidate Donald Trump essentially pointed to Mexico as a source of problems. From his perspective, the country was not only taking advantage of the free trade agreement that went into effect in 1994, but also sending people to the United States who were stealing jobs from American citizens.
He managed to instill in the public conversation the idea that trade deficits were undesirable — without any nuance — and that he, of course, would reverse the imbalance by renegotiating the treaty.
Despite the continuous threats, Trump’s victory caught Mexico off guard in that discussion. The trade relationship was taken for granted, and there wasn’t even enough information on hand to defend the agreement.
Hastily, a team was assembled that successfully renegotiated the treaty (the US-Mexico Canada Agreement or USMCA), which was signed in November 2018 by the presidents of Mexico and the United States and the Canadian prime minister. It went into effect on July 1, 2020.
The new treaty is very similar to the previous one, but there are some important changes, including the addition of the “sunset clause,” which means that the agreement will be reviewed every six years, with the idea of providing certainty and ensuring that the terms remain relevant.
This idea, which sounds very good in theory, contrasted with the comments of the then-U.S. Trade Representative, who indicated that the clause would help prevent the country from finding itself in an unequal relationship.
The sunset clause will be activated in 2026 leading to a USMCA review, most likely with Trump as president of the United States again. Although the current agreement was signed under his administration, Mexico would do well to be prepared not only for a political bashing campaign, but also for an aggressive U.S. approach to trade.
Some say that Mexico fared well under the Trump administration, and even if we concede that assertion, there is no reason why the same should apply in another Trump term.
The global economy has changed in recent years, adjustments in production methods that began in the years preceding the pandemic have accelerated, and income and consumption patterns have changed. But one thing has remained: the United States is still the largest consumer, and as long as that is the reality, someone will provide the goods the country demands.
Mexico has benefited from the economic growth of its largest trading partner. It’s not just about the relocation, or neashoring, of companies and supply chains; that phenomenon is different. The increase in income, including that derived from the pandemic aid programs in the U.S., has boosted consumption and consequently trade. The trade deficit that so bothered Trump during the 2016 campaign still exists.
But there is an additional ingredient: the growing trade relationship between China and Mexico. And the United States doesn’t like that at all. Trump likes it even less.
Making the assumption that we already know Trump — that we know his ways of negotiating and exerting trade pressure, and therefore we have this scenario figured out — would be naive.
The current disaster of the Democratic Party — despite Biden’s good economic results — has empowered the former president. It won’t be the same Trump if he’s re-elected; it will be a reloaded one.
Will Mexico be ready for that USMCA review in 2026?
This article was originally published in Spanish by El Universal
Valeria Moy has been the director of the Mexican think tank IMCO (Mexican Institute for Competitiveness) since 2020. She is an economist with degrees from the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico (ITAM) and the London School of Economics. She is a regular columnist for El Universal and El País newspapers and was named one of the 100 most powerful women in Mexico by Forbes.
Trumps not winning😂
You do know drugs are illegal in Mexico? Right?
Heard that ALOT in 2015.
Hilary beat Trump by about 3 million votes. Remember?
LOL
Does not matter she won the popular vote, that is not how a President is elected in the U.S.
Trump is down in the polls to Harris. What would a USMCA review, most likely with Harris as president of the United States, entail? An article explaining this situation seems more than warranted.
Keep dreaming , lol
It is total intellectual shit to presume Trump will win the presidency. If he does, not only will Mexico be in trouble, every decen,t moral person in the world -and within the USA will be in trouble.
Decent? Moral?
Since Trump left office, we’re at war all over the world. Sex trafficking, child trafficking and fentanyl are pouring into the U.S.; all of which were relatively nill under Trump . Illegals are being given citizenship compromising
Medicare and social security for legal citizens who contributed earnings over a lifetime. Terrorists pour into the country by special invitation. vets are thrown out of facilities to make room for them. Their travel is paid for wherever they wish to go by hard working U.S. taxpayers . They’re given 3 meals a day, while many Americans remain hungry .
Biden’s grandchildren each have numerous LLC’s each paid for with money from China. And Hunter?! And you’re worried about decent people in harms way under a Trump presidency? Are you kidding me?
Well Randy, it sounds like you’re lined up to visit the new Jim Jones and drink his Kool-aid. Keep believing every demonistic thing he tells you…..that’s how he gains followers who don’t know better
I agree with you Randy.
Name one place where the US is in a war.
As for the sex and drug trafficking you are totally wrong. Relatively nil? Come on get a grip. Trump administration did nothing to deter it, except for idle talk.
The same can be said about all your other arguments. I’m afraid “ cool aid “ is your only option.
It is interesting to me that people with Trump derangement syndrome always fail to provide facts. The simple truth of Trumps trade ( and foreign) policy is reciprocity. Reciprocity means mutual action and reaction. Mexico stand to win on those terms. Their are two areas of conflict with the US: (1) Mexico has ignored their own laws and allowed the millions of immigrants to traverse their country and invade the US; and (2) China.
Absolutely right Frank.
TDS. Trump Derangement Syndrome! Love it.
Biden’s “good economic results”???
Yeah, you know, more government jobs hiring better jobs numbers.
I don’t want Trump to win, but given the undemocratic nature of the Electoral College, I handicap the race at 75% likely he will win. The reason is merely a number: 26%, that’s how many Americans share a ‘Favorable Opinion’ of Vladimir Putin, that is 76MM voters, none of whom will ever vote for a Democrat. I think in the last election Biden won with 71MM votes maybe it was 81MM, my point is that 76MM is likely all Trump needs given the Electoral College, if they are concentrated in the necessary states. So this article is valid as a tool of risk management
Mexico is the number one trading partner of the U.S. However that trade is very out of balance with Mexico benefitting from a very large surplus. A sustainable situation would be more balanced. In the mean time look at how difficult it is to import stuff from the U.S. into Mexico versus the much more two way situation between the U.S. and Canada. Trade between the U.S. and Mexico needs to be much more like the latter than the former.
The USMCA brought jobs to Mexico, Canada and the USA. It brought jobs from Asia. An hour or two of research and anyone with a bit of analytical ability could understand this. The lack of intellect or work ethic, or whatever it is that’s missing in the author of this article, is harmful to Mexico News Daily. It harms credibility.
Somehow these people bring their petty politics to their “analysis” rather than analysis. Hopefully the new owners of MND will kick petty politics to the curb and focus on facts and analysis.
given the views of all here, most not really understanding reality, the main issue with Mexico and the USMCA is the illegal shipment of Chinese goods masquerading as Made in Mexico with the ok of Mexico’s government. China is further taking advantage of nearshoring which was intended to bring American and other companies to leave China and return to North America (US, Canada and Mexico). Again, not an invitation to China. Further the next US President not only has to deal with this improper legalization of Chinese products, also, with the continued shipment of drugs from China via Mexico and the cartels (the other gorilla in the room. Either Trump may do something, maybe. Harris is totally incompetent, no matter all the kumbaya about her (it is time for a woman to be president in the US, but we need to elevate one that is a good leader and competent. Of course Mexico will not fair any better under AMLO’s puppet
Valeria May, “safe” all these “comments” for the record to show them again and to shpw just how “BAD THESE “IDIOTS” MISSED THEIR TARGET AND PREDICTION” when Trump wins’. Lots of Mexicans are going to go into “shocK’ on Nov. 5th. Get ready for the big Republican victory CELEBRATION because the Democratic Party and Kamela Harris are going down in “flames”.Dpn’t “bet” any month on Kemela Harris, you will lose it.
Remember “safe these comments” for the finale “proof of Republican victory.”
” VIVA TRUMP”>
Valeria Moy, “safe” all these “comments” for the record to show them again and to shpw just how “BAD THESE “IDIOTS” MISSED THEIR TARGET AND PREDICTION” when Trump wins’. Lots of Mexicans are going to go into “shocK’ on Nov. 5th. Get ready for the big Republican victory CELEBRATION because the Democratic Party and Kamela Harris are going down in “flames”.Dpn’t “bet” any month on Kemela Harris, you will lose it.
Remember “safe these comments” for the finale “proof of Republican victory.”
” VIVA TRUMP”>
Valeria Moy, “safe” all these “comments” for the record to show them again and to shpw just how “BAD THESE “IDIOTS” MISSED THEIR TARGET AND PREDICTION” when Trump wins’. Lots of Mexicans are going to go into “shocK’ on Nov. 5th. Get ready for the big Republican victory CELEBRATION because the Democratic Party and Kamela Harris are going down in “flames”. Don’t “bet” any money on Kamela Harris, you will lose it.
Remember “safe these comments” for the finale “proof of Republican victory.”
” VIVA TRUMP”>
@Optima: posting your comment 3x doesn’t make your arguments more convincing.
I think Trump will win this election. The U.S. cannot afford four more years of the same or worse.
The phrase “activated in 2026 leading to a USMCA review, most likely with Trump as president of the United States again” made all of the rest of it not worth reading.
Does the author know English? If he does, he is PRESUMING another Trump triumph, which no serious writer would do at this stage of the game. Maybe yes and maybe no, but no good author would base commentaries NOW with the assurance that he will be elected. MOST LIKELY, hell, he wrong!
The author is female-> she not he
from the article . . . “Some say that Mexico fared well under the Trump administration, and even if we concede that assertion, there is no reason why the same should apply in another Trump term.”
. . . Let’s see what happens . . . President Trump did what every good leader of other nations would do, look out for the best interests of said country . . . to do otherwise is destructive. AND ABOUT CHINA, one only has to look at China’s “investments” in Africa, heck even Peru, to see AND understand that Belt and Road Initiative is ONLY TO BENEFIT CHINA . . . ((( honey bee harvesting in Mexico has been destroyed / undermined by imported Chinese “honey” . . . how is that working out for that local Mexican industry . . . ??? China is not “our” friend – whether your are Mexican or estadounidense . . .
Since that article, there’s been a change and her name is Kamala Harris and Trump will self destruct in the coming days up to the election.