Remittances to Mexico decreased 5.6% in the first six months of 2025, with continued losses expected. By year’s end, remittances are expected to be down by 5.8% compared to 2024, according to the Migration and Remittances Yearbook 2025 published by BBVA Research, the BBVA Foundation, and the National Population Council (Conapo).
The report reveals that remittances could total US $61 billion by the end of the year, down from the US $64.7 billion received in 2024. If BBVA’s forecast occurs, the Bank of Mexico has said that this year would be the first time since 2013 that remittances have declined.
Yet, it hasn’t been an entirely good decade for remittances.
BBVA noted that remittances have slowed down on an annual basis since before 2023. Last year, they grew by just 2.3%.
U.S. immigration policy changes by the Trump administration are just part of the story, according to Carlos Serrano, chief economist at BBVA Mexico. In fact, other countries impacted by the same U.S. immigration policies have seen remittances grow: El Salvador and Guatemala both saw 18% increases in the first half of 2025, while remittances to Honduras shot up 25%.
The report attributes the slowdown in Mexico to several factors, including weakness of the U.S.’s labor market, fewer Mexican migrants entering the U.S. and the peso’s appreciation. Trump’s immigration policies have also had an impact, the report found.
Immigrants are leaving US workforce in mass.
Remittance payments US→MX plummeting, down over -2 million from a year ago.
Biggest decline by far in 30+ years – a period that includes a homebuilding depression and a 100-year financial crisis. pic.twitter.com/o49TeyLvOC
— Eric Finnigan (@EricFinnigan) August 3, 2025
“While President Trump is pushing for a restrictive immigration policy, its most direct impact is not the number of arrests and deportations, but rather the climate of fear it creates among the migrant population, which has changed their work and consumption patterns,” the report explains.
According to Serrano, the U.S. administration is unlikely to implement mass deportations due to the economic impact that the accelerated exodus of migrants would cause.
The report shows that Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests averaged 8,000 cases per month between 2023 and 2024. Meanwhile, March this year saw a staggering 19,000. Despite this increase, the number remains relatively low compared to the estimated 11 million undocumented migrants in the U.S.
Serrano also suggests that the flow of remittances won’t increase unless the U.S. labor market recovers, which is contingent upon trade policies.
“If we see very high tariffs on much of the world next year, and if Trump’s tariffs prevail for four years, I don’t think we’ll see a recovery in remittances,” Serrano said.
While remittances represented 3.5% of Mexico’s GDP in 2024, some states depend on them much more heavily and are likely to be hit hard by the decline. These states include Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Zacatecas and Oaxaca, where remittances represent between10% and 14% of each state’s GDP.
With reports from El Financiero
