The amount of money Mexico received in remittances fell 16.2% annually in June, the largest year-over-year decline for any month in more than a decade.

Analysts partially attributed the sharp decline to fear of going out to work among Mexicans in the United States, where the U.S. government is pursuing an aggressive deportation agenda.

The vast majority of remittances to Mexico are sent from the United States, where millions of Mexicans — both documented and undocumented — live and work.

The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reported on Friday that income from remittances totaled US $5.201 billion in June, down from $6.207 billion in the same month of 2024.

The 16.2% year-over-year decline was the biggest annual drop in remittances to Mexico for any month since September 2012. Considering only the month of June, it was the largest annual decrease on record.

“Remittances plummeted in June due to low job creation for Mexicans in the United States and the fear of migrants to go out due to the possibility of being deported,” Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, wrote on X on Friday morning.

Jesús Cervantes González, director of economic statistics at the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies, said “there are indicators that show a weakening of employment for Mexican immigrant workers in the United States.”

“That could be due both to a genuine decrease in demand for such workers and to their irregular presence at their workplaces out of fear of being deported,” he said.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has carried out immigration raids in various U.S. cities this year, including in Los Angeles in June.

United States President Donald Trump has pledged to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history.”

Remittances declined more than 5% in first half of 2025 

In 2024, Mexico received a record-high $64.74 billion in remittances, the 11th consecutive year of growth in such transfers.

But in the first six months of 2025, income from remittances fell 5.6% annually to $29.576 billion, according to Banxico.

The amount of money Mexico received in remittances also declined in annual terms in May, April and February.

Siller, the Banco Base analyst, said that the data for June indicated that “remittances could continue to decline for the rest of the year, affecting consumption in Mexico.”

Analysts from the banks Banorte, BBVA, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan also believe there is a risk that remittances will continue to decline in the second half of 2025, according to the newspaper El Economista.

Such an eventuality would affect millions of Mexican families that depend on remittances to meet their basic needs. It would also affect the Mexican economy, reducing consumption and thus contributing to what is widely forecast to be a lower level of growth in 2025.

In recent years, remittances have represented 3%-4% of Mexico’s GDP.

The United States will impose a 1% tax on remittances sent in cash on Jan. 1, 2026, prompting the Mexican government to promote a government bank card that can help Mexicans living in the United States avoid the tax.

Remittances data in detail 

• The $5.2 billion sent to Mexico in remittances in June came in 12.7 million individual transfers. The number of transfers declined 14.3% compared to June 2024.
• The average individual remittance to Mexico in June was $409, a 2.2% annual decline. While the average remittance declined in annual terms in June, the amount was the highest since August 2024.
• Mexico received 76.19 million individual remittances in the first six months of 2025, a 4.4% decline compared to the first half of 2024.
• The average individual remittance in the first half of 2025 was $388, a 1.3% annual decrease.
• Between January and June, 99.1% of all remittances to Mexico were sent electronically. The remaining 0.9% of remittances were “cash and kind” (0.7%) and money orders (0.2%).

The decline in the number of individual remittances to Mexico indicates that fewer Mexicans sent money home in the first half of the year.

BBVA said that “the recent actions and immigration policies of the United States government are marginally affecting” the transfer of remittances to Mexico.

The bank said that the decline in remittances to Mexico in the first half of the year is “mainly explained by a lower incorporation of new Mexican migrants to the United States labor market.”

The peso value of an average remittance declined on a sequential basis every month in first half of 2025

The Mexican peso appreciated against the US dollar every month in the first half of the year. Therefore, the peso value of the average $388 remittance declined every month on a sequential basis.

What to expect for the Mexican peso in 2025, according to analysts

On Jan. 31, Banxico’s closing USD:MXN exchange rate was 20.69, whereas on April 30 it was 19.61 and on June 30 it was 18.76.

Using those rates, a $388 remittance was worth 8,027 pesos on Jan. 31; 7,608 pesos on April 30; and 7,279 pesos on June 30. Therefore, a $388 remittance was worth 9.3% less in pesos at the end of June compared to the end of January.

With reports from El Economista, La Jornada and Reforma