Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico could increase by US $3-4 billion each year during the six-year term of incoming president Claudia Sheinbaum, according to a soon-to-be deputy economy minister.

Vidal Llerenas, who was granted leave from his position as a federal deputy to join Sheinbaum’s team as deputy economy minister for industry and commerce, made the prediction in Mérida, Yucatán, at the 49th National Convention of the National Council of the Maquiladora and Export Manufacturing Industry (INDEX).

FDI would increase by US $18-24 billion over current levels in 2030 if his prediction comes true.

Foreign investment inflows could thus reach or exceed US $60 billion in 2030, considering that FDI totaled more than $36 billion last year and over $31 billion in the first six months of 2024.

“We have a great opportunity to have a much more dynamic economy, with greater growth,” Llerenas said.

Achieving the FDI growth he predicted will likely depend on companies that have already announced investment plans for Mexico acting on those plans. Companies made investment announcements totaling more than $100 billion last year, and close to $50 billion in the first seven months of this year.

“The Mexican economy must take advantage of the relocation of investment from Asia,” Llerenas said, adding that Mexico could add an additional percentage point to its annual GDP growth rate if it seizes the opportunity.

There is significant concern that the recently-enacted judicial reform, and the likely approval by Congress of other constitutional bills, will hamper Mexico’s capacity to attract FDI, even as many companies seek to nearshore their operations to be closer to the lucrative United States market.

However, Sheinbaum has asserted that investors have nothing to worry about.

She will take office as Mexico’s first female president on Oct. 1.

Ebrard: Sheinbaum to explain judicial reform to big investors

Soon-to-be economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said Thursday that Sheinbaum will meet with representatives of 45 large companies at the U.S.-Mexico CEO Dialogue, an annual meeting that will take place on Oct. 15.

Ebrard, who competed against Sheinbaum for the ruling Morena party’s presidential nomination, said that the future president will tell Mexican and U.S. executives that their current and future investments in Mexico will be respected during her six-year term.

She will explain “how the judicial reform will work,” he added.

“What Mexicans have to do is speak well of our country, attract investment, tell [investors] they have security here,” the former foreign minister said after a meeting with Sheinbaum.

“We’re going to respect their investments,” he stressed.

Ebrard said that other issues including energy and infrastructure will be part of a “direct dialogue” between Sheinbaum and the U.S. and Mexican business community.

He said that federal officials will point out that judicial elections have been held in the United States for years — albeit not for Supreme Court justices and other federal judges.

“Of course we’ve taken into account the experiences they’ve had there,” Ebrard said.

At the event in Mérida, INDEX chief Humberto Martínez Cantú said that the meeting between Sheinbaum and CEOs next month will give confidence and certainty to investors.

In a post to social media, Ebrard predicted that the meeting will be a “success.”

“There is enormous interest in our country from U.S. companies,” he said.

With reports from El Economista, Forbes México, El Financiero and El Universal