The federal Finance Ministry (SHCP) is forecasting that the Mexican economy will grow in the range of 1.8%-2.8% this year and 1.9%-2.9% in 2027.
The forecasts are included in the ministry’s “General Economic Policy Preliminary Guidelines for 2027” document, which was submitted to both houses of Congress on Wednesday and which will inform the 2027 budget. The forecasts for this year and next would represent significantly faster growth than the 0.8% expansion recorded in 2025.
The SHCP’s growth outlook for this year is unchanged from the forecast included in the 2026 budget proposal the ministry submitted to Congress last September. The SHCP hadn’t previously published a growth forecast range for 2027.
The midpoints of the ministry’s growth forecasts are 2.3% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027.
Both midpoints are significantly more optimistic than the consensus forecasts yielded from the Bank of Mexico’s March survey of 41 private sector economic analysis and consulting groups. Those consensus forecasts are 1.49% growth in 2026 and 1.82% growth in 2027.
SHCP: ‘Investment will be one of the main drivers of growth’
In the executive summary of its “General Economic Policy Preliminary Guidelines for 2027” document, the SHCP said that in 2026 and 2027, the Mexican economy “will return to a path of greater dynamism, supported by its solid macroeconomic fundamentals.”
“Mexico has a sustainable public debt, a resilient financial system, historically high levels of foreign direct investment, and a strategic position within North American value chains,” the ministry said.
“Investment will be one of the main drivers of growth. Private investment will rebound as companies adapt to the new regulatory environment and the USMCA review process moves forward. In turn, public and public-private investment will help expand productive capacity, improve connectivity, and reduce bottlenecks in strategic sectors through Plan México and the Infrastructure Investment Plan for Development with Well-being,” the SCHP said.
The ministry also said that household consumption will be “a pillar of economic growth.”
“The sustained rise in real wages, job creation associated with investment, and the continuation of welfare programs will continue to strengthen families’ purchasing power,” the SHCP said.
The ministry also said that Mexico’s export industries “will continue benefiting” the Mexican economy within a context in which Mexico has a “more favorable” tariff environment than its competitors — i.e. when goods are shipped to the United States, the world’s largest economy.
The SCHP said that “productive integration” with the United States and Canada “will continue deepening,” and asserted that “high-tech sectors will continue to gain prominence.”
Mexico’s soaring tech exports have taken the lead over the automotive sector
It also said that the Mexican economy will get a boost this year from the FIFA men’s World Cup, which Mexico will co-host with the United States and Canada in June and July. Millions of tourists are expected to visit Mexico during the tournament.
While its overall tone was optimistic, the SHCP did acknowledge that “sources of volatility associated with geopolitical conflicts, disruptions to strategic global trade routes, and changes in U.S. trade policy persist.”
Nevertheless, the ministry said that Mexico has economic “strengths that allow it to face up to the external environment with a greater capacity to respond.”
The SHCP’s other forecasts
The Finance Ministry made a range of other forecasts in the document it submitted to Congress on Wednesday. Among those forecasts are the following:
- Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate will be 3.7% at the end of 2026 and 3% at the end of 2027. (The headline rate was 4.63% in the first half of March.)
- The US dollar-Mexican peso exchange rate will be 18.4 at the end of 2026 and 18.6 at the end of 2027. (The peso closed at 17.83 to the dollar on Wednesday, according to the Bank of Mexico.)
- The Bank of Mexico’s benchmark interest rate will be 6.3% at the end of 2026 and 5.5% at the end of 2027. (The central bank’s key rate is currently set at 6.75%.)
- Public debt will be 54.7% of GDP at the end of 2026 and 55% at the end of 2027.
With reports from La Jornada, El Financiero and El Sol de México
