Mexico experienced economic growth of 1% in February compared to January, according to data released by national statistics agency INEGI, ending two months of negative growth that contributed to fears of recession.
INEGI’s data indicates a mixed performance for Mexico’s economy, with month-on-month growth — led by 2.9% increase in industrial production — offset by year-on-year contraction.
Surpassing analysts’ expectations of 0.6% growth, INEGI’s global economic activity index (IGAE) indicated 1% month-on-month growth. However, compared to the same month last year the Mexican economy shrank 0.7% in real terms, IGAE data showed.
Still, the 1% growth compared to January was Mexico’s best month-on-month performance since April 2023 when INEGI reported 1.7% growth.
While construction (2.8%) and manufacturing (2.9%) grew month-on-month, growth was less positive year-on-year — construction up just 0.5%; manufacturing up 1.8%.
Trade turmoil related to U.S. tariffs also impacted the IGAE numbers, as trade tensions ramped up in February. U.S. President Donald Trump applied 25% tariffs on all Mexican imports on Feb. 1. He then added 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on Feb. 11.
The impact can be seen in the three-month moving average of exports, an indicator that calculates the average value of exports over a specific period. It helps smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight underlying trends.
Mexico’s three-month moving average of total exports fell 0.8% in February, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for a large share of exports, declined 0.6%, and oil exports fell 5.7%.
At the same time, the three-month moving average of Mexico’s industrial production, which includes oil and gas extraction in addition to construction and manufacturing, ticked up a mere 0.1% in February after contracting 0.7% in January.
INEGI reported that primary activities including fishing, stock-raising and agriculture advanced 1% month-on-month, but were down 4.3% year-on-year.
Tertiary activities, or the service sector, experienced 0.6% growth as compared to January 2025 and was up 1% over February 2024, led by recreational, cultural and sporting activities which grew by 5.4%. Professional, scientific and technical services climbed 4.1%.
With reports from La Jornada, El Financiero and El Economista
Our Mexican business owners, and we know many in our beachside community, all have said sales were down for Semana Santa vs last year. I’d guess worries about the economy could explain some of that. In the long term tariffs will fail and sanity will return but unfortunately Mexican is not going to escape unscathed.