Mexico experienced economic growth of 1% in February compared to January, according to data released by national statistics agency INEGI, ending two months of negative growth that contributed to fears of recession.
INEGI’s data indicates a mixed performance for Mexico’s economy, with month-on-month growth — led by 2.9% increase in industrial production — offset by year-on-year contraction.
Surpassing analysts’ expectations of 0.6% growth, INEGI’s global economic activity index (IGAE) indicated 1% month-on-month growth. However, compared to the same month last year the Mexican economy shrank 0.7% in real terms, IGAE data showed.
Still, the 1% growth compared to January was Mexico’s best month-on-month performance since April 2023 when INEGI reported 1.7% growth.
While construction (2.8%) and manufacturing (2.9%) grew month-on-month, growth was less positive year-on-year — construction up just 0.5%; manufacturing up 1.8%.
Trade turmoil related to U.S. tariffs also impacted the IGAE numbers, as trade tensions ramped up in February. U.S. President Donald Trump applied 25% tariffs on all Mexican imports on Feb. 1. He then added 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports on Feb. 11.
The impact can be seen in the three-month moving average of exports, an indicator that calculates the average value of exports over a specific period. It helps smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight underlying trends.
Mexico’s three-month moving average of total exports fell 0.8% in February, according to data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for a large share of exports, declined 0.6%, and oil exports fell 5.7%.
At the same time, the three-month moving average of Mexico’s industrial production, which includes oil and gas extraction in addition to construction and manufacturing, ticked up a mere 0.1% in February after contracting 0.7% in January.
INEGI reported that primary activities including fishing, stock-raising and agriculture advanced 1% month-on-month, but were down 4.3% year-on-year.
Tertiary activities, or the service sector, experienced 0.6% growth as compared to January 2025 and was up 1% over February 2024, led by recreational, cultural and sporting activities which grew by 5.4%. Professional, scientific and technical services climbed 4.1%.
With reports from La Jornada, El Financiero and El Economista
