Inflation in Mexico moderated again during the first half of July — the eighth consecutive 15-day period in which the rate declined — settling close to the Bank of Mexico’s target. 

The national statistics institute INEGI on Thursday reported that the National Consumer Price Index rose 0.07% compared to the second half of June, bringing the annual headline inflation rate to 3.10%. This is the lowest for any quincena, as the half-month period is known, since the second half of December 2020.

The data reflected a slowdown compared to the 3.37% annual rate recorded for the month of June. It also compared favorably on an annual basis. During the first quincena of July 2025, the bi-weekly inflation rate was 0.15% and the annual rate was 3.55%.

INEGI found that the smaller price increase in early July was mainly related to the behavior of the non-core component, which includes volatile prices such as agricultural products, energy and government-regulated tariffs. 

This index decreased by 0.23% during the quincena and registered a growth of just 0.21% compared to the same period last year.

Prices for agricultural products fell 0.57% biweekly and accumulated a year-on-year drop of 3.53%. Within this group, fruits and vegetables decreased 1.50% compared to the second half of June.

Tomatoes contributed the most to containing inflation, with a bi-weekly price reduction of 13.18%, while serrano peppers (5.17%), tomatillos (3.24%) and avocados (2.59%) also saw price decreases.

Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile food and fuel prices and is closely monitored by the central bank as a better indicator of the medium-term price trajectory, rose slightly to 3.95% year-on-year, up from 3.94% in June.

Within this component — which increased by 0.16% during the first half of July — goods prices rose by 3.52% annually, while services became 4.36% more expensive.

Processed foods, beverages and tobacco registered an annual inflation of 4.89%; tuition fees increased 5.95%, while the remaining services (restaurants, medical consultations, telephone and tourist activities) increased by 4.83%.

With this latest reading, consumer prices have moderated for eight consecutive fortnights, including four quincenas that hit the central bank’s inflation target of between 3 and 4%.

After its June 24-25 monetary policy meeting, in which it left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.50%, the central bank indicated that it will await clearer signs that inflation is converging steadily toward the target.

With reports from La Jornada, Expansión and El Financiero