On Feb. 6-7, Mexico News Daily and Querencia hosted the “Future of Mexico Forum” at the Querencia Private Golf & Beach Club in Los Cabos, Baja California Sur. The forum brought together leaders from Mexico and the United States to discuss the future of Mexico across a diverse range of topics. As part of this Forum, the MND team conducted a series of exclusive interviews with each of the speakers and will be sharing the highlights with you in this series.
The first interview we’re presenting is with José Antonio Meade Kuribreña, a cabinet minister in the 2006-12 federal government led by former president Felipe Calderón and in the 2012-18 government led by former president Enrique Peña Nieto. Meade held four different ministerial portfolios between 2011 and 2017: energy, finance (twice), foreign affairs and social development. In 2018, he was a candidate for president, representing the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Meade was born in Mexico City and has degrees in economics and law, including a PhD in economics from Yale University.
At the MND/Querencia “Future of Mexico Forum,” José Antonio Meade engaged in a dynamic discussion on international issues related to Mexico with Elliot Gerson, executive vice president at the Aspen Institute.
After his “Mexico on the Global Stage” conversation with Gerson, Meade spoke exclusively to Mexico News Daily, discussing a range of topics, including Mexico’s relationship with the United States, global trade and China.
This article draws on both Meade’s comments in his discussion with Gerson and his remarks to Mexico News Daily.
Meade ‘cautiously optimistic’ on the near-term future of the Mexico-US relationship
Despite tariff threats, security challenges and the possibility of mass deportations of Mexicans from the United States, Meade told Mexico News Daily that he is “cautiously optimistic” about the Mexico-U.S. relationship during the presidencies of Claudia Sheinbaum and Donald Trump.
It is not surprising that the bilateral agenda is dominated by the issues of drug trafficking, arms trafficking and migration, he said.
“For many years we have not found the right policy set to move us where we need to be” on those issues, Meade said.
“It’s hard to talk about climate change and biodiversity and empowerment and entrepreneurship and doing research together … if we don’t get the fundamentals of security and migration right,” he added.
Meade expressed the view that Mexico will benefit from the pressure Trump exerts on the Mexican government as he seeks to stem the flow of migrants and drugs to the United States.
“I think Mexico has to change with a deep conviction that that is what helps Mexico,” he said.
“… I think that the Trump administration is agnostic in terms of precisely what policies [are needed], but Trump has stressed that we need to do things differently, and it would be very hard to argue that those elements he’s stressing are not issues where there are huge opportunities,” Meade said.
“… Now it’s up to Mexico to decide … how to get to a better equilibrium in terms of migration and security,” he said.
Meade on Mexico-US trade: ‘Geography really binds us together’
Meade emphasized the importance of Mexico to global manufacturing and trade, asserting that it would be “very hard” to find another country that plays such an “integral role” in the value chains of “so many regions of the world.”
With regard to Trump’s plan to impose 25% blanket tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States, he said that the U.S. president uses the “credible threat” of doing so to get what he wants from Mexico — most recently, that was 10,000 additional National Guard troops at Mexico’s northern border.
Sheinbaum reaches deal with Trump to postpone 25% tariffs on Mexican exports
The proposed tariffs are currently on pause thanks to an agreement Sheinbaum reached with Trump, a deal that feeds into Meade’s “cautious optimism” that the bilateral relationship will be successful in the years ahead.
With regard to the trade relationship between Mexico and the United States — the countries are each other’s largest trade partners — Meade noted that “geography really binds us together.”
He said that Mexico can, and should, continue to deepen its trade relationship with the United States, but also advocated an increase in “intra Latin America trade.”
“… I think the opportunity for Mexico is to convert our belongings” in different regions of the world — Latin America and the Asia-Pacific, for example — “into an expanded opportunity set,” Meade said.
“We’ve done that [but] I think there is potential to do more than we’ve done,” he said.
A North America-China decoupling ‘doesn’t make sense’
The United States-China trade war escalated this month, and Mexico is seeking to reduce its reliance on Chinese imports, but according to Meade, “it doesn’t make sense … to talk about a decoupling of China with the North American region.”
“What I do think is that there are some specific issues where we would like to have North American standards,” he said, referring to limitations on Chinese investment and imports from sensitive sectors such as telecommunications, semiconductors and electric vehicles.
“I think the relationship … [between] Mexico and China is going to be nuanced by identifying some sectors where there will be clear benefits for both and by identifying some restrictions that result from being part of the North American region,” Meade said.
“But I don’t think it is feasible or desirable for North America to decouple itself from China,” he said.
Sheinbaum’s international engagement ‘a welcome shift’
Meade used the Mexican proverb Ni tanto que queme al santo, ni tanto que no lo alumbre (literally “Not so much that it burns the saint, nor so little that it doesn’t illuminate him) to describe the “happy medium” role Mexico should seek to play on the world stage.
Former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador eschewed most international events during his six-year term, preferring instead to focus on domestic issues, whereas his predecessor, Enrique Peña Nieto, was a very frequent international traveler during his presidency.
“My impression is that there is someplace in the middle for Mexico’s foreign policy and Mexico’s place in the world. … Having a full-blown global aspiration did not have political support [in the past], but completely disengaging resulted in a very clear cost to Mexico,” Meade said.
“So finding a place in the middle, finding a place where Mexico does engage better in the global context [is advisable],” he said.
“I think that the fact that Claudia Sheinbaum went to the G20 [Summit in Brazil in November] was a very good idea, very positive for Mexico,” Meade said.
“… I think it’s a welcome shift from the Sheinbaum administration, to engage more with what’s happening in the global arena,” he said.
By Mexico News Daily chief staff writer Peter Davies ([email protected])
