Mexico’s economy grew slightly above estimates in the fourth quarter, registering its largest quarterly expansion in more than a year and boosting annual growth from the previously reported 0.7% to 0.8% in 2025.
The national statistics agency INEGI reported that Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) advanced 0.9% in Q4 2025, due to a favorable revision of primary activities. This marked a considerable improvement from a revised 0.1% growth in the third quarter.
📊 Hoy el INEGI publicó datos del PIB de 2025. El año pasado, la economía creció 0.8%, se trata de la tasa más baja desde 2020.
Por componente, la actividad primaria creció 4.0%, la secundaria cayó 1.1% y la terciaria se incrementó 1.5% anual. pic.twitter.com/tFfLlimc95
— IMCO (@imcomx) February 23, 2026
INEGI’s preliminary data and economists polled by Reuters had forecast 0.8% fourth-quarter growth, but seasonally adjusted data found that primary activities — which include agriculture, fishing and livestock — fell by only 1.4%, a smaller decline than the 2.7% initially calculated.
Conversely, INEGI found that secondary activities (manufacturing) and tertiary activities (which include services) each increased by 0.9%, unchanged from the preliminary estimate.
On an annual basis (that is, compared to the fourth quarter of 2024), the economy expanded by 1.8% during the most recent October-December period, also better than the 1.6% initially projected.
In nominal terms, the economy reached a value of 36.3 trillion pesos (US $2.1 trillion) during Q4 2025. INEGI reported that this was 4.6% higher than the amount recorded in Q4 2024.
The positive data reflected a degree of resilience in the Mexican economy in the face of a trade war with the U.S. that caused uncertainty in supply chains and impacted export demand due to tariffs, all of which combined to produce economic headwinds in the third quarter.
In a separate statement, INEGI indicated that GDP expanded in December, with all three sectors experiencing growth. Economic activity grew 0.4% month-on-month — up from the preliminary estimate of 0.2%.
Reuters reported that analysts remain cautious about Mexico’s economy in 2026, “expecting a slow track amid high uncertainty” related to the upcoming review of the trade deal with the U.S. and Canada.
In contrast, the International Monetary Fund forecast 1.5% growth for Mexico in 2026.
With reports from Reuters and El Economista
