The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its economic growth forecast for Mexico this year at 1.5% in its most recent World Economic Outlook, while estimating final 2025 GDP growth at 0.6%.

In its outlook for G-20 economies, the IMF predicted that Mexico’s GDP would improve this year thanks to the gradual easing of monetary policy and a “broadly neutral” fiscal policy, according to the IMF’s Deputy Economic Studies Director Petya Koeva.

The global economy has proved surprisingly resilient, says Petya Koeva Brooks, the Deputy Director of IMF at the annual World Economic Forum.

The IMF has upgraded their forecast to 3.3% growth this year, but say that opposing forces are at play such as trade and policy… pic.twitter.com/oV03Bv9na0

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The agency’s forecast is higher than that of other financial institutions, with the most recent Citi survey, for example, putting Mexico’s growth outlook at 0.3% for 2025 and 1.3% for 2026. 

Mexico’s GDP growth was revised down in 2025 due to the tightening of fiscal policy, the level of monetary restriction, and “headwinds from trade tensions,” Koeava said during the Outlook presentation. 

The final GDP figure for 2025 will be published in mid-February, with Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) expected to release a preliminary estimate on Jan. 30. 

The IMF expects Mexico’s economy to improve in 2027, with a growth forecast of 2.1%, which would be the highest growth rate in three years.

The global forecast is 3.3%

On a global scale, economic growth is expected to reach 3.3% this year and 3.2% in 2027. The main threat to this growth would be  an escalation of geopolitical tension accompanied by higher tariffs, according to the IMF’s Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

“This steady performance on the surface results from the balancing of divergent forces,” the IMF report states. “Headwinds from shifting trade policies are offset by tailwinds from surging investment related to technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), more so in North America and Asia than in other regions, as well as fiscal and monetary support, broadly accommodative financial conditions, and adaptability of the private sector.”

 The IMF predicts that GDP growth in the United States will rise to 2.4% in 2026, compared to an estimated 2.1% last year, before falling to 2% growth in 2027, which would be its lowest figure in four years. 

Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to achieve moderate growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. However, economic growth in Mexico and Brazil, the region’s two biggest economies, is expected to be lower than the regional average, with Brazil achieving an estimated 1.6% GDP growth in 2026.

The escalation of geopolitical tensions in Latin America, as well as other regions of the world, could lead to greater economic uncertainty and trigger substantial negative supply shocks, according to the IMF outlook. 

With reports from El Economista and Bloomberg Línea