Tuesday, July 23, 2024

AMLO’s job creation numbers were creative: it was 3rd worst quarter in 10 years

President López Obrador’s claim yesterday that the number of jobs created in the first quarter of this year was the highest in 10 years was based on creative accounting. In short, it was false.

The president told reporters at his morning press conference that data from the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) showed that 269,143 jobs were created in the January-March quarter.

The figure cited by López Obrador is correct, but in order to make the assertion that the first-quarter job numbers are the best in 10 years, the government used a figure that represents average job growth in the first three months of each year over the past decade.

In other words, job growth figures for the first quarter of every year between 2009 and 2018 were added then divided by 10, giving an average of 259,744, which is 9,000 fewer jobs than the number recorded between January and March this year.

However, the number of jobs created in the first quarters of each of the past four years as well as 2012 and 2010 was actually higher than this year.

If the first three months of 2009 – when 138,291 jobs were lost as a result of an international economic downturn – are excluded from the equation, average first-quarter job growth over the past decade is in fact 13% higher than that recorded from January through March.

This year’s figure for March was 48,515, the worst March for job creation in 10 years, and 46% less than the same month last year.

Valeria Moy, general director of the think tank México ¿cómo vamos?, said in an interview that she believed that the use of an average figure to support López Obrador’s claim was “wrong,” although not a “serious” offense.

“. . . I think that averages provide information but they [also] deceive a little bit,” Moy said, adding that they can be manipulated “according to what you want” to show.

Late yesterday afternoon, IMSS issued a statement saying that the job growth figures hadn’t included 106,625 people who have started formal jobs under the auspices of the apprenticeship scheme known as Youths Building the Future.

However, even if that number is added to the figure cited by López Obrador, the total still falls short of the 377,694 jobs created in the first three months of 2017, the veritably best first-quarter period for employment growth in the past 10 years.

Source: Animal Político (sp), El Economista (sp)

Have something to say? Paid Subscribers get all access to make & read comments.
A bird flies over the wetlands with the city skyline in the background

Director says Lake Texcoco Ecological Park will be inaugurated in August

The huge recreational park and reserve covers an area 17 times larger than Mexico City's Chapultepec Park.
The authorities confiscated 3,920 kilograms of material presumed to be methamphetamine, along with precursor chemicals and lab materials.

Authorities shut down second-largest drug lab found during AMLO’s term

The bust is the second significant blow to drug cartels this month after the Navy seized nearly 90 tonnes of a precursor chemical in Colima.
Inland Mexico should prepare for heavy to intense rainfall throughout the rest of the week.

The week starts off wet and windy across Mexico

Some areas will see over 100 millimeters of accumulated rainfall as two new tropical waves move over Mexico.